With the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup close, we look at the Opta supercomputer’s Group C predictions for Brazil, Morocco, Haiti and Scotland. Who will make it out of the group and reach the knockout stage?
You could make a strong case that Group C is the most fascinating at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Brazil, the most successful nation in the competition’s history, are the headliner, and Morocco, the reigning AFCON champions, join them. Scotland end a 28-year hiatus from football’s biggest international tournament, while minnows Haiti make a first appearance since 1974.
Will Brazil cruise through as expected under Carlo Ancelotti? Could Morocco emerge as their greatest challengers, or will Scotland make up for lost time?
We use the Opta supercomputer’s predictions to preview Group C and answer those questions and more.
World Cup Group C Predictions
Brazil progressed from Group C in 96.9% of pre-tournament simulations, topping the group 60.2% of the time. Morocco are deemed the most likely side to automatically join Brazil in the round of 32 (88.7%), with Scotland doing so in 65.6% of simulations. Haiti, with 15.8%, have the lowest chance of making the round of 32 of any of the 48 teams at the tournament.This is a landmark tournament for Brazil. Their head coach, Carlo Ancelotti, is set to become the first non-Brazilian to lead the Seleção at a World Cup.
One of the most decorated managers in the history of club football, Ancelotti has now turned his attention to the international stage. He could become the third coach to win both the World Cup and UEFA Champions League/European Cup, after Marcello Lippi and Vicente del Bosque.
The Italian could not have chosen a nation with greater pedigree. Brazil are the only team to have taken part in every single World Cup since its original edition in 1930, with the 2026 edition marking their 23rd consecutive participation. They have won the competition a record five times and have the best win rate in World Cup history (67% – 76 wins from 114 matches).
It is therefore not a surprise to learn that they are tipped to win Group C, something they achieved in 60.2% of pre-tournament simulations.
More recently, however, success on the biggest stage has eluded them. Brazil have not lifted the trophy since 2002, and their five unsuccessful tournaments since then equal their longest run without winning the tournament.
Meanwhile, they finished a disappointing fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying, scoring only 1.3 goals per game, their worst performance since the current qualification format was introduced 30 years ago.
This goes some way to explaining why such giants of international football are only rated as the sixth most likely team to win the 2026 World Cup by the supercomputer (6.4%). Expectations will be high for Ancelotti, but he clearly has a tough job on his hands.
Morocco are expected to provide Brazil’s strongest competition in Group C; they progressed from the group in 88.7% of simulations and came first in 28.6% of them.
They can be considered the most dangerous African representatives at the World Cup. Morocco are the reigning AFCON champions after being declared winners of the 2025 edition, while their remarkable fourth-place finish at the 2022 World Cup is the best performance by an African team in the competition’s history.
Walid Regragui oversaw both of those achievements, as well as Morocco’s flawless qualifying campaign in which they won all eight games, but he has since been replaced by Mohamed Ouahbi, who guided the country to victory at the Under-20 World Cup last year.
Scotland return to the World Cup stage after a 28-year hiatus, with this their first participation since 1998, when they were also in a group with Brazil and Morocco. They have a 65.6% chance of making it to the round of 32 this time.
No one can deny that they deserve to be here – they topped their World Cup qualifying group for the first time since 1982 – but they certainly had to work for it.
Scotland had the lowest goal difference (+6 – 13 scored, 7 conceded) among all directly qualified sides in UEFA World Cup qualifying, as well as the lowest difference between expected goals and expected goals conceded (+0.8 – 9.4 xG, 8.6 xG against).
Following Euro 2020 and Euro 2024, Steve Clarke will lead Scotland at a third major tournament, more than any other head coach for the nation. If previous participations are anything to go by, he won’t have it easy.
Indeed, Scotland have failed to advance from the first round in any of their previous eight appearances at the World Cup, more often than any other side yet to make it to the second round.
Haiti round out the group, but expectations are understandably low for a side who have only previously participated at a World Cup once, back in 1974. The 52-year gap between their first appearance (1974) and second appearance (2026) is the joint-fourth longest in the tournament’s history.
At 15.8%, Haiti have the lowest chance of making the round of 32 of any of the 48 teams at the tournament. They sensationally won Group C in only 1.1% of the 10,000 supercomputer simulations.
*All prediction data is accurate as of 3 June 2026.
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World Cup 2026: Group C Predictions and Preview Opta Analyst.
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