Shafaq News- Washington
The administration of US PresidentDonald Trump is betting on internal unrest —particularly among Iranian Kurdishgroups— as part of a broader strategy to pressure the Iranian government amidthe escalating military confrontation with Tehran and its allied factions,former US diplomat William Lawrence told Shafaq News on Sunday.
Lawrence, director of regionalstudies at the National Council on US-Arab Relations and a professor at theAmerican University in Washington, said the conflict that erupted on February28 between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other is part of along-running confrontation unlikely to end soon.
Drawing on more than 15 years ofdiplomatic service in seven Middle Eastern countries, Lawrence described thecurrent war as an extension of decades of tension between Iran and itsadversaries rather than a short-lived crisis.
He also ruled out the possibilitythat the confrontation could evolve into a Vietnam-style war, noting thatVietnam involved a large-scale ground invasion, while there are no indicationsthat the United States plans to invade Iran with ground troops. Instead, in hisview, the conflict more closely resembles scenarios seen in Venezuela, Libya,or Afghanistan before direct intervention, where air power is used to shapedevelopments on the ground without deploying large US ground forces.
Read more: Between war and neutrality: Kurdistan navigates US-Iran confrontation
Kurdish Uprising
According to Lawrence, Trump seeksto pressure Iran’s political system and views unrest in Iran’s Kurdish regionsas a potentially positive development. Localized uprisings in IranianKurdistan, he explained, could serve as the starting point for broader internalinstability across the country.
He compared this approach to earlierconflicts where local forces advanced with external backing. The modelresembles the 2001 Afghanistan campaign, when Kabul fell through the advance of“local militias” supported by US special forces and American air power.
Reports indicating Kurdish forceshave moved deeper into Iranian territory would likely suggest that those groupsreceived firm assurances of aerial support from US and Israeli aircraft.
Even so, he expressed doubt thatsuch a strategy could lead to the collapse of the Iranian government. Iran’smilitary establishment and affiliated forces number roughly one millionpersonnel, making widespread defections unlikely. He also pointed to historicalexperience suggesting that many Iranians reject leaders perceived as chosen orsupported by foreign powers, recalling lessons associated with the events of1953.
Inside the United States
Trump, Lawrence said, remains deeplyconcerned about the upcoming midterm elections. He pointed to divisions withinthe American right as well as growing opposition among left-leaning voters andindependents to attacks on Iran and what they view as unconditional support forIsrael.
He explained that the administrationis seeking a swift outcome that could be presented domestically as a victorybefore the elections. Losing control of both the House of Representatives andthe Senate would significantly weaken Trump politically, potentially reopeningthe door to renewed impeachment efforts.
In Lawrence’s assessment, theadministration’s handling of the crisis appears closely tied to electoralconsiderations, with the possibility that Washington may ultimately seeksymbolic concessions from Iran similar to those he believes were achieved incases such as Denmark’s position on Greenland or recent dealings withVenezuela.
Twenty-one Countries Involved
The professor also revealed that theconflict has expanded beyond the immediate parties involved, saying that 21countries are currently participating militarily in various forms. Among thoserecently joining operations are Azerbaijan, Greece, France, and theNetherlands, while Egypt remains the only major Middle Eastern country that hasnot entered the conflict directly so far.
Russia and China, he added, aresupporting Tehran through weapons supplies, intelligence sharing, and dronetechnology, though there are currently no indications that Moscow or Beijingintend to enter the fighting directly with their own forces.
The war, he concluded, is unlikelyto produce a decisive military victory for either side. Instead, it will likelyend only after the parties reach a stage of exhaustion, eventually forcingnegotiations toward a ceasefire or a fragile settlement. For Iran, the survivalof the regime itself would amount to victory, while for Washington, successwould mean forcing a change in the regime’s behavior.
For Shafaq News, Mostafa Hashem,Washington, DC.
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