Over the next week, the final six spots at the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be filled. See how the Opta supercomputer expects this week’s semi-finals to go…
In one sense, the end of World Cup qualification is so close we can almost touch it. Over the next week, the final six teams to compete in Canada, Mexico and the United States will be confirmed.
But for those involved, this could be one of the longest weeks of their lives. Unable to secure automatic qualification, they all now have a second chance – but for the majority, that will require winning two matches.
Sixteen teams enter the European play-offs; four will progress to the World Cup. And then there are the intercontinental play-offs, in which six teams will battle it out for two tickets to the finals.
Here, we give you the lowdown on who can still qualify for the 2026 World Cup and provide the Opta supercomputer projections for each of this week’s play-off semi-finals.
Yash Thakur / Data AnalystUEFA Play-Offs
Path A
The winner of Path A will progress to World Cup Group B, joining Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.
Semi-Final: Wales vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Wales may not be thrilled to find themselves in the same pathway as Italy, the highest-ranked side of all in the World Cup qualifying play-offs, but they at least know they’ll have home advantage in both of their matches if they see off Bosnia in Cardiff.
Craig Bellamy’s side have a particularly strong recent record at home, winning five of their last six competitive matches in their own stadium, while Bosnia have never progressed from a play-off campaign ahead of either the World Cup or Euros.
Wales are certainly favourites for this semi-final encounter, winning 60.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations inside 90 minutes – Bosnia did so in just 18.9%.
They may not be quite so fancied if they do ultimately end up hosting Italy in Cardiff, but they’ll certainly not be pushovers as they bid to qualify for back-to-back World Cups for the first time.
Semi-Final: Italy vs Northern Ireland
Italy couldn’t miss another World Cup, could they?
Absent at Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022, the Azzurri find themselves in a bind once again. Play-offs proved their undoing ahead of each of those tournaments, losing out to Sweden and North Macedonia, respectively.
The winners of just a single World Cup match since their 2006 success in Germany, Italy are facing the prospect of missing out on three successive editions of the tournament for the first time.
If they were to fall short in their semi-final in Bergamo on Thursday, Northern Ireland will surely fancy their chances of qualifying, as trips to Wales or Bosnia may not appear quite as daunting.
Could an all-British final in Cardiff be on the cards?
Well, while Wales are backed to see off Bosnia, Northern Ireland are – understandably – huge outsiders here. They beat Italy inside 90 minutes on Thursday in just 11.9% of the pre-match simulations; Gennaro Gattuso’s men did so in a massive 72.1%.
Path B
The winner of Path B will go into World Cup Group F with Tunisia, the Netherlands and Japan.
Semi-Final: Ukraine vs Sweden
It’s fair to say Ukraine don’t have a great track record when it comes to World Cup qualifying play-offs.
They have entered the play-off phase for five different World Cups (1998, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022) and been eliminated every single time.
And, as has been the case for over three years since Russia invaded, Ukraine can hardly count on home advantage. They may be considered the “home team” here and will be if they reach the Path B final, but the game(s) will be played in Valencia, Spain.
Nevertheless, the Opta supercomputer rates them as favourites for this semi-final, winning 56.5% of the sims, to Sweden’s 21%.
Sweden’s particularly low figure will be heavily influenced by their shocking form in their World Cup qualifying group. They finished bottom of their section after losing four of their six matches, and they didn’t win any.
Luckily for them, Sweden’s results in the 2024-25 Nations League earned them this play-off reprieve; but can Graham Potter’s men take full advantage?
Semi-Final: Poland vs Albania
Poland claimed 17 points in qualifying to finish second behind the Netherlands in Group G; only Italy won more points (18) than them without winning their section in European qualification.
Albania, on the other hand, took 14 points. Among the six runners-up in groups comprising five teams, their total was the smallest – but they still pipped bitter rivals Serbia to second place.
The odds are against Albania. If they win in Warsaw, they’ll still have another trip ahead of them in the Path B final. A first World Cup qualification ever might be just two matches away, but it still feels like Albania have so much to do.
This is even more the overriding sense because the Opta supercomputer heavily backs Poland, who won 56.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations inside 90 minutes on Thursday, compared to Albania’s 20.9%.
Path C
The winner of Path C will go into World Cup Group D with Australia, United States and Paraguay.
Semi-Final: Slovakia vs Kosovo
World Cup qualification would be significant for either of these two. Slovakia have only appeared in one as an independent nation, while Kosovo are yet to make their debut.
Kosovo have progressively done better in qualifying campaigns, finishing sixth for 2018, fifth for 2022 and then second this time around, securing them a spot in these play-offs. And although they have to get a result in Bratislava, they know they’ll be at home in the play-off final if they get there.
Slovakia are – perhaps unsurprisingly given their home advantage – rated as favourites, winning inside 90 minutes in 53.8% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations. However, Kosovo’s 22.5% success rate makes them the second-likeliest away winners across the European semi-finals.
Semi-Final: Türkiye vs Romania
Türkiye finished their World Cup qualifying group with a commendable 2-2 draw away to Spain in Seville. However, having lost 6-0 to the same opposition at home earlier in the campaign, the damage to their automatic qualification hopes had already been done.
