NBA Rookies Review: Who’s Outperforming Expectations the Most This Season ...Middle East

Using advanced data, we can evaluate which NBA rookies have exceeded the expectations of their draft slot the most in the 2025-26 season.

With the NBA regular season nearing its conclusion, it seemed the right time again to conduct a rookie review.

Our Opta Analyst data allows us to do the end-of-season rookie analysis a little differently. No arbitrary storylines. No over-indexing on simple measures like PPG. Instead, the advanced data guides the analysis – something we also did with NBA rookies last season.

Another thing we can do differently is to judge rookies based on where they were selected in the NBA Draft. After all, you can’t reasonably have the same expectations for a late second-rounder as you do for someone who’s selected at the top of the lottery.

To do this, we will use our all-in-one metric DRIP, which projects a player’s contribution to a team’s plus/minus per 100 possessions.

We took the average DRIP of past rookies at the end of those seasons based on the spot they were selected in the draft. To avoid getting too granular, we split certain ranges of picks into groups. In total, we have 11 different groups: picks 1-5 have their own group, 6-10 is a group, 11-14, 15-20, 21-30, 31-45 and 46-60.

Taking the data back to the 2012-13 season gives us enough of a range to do some healthy analysis:

Average DRIP for NBA Rookies

For the sake of simplicity, we are not factoring in any undrafted NBA rookies or ones who have played under 200 minutes. The 2025-26 season data is through March 29.

Honorable Mentions

First, let’s shout out a couple players who are outperforming projected expectations and barely missed the upper tier.

It seems popular rhetoric is correct that this class is a pretty solid group. Last year (an admittedly underwhelming rookie class), there were only six players with a DRIP score that was above average for their draft position. This year, we have 18 such players.

Anyway, some rookies who just barely missed the top six are Hugo Gonzalez (Boston Celtics), Ace Bailey (Utah Jazz), VJ Edgecombe (Philadelphia 76ers), Egor Demin (Brooklyn Nets) and Nique Clifford (Sacramento Kings). Clifford, picked 24th, was long viewed for outperforming his draft spot.

Dishonorable Mentions

With this kind of category, you have to point out the players who have been the biggest underperformers because, well, everyone is wondering!

Before we do that, though, it’s worth pointing out Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg (one of the most-hyped No. 1 overall draft picks in recent memory) is actually considered an underachiever in this exercise. Despite being the leading rookie scorer (20.4 points per game) and playing with an all-around style, his DRIP (0.62) is 0.24 points below the average top pick, as our metric views him as only a slight positive on both sides of the ball at this point in time.

With that said, this year’s dishonorable mentions are Jeremiah Fears (New Orleans Pelicans), Ben Saraf (Nets), Dylan Harper (a surprise considering how much he plays on the surging San Antonio Spurs), Nolan Traore (Nets) and Carter Bryant (Spurs).

6. Cedric Coward, Memphis (DRIP Difference: +0.63)

In a season filled with injuries, shameless tanking and the departure of franchise pillar Jaren Jackson Jr., Coward has been a massive bright spot for the Grizzlies. After being a relative unknown in the draft build-up – he played collegiately at Williamette, Eastern Washington and Washington State – Coward has emerged as a perfect two-way wing to build around.

The 6-foot-6 small forward’s offensive and defensive DRIP are right around neutral (very impressive for a first-year player), he has good shooting indicators (including 84.1% free throw shooter), a firm frame and the ability to create scoring opportunities on his own (as evidenced by his 66.4% conversion rate on shots at the rim).

Here’s a wild stat: Despite being 25-49 with a bottom-10 net rating, Memphis is +25 in Coward’s 1,479 minutes this season. Each of the nine other Grizzles with 750+ minutes is -48 or worse in plus/minus.

5. Javon Small, Memphis (+0.68)

You have to really feel for the Grizzlies. They do such a great job of evaluating talent and drafting the right guys, but those players just never seem to stay healthy.

