In the first days of the Iran war, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States would have “uncontested airspace” within a week. On Mar. 13, he claimed that Iran had “no air defenses.” President Donald Trump said as recently as Wednesday similarly said that Iran doesn’t “have any spotters, they don't have anti-aircraft, they don't have radar,” and that U.S. aircraft were “just floating over the top looking for whatever we want, and we're hitting it."
Those characterizations of complete U.S. air dominance over Iran were undermined on Friday after two U.S. warplanes were downed within hours of each other. An F-15E fighter jet was shot down over southern Iran on the same day as the Iranian military claimed it brought down an A-10 Thunderbolt with a surface-to-air missile near the Strait of Hormuz.
While the Pentagon has not yet released any public statements on the two incidents, U.S. officials told the New York Times that the A-10 crashed in Kuwait and the pilot was rescued. The F-15 pilot was also rescued, but a search-and-rescue mission is underway for the second crew member.
Read More: A Search is Underway for a Downed U.S. Crew Member in Iran. Here’s What the Mission Could Entail
Two Black Hawk helicopters were reportedly hit while trying to locate the F-15 crew member, but were able to keep flying, according to the Washington Post.
The apparent miscalculation by U.S. military planners regarding Iran’s air defense capabilities comes as Trump is weighing a much deeper involvement in the conflict, and may complicate his plans.
On Saturday, he threatened Iran with “hell” if it didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz.
“Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!” he said on Truth Social.
On Saturday, Iran’s military said it had used a new air defense system to target a U.S. fighter jet, and that the country would "definitely achieve full control" over its airspace, according to Iranian state media.
"The enemy should know that we will achieve the complete control of the sky of our country with new air defence systems built by the young scientists and proud youth of this country and one after another in the field of action... and prove the humiliation of the enemy to the world more than before," said a spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya joint military command.
Iran had built a layered air defense system of short, medium and long-range surface-to-air missiles, both domestically and internationally produced. The Bavar-373 long-range mobile missile system is the most advanced it produces domestically. That system operates alongside the Russian-made S-300.
Israel claimed to have destroyed much of Iran’s S-300 capabilities during the June 2025 attack on its nuclear facilities, and both the U.S. and Israel spent the first days of the war concentrating firepower on destroying its air defenses.
But the events of the last few days suggest Iran still retains some air defense capability.
“Make no mistake, there still are select surface-to-air missile systems that can work…plus those shoulder-launched missiles that if you’re flying at a low enough altitude could still pose a threat,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a conservative Washington think tank, told Fox News on Friday.
A February Financial Times report found that Iran entered into a multi-million dollar arms deal with Russia to acquire thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles to bolster and rebuild its air defense systems. That system, the Verba, is one of Russia’s most modern air-defense systems. It is a shoulder-mounted system that fires infrared-guided missiles capable of targeting cruise missiles, low-flying aircrafts and drones.
Although that deal runs from 2027 to 2029, the Financial Times said that some shipments could have arrived early. Russia has also reportedly supplied Iran with intelligence on U.S. military assets, including the locations of warships and aircraft.
The loss of the F-15 was the first known instance of a U.S. combat aircraft going down in Iranian territory since the conflict began.
The Pentagon and the White House did not immediately respond to TIME’s request for comment.
U.S. Central Command said in a statement Wednesday that in the current war, the U.S. has flown more than 13,000 missions, striking more than 12,300 targets. It has also flown B-52 bombers, which are much slower and more vulnerable to air defense systems—a sign that Iran’s air defense systems have been significantly degraded.
A race to find the missing American crew member
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it was searching the area near where the pilot's plane came down. Meanwhile, Iranian officials issued a public plea Friday for locals to go out and find the F-15 crew member, offering a reward that would equal $60,000.
Rescue operations continued into Saturday to find the missing crew member of the F-15.
“It is a very complex effort,” Brigadier General Houston Cantwell told TIME on Apr. 3 when asked about the process of rescuing a crew in enemy territory. “The most important piece of information is what is the location of the air crew. And that piece of information is so hard to get.”
Air Force troops, like the missing F-15 crew member, undergo mandatory training to prepare for scenarios like this, called SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape). Once the crew member is located, they will likely receive a “rescue package,” experts told TIME, including equipment and personnel that could help them escape.
According to Major General Thomas Kunkel, who TIME spoke to on Friday, this rescue crew is likely 10- to 20 members, deployed in a helicopter, potentially with an electronic jamming aircraft and a heavily armored A-10 designed to attack ground forces, both providing ground cover for the operation.
During the rescue operation on Friday, a U.S. Air Force UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter was hit by Iranian ground fire, U.S. and Israeli officials said, but the helicopter crew was able to safely withdraw into Iraq.
Israel has ceased its bombings over the area where the missing crew member is believed to be lost in an attempt to help the rescue operation, according to the New York Times.
Cantwell’s biggest concern for this particular rescue mission is the possibility of capture, as he says that “Iranians would want nothing more than to get their hands on one of our aviators.”
Iran’s state media released a video of what it claimed showed a surface-to-air missile shooting down the A-10 on Friday. State media claimed that the plane was shot down between Qeshm and Hengam islands. U.S. officials have not commented on how the plane was brought down.
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