Neither Georgia nor Bulgaria (three points each) put up much resistance to the top two in Group E, meaning the matches between Türkiye and Spain were decisive in determining who’d go straight through to the finals.
When it comes to pure talent, Türkiye ought to stroll through these play-offs regardless of who they come up against in the final (if they beat Romania), though they haven’t always coped well with expectation.
Either way, quarter-finalists at Euro 2024, the Opta supercomputer considers them overwhelming favourites for this tie, winning 63.6% of the simulations in 90 minutes. Romania did so in just 17%.
Path D
The winner of Path D will go into World Cup Group A with Mexico, South Africa and South Korea.
Semi-Final: Czechia vs Republic of Ireland
Republic of Ireland face an uphill battle here, given Czechia are unbeaten in their last 17 home qualifying matches for major tournaments (World Cup/European Championship), winning 13 and drawing four since a 2-1 defeat to Germany in September 2017.
The Irish also have a pretty underwhelming record in World Cup play-offs. They’ve played them in qualification for the 1966, 1998, 2002, 2010 and 2018 editions, and only in 2002 did they progress to the tournament, though in 2010 they were only beaten after Thierry Henry used his hand just before assisting William Gallas’ decisive goal.
They do at least approach this game in some form, having won their last three matches, a run they’ve not bettered since June 2011.
Republic of Ireland are outsiders for this, but they are deemed the likeliest away winners on Thursday among the European play-off semi-finalists, winning inside 90 minutes in 24% of the 10,000 sims. Czechia are favourites, though (51.2%).
Semi-Final: Denmark vs North Macedonia
Of the teams having to contend with a World Cup qualifying play-off, only Italy (17) are higher than Denmark (19) in the Opta Power Rankings.
However, Denmark made a mess of their qualification group. A 2-2 draw at home to Belarus in their penultimate game meant their final match, away to Scotland, was essentially a straight shootout for a World Cup spot.
It was 2-2 at Hampden Park going into second-half stoppage time, and that would’ve sent Denmark to the World Cup. But a gorgeous Kieran Tierney effort sparked bedlam when putting Scotland 3-2 up, and then Kenny McLean lobbed Danish goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel from the halfway line to confirm a 4-2 win and a long-awaited return to the world stage for the Scots.
Denmark were left picking up the pieces and preparing for two more matches – assuming they do get past North Macedonia.
They are certainly well fancied to, winning 71.3% of the simulations to their opponents’ 12.3%, but a tough final awaits if they do progress.
Intercontinental Play-Offs
Pathway One
The winner of Pathway One will go into World Cup Group K with Portugal, Uzbekistan and Colombia.
Semi-Final: New Caledonia vs JamaicaFinal: DR Congo vs New Caledonia or Jamaica
Of all teams remaining in the World Cup qualification play-offs, New Caledonia are the lowest ranked at 133.
The idea of them reaching the World Cup before its expansion would have been fanciful in the extreme, but Oceania received a direct qualification spot for the first time for the 2026 tournament. With that predictably taken up by New Zealand, New Caledonia – beaten 3-0 by the All Whites in the OFC final – now get a second bite at the cherry.
Nevertheless, there is a sense of irony in that New Caledonia now find themselves in a qualification section where the potential opposition are tougher than what they’ve already faced.
Jamaica (83) may be lower than New Zealand (65) in the Opta Power Rankings, but DR Congo – who await in the final – are up at 47th and have already seen off Cameroon and Nigeria.
Jamaica are favourites for the semi-final, emerging victorious 52.5% of the time in the simulations, with New Caledonia at 24.3%.
But it’s worth bearing in mind that the intercontinental play-offs are all played on neutral ground in Mexico. Pathway One matches will take place at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara.
Pathway Two
The winner of Pathway Two will go into World Cup Group I with Norway, France and Senegal.
Semi-Final: Bolivia vs SurinameFinal: Iraq vs Bolivia or Suriname
Suriname are the second-lowest-ranked side still in the hunt for World Cup qualification, sitting just above New Caledonia in 132nd.
They are the significant outsiders in Pathway Two, with their semi-final opponents Bolivia up at 60th in the rankings, and finalists-in-waiting Iraq two spots higher in 58th.
Bolivia are, of course, renowned for being tough opposition when playing at home because most of their games are played at altitude in La Paz.
However, they don’t tend to travel particularly well. Since the start of qualifying for the 2014 World Cup, Bolivia have won just 10.9% of their points away from home, easily the smallest proportion of any CONMEBOL nation.
The fact they won’t have the advantage of altitude on Thursday could level the playing field somewhat for Suriname, or it might give Iraq the edge in the final.
They are still rated by the Opta supercomputer as comfortable favourites for a place in the final, beating Suriname in 65.9% of the simulations, but the projection model won’t be able to account for the importance of altitude.
Iraq’s preparations for the play-off final haven’t been ideal due to the turmoil in the Middle East, but they have been able to travel to Monterrey, Mexico.
They will be quietly confident they can overcome whoever they end up meeting next week, securing a first return to the World Cup since their debut in 1986, which was also held in Mexico.
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World Cup 2026 Play-Off Predictions: Who Can Still Qualify? Opta Analyst.
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