Small was selected in the back half of the second round (48th overall). Historically, those players post a -1.1 DRIP in their rookie campaign. Small isn’t a positive, but his -0.42 DRIP is good for the fifth-best difference on our list.

In a world in which smaller guards are going out of style faster than box office comedies (see his own teammate, Ja Morant), the 6-foot-3, 190-pound Small is finding a way to make a big impact.

Think of Small as a small-er (have to stop it with the word play, I know) version of Coward. He can defend (69th percentile steal rate), shoot (44.6% on 3-pointers) and create with the ball in his hands (his pull-up shooting numbers are nearly identical to – spoiler alert – the player who finished first in our list).

The Grizzlies are struggling, of course, but between Small and Coward, they will (hopefully) have something to root for in the near future.

4. Jamir Watkins, Washington (+0.69)

We won’t fault you if you haven’t used your time on NBA League Pass to catch up with the Wizards. But they have a rookie who is lapping relative expectations, and it isn’t the player they used the sixth overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft (Tre Johnson). Rather, it’s Watkins, the No. 43 selection. 

Somehow, on the team that ranks dead last in defensive TRACR (Team Roster Adjusted for Conference and Roster) and allowed Bam Adebayo to make NBA history, Watkins has been a positive defender. Do you know how hard that is to do on an awful defensive team?

The 6-7 shooting guard has a 1.04 D-DRIP. To put this in perspective, that’s first among all Wizards who have played at least 300 minutes. That mark also ranks third among drafted NBA rookies (fourth overall) and is good for 60th in the entire NBA (minimum 500 minutes played).

In a spot where you typically aren’t getting a real NBA player, the Wizards nabbed one who will be in the league for a long time.

3. Collin Murray-Boyles, Toronto (+1.26)

We mentioned Watkins is third among drafted rookies in D-DRIP. Guess who sits at the top of that list? Yep, Murray-Boyles.

The 6-8 power forward is already a special defender (31st in the NBA in D-DRIP). He can generate turnovers (75th percentile steal rate) and block shots (90th percentile block rate), and he’s one of the few players who can credibly guard all five positions.

Murray-Boyles has been so good that he’s already started 22 games on a Raptors team that seems destined to make the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2022 (sixth in the Eastern Conference in TRACR).

In the draft, a winning team rarely gets a player (at any pick) who’s ready to start in Year 1. Offensively, he still has a way to go, but Murray-Boyles is not the last player on our list to fit that description.

2. Will Richard, Golden State (+1.69)

It’s easy to be a fan of Richard’s game. The former NCAA champion at Florida was almost not drafted (taken 56th overall), but now, he’s one of the few players keeping the injury-plagued Warriors semi-afloat.

Richard, a 6-3 shooting guard, has demonstrated good touch (85.2% on free throws), the ability to defend at a high level (second among drafted NBA rookies in D-DRIP), and an affinity for operating as a cutter in Golden State’s motion-heavy offense (72.9% on shots at the rim, which is second among drafted rookies with at least 200 minutes).

Richard is basically a more-slender version of the player archetype we outlined with Coward. Three-and-D wings are always in demand on winning teams, and if the Warriors didn’t have both Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry go down with injuries, Richard would likely be getting playoff minutes in a tightly contested first-round matchup for one of the most successful franchises of this century.

1. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte (+1.95)

Did you think it could be anyone else? Knueppel is not just good for NBA rookies, he’s already playing on a fringe All-Star level. This season, Knueppel ranks 21st in the entire league in DRIP and 17th in offensive DRIP.

For a Hornets squad that will make their first postseason appearance in 10 years, Knueppel has made 257 3-pointers, shattering the NBA single-season rookie record and ranking No. 1 overall in the league.

Knueppel hasn’t only been the most impressive newcomer in the league, he may be having one of the greatest rookie seasons in NBA history.

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NBA Rookies Review: Who’s Outperforming Expectations the Most This Season Opta Analyst.

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