A Padres club already thin on rotation depth delivered some rough news for fans Monday, as manager Craig Stammen revealed that righty Joe Musgrove is expected to open the season on the injured list (video link via 97.3 The Fan). Musgrove hasn’t thrown in more than a week. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that he didn’t recover as well as hoped following an exhibition start against Great Britain’s World Baseball Classic club.
It’s an ominous update, though it’s worth noting that Stammen didn’t suggest there had been a setback of any note. Musgrove hasn’t pitched since the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery that cost him the entirety of the 2025 campaign.
“He’s most likely going to start on the IL this year,” Stammen said Monday morning. “We’re getting to the point where he’s taken enough time off that it’d be hard to ramp him up to get him to be a viable starter that could throw five innings, 90 pitches. … This was part of the plan. We knew he was going to have to take some time off. We knew we were going to have get him ready for the entire season and not just Opening Day.”
Getting a healthy Musgrove back in the fold will be key to the Padres’ chances at contending this season. San Diego’s rotation depth has thinned over the past year. Yu Darvish is injured and contemplating retirement. Dylan Cease became a free agent. Righties Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert were traded to the Royals last summer. Prospects Braden Nett and Henry Baez were sent to the Athletics as part of the Mason Miller trade.
A healthy Musgrove is arguably the Padres’ best pitcher. From 2021-24, the now-33-year-old righty gave his hometown club 559 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, fanning a sharp 25.5% of opponents against a terrific 6.1% walk rate. Musgrove doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting a bit north of 93 mph with his heater, but he has good command and induces both chases off the plate and swinging strikes at league-average or slightly better rates.
It’s always been fair to wonder how many innings the Padres can reasonably expect from Musgrove after a layoff of nearly 18 months. The uncertainty surrounding his workload is one of many pressing questions about San Diego’s starting staff.
The Padres now enter the year with Michael King (also coming off an injury-truncated season) and Nick Pivetta locked into spots. Randy Vásquez and free-agent pickup Germán Márquez are both likely to be in the starting five as well, though Márquez has been shelled this spring coming off his own worrying return from UCL surgery in Colorado. In 6 2/3 innings, he’s allowed nine runs on 10 hits and four walks. Vásquez posted a solid 3.84 ERA in 133 2/3 innings last season but did so with the third-worst strikeout rate (13.7%) of any pitcher in MLB (min. 100 innings pitched). Metrics like SIERA (5.43) and xFIP (5.51) both pegged him bottom-two in that same subset.
Options to fill out the rotation behind King, Pivetta, Vásquez and Márquez are fairly suspect. Left-hander JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t seemed to have the confidence of the organization since coming over alongside Miller in that aforementioned trade. The Friars gave him only five starts last year despite the fact that he’d been a staple in the Athletics’ rotation. He spent the rest of his time with the organization in Triple-A last summer, and Sears has had very rough spring (8.44 ERA in 10 2/3 innings). Righty Matt Waldron is also on the 40-man roster but is behind in camp and could start on the IL himself. San Diego also signed Griffin Canning in free agency, but he’s a lock to open on the IL as he finishes rehabbing last year’s ruptured Achilles tendon.
In all likelihood, the Padres will need to break camp with at least one non-roster invitee in the rotation (barring further additions). Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are the most prominent names to have signed minor league deals this offseason. None of the three have pitched well this spring. Buehler is the only one who’s allowed fewer runs than innings pitched (four runs on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts in 6 2/3 frames).
Given the lackluster options and the nature of their early schedule, the Padres may not even fill Musgrove’s rotation spot at all. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres could open the season with a four-man rotation. Acee calls King, Pivetta and Vásquez locks, adding that Buehler has “likely” earned a spot, while Márquez’s spring struggles have at least created some doubt about his ability to handle the job.
San Diego has a pair of off-days within the first eight days of the season. That’ll allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation twice in their first ten games. The Padres’ bullpen is among the deepest and most talented in the sport, too, so even when they finally do need a fifth starter, they could opt for a bullpen game while awaiting Musgrove to get into game shape. Someone like Márquez or Sears could open a bullpen game and perhaps navigate the opposing lineup once before turning over to the bullpen.
There’s no obvious answer in sight at the moment, which will make the final week-plus of camp worth watching with a careful eye. Each of Márquez, Sears, Buehler and Gonzales should have another appearance or two to try to stake a claim to the job, and ever-active president of baseball ops A.J. Preller could always try to creatively bring in another arm. One of the remaining free agents (e.g. Lucas Giolito, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin) probably wouldn’t have time to ramp up for the season, but there will be plenty of names hitting waivers or being granted their release from minor league deals over the final few days of camp.
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