The final game of Round 4 sees England visit Rome under plenty of pressure to find both a result and a performance. They’ve never lost to Italy in the Men’s Six Nations, the only fixture where one side has a 100% win rate, but will that change this weekend?
There is no doubt that Italy are now consistently a competitive threat to all the other teams in the Men’s Six Nations, making it inevitable that England’s perfect record (winning 26/26) against them in the Championship will come to an end, potentially sooner rather than later.
The last meeting between these two sides in Rome saw England squeeze past the Azzurri by just three points (24-27), the closest ever result in this fixture. With England in an unexpected lull in confidence and form, could Gonzalo Quesada’s side capitalise and break the hoodoo.
Steve Borthwick has never lost three in a row in the Six Nations as head coach of England, but that is on the cards this weekend if his side get overturned. Their away form is definitely a concern having lost four of their last five away from Twickenham in the Championship.
Where the Game Will Be Won
“You don’t become a bad team/player overnight.”
Teams lose matches, in fact statistically 50% of teams in each match lose (pretend you’re American and draws don’t happen for this one). England had enjoyed a 12-match winning streak before being undone in Murrayfield and subsequently outperformed by Ireland.
Individual errors and drops in energy levels and intensity happen, as Geoffrey Chaucer said: “All good things come to an end.”
The foundation of England’s strength is still there. They have the quickest attacking ruck speed (3.3s) of any side in the 2026 Six Nations and are the only side with 90%+ success rates at both the lineout (94%) and scrum (100%). The panic button shouldn’t be pressed just yet.
As we highlighted in our Round 3 review, England missed the big moments against Ireland. The visitors were clinical, achieving a 78% red zone conversion rate, meanwhile England managed just a 25% rate, for the second game in a row. Only Italy (twice) have recorded lower rates in matches at this Championship.
Italy’s points-per-22 entry rate of just 1.15 is not good, they are only side to average fewer than two points per entry. When they met England last year in the Six Nations they didn’t have any problems reaching the red zone, in fact they made 12 forays into the 22, twice as many as they managed against any other side. That counts for nothing though unless the scoreboard gets nudged along.
Both sides have plenty of attacking threat and both know how to find the way into striking range. The difference in this match will likely come down to which side can both take their own chances and rebuff the opposition when they threaten.
Italy vs England Fantasy Picks
Lorenzo Cannone has been a real nuisance at the 2026 Six Nations so far, statistically speaking.
He has done enough to disrupt five opposition rucks so far, more than any other player. The back-rower is also one of just two players to tally 50+ tackles in the tournament, whilst he’s also made a team high 26 carries, beaten four defenders, made two offloads and won four turnovers.
Almost all of those figures mean strong fantasy points. There are plenty of options in the back-row filter, not least from the likes of Ben Earl, but Cannone is right up there and shouldn’t be ignored.
For England there haven’t been many big scorers so far, not since they thrashed Wales at least. With Borthwick’s changes maybe a super-sub wearing white could be a good bet or take a punt on one of the many new call-ups.
Last year against Italy, all of England’s back-row crossed for a try, with two of that trio selected for this match, Earl and Tom Curry, Earl also making 114 metres from 17 carries in the match.
Our outside pick is Cadan Murley. In his one previous Six Nations appearance he scored a try and assisted another (vs Ireland), also gaining 57 metres, making nine tackles and beating three defenders.
The Harlequins flyer also followed that with a couple of tries on England’s summer tour to Argentina/USA, notching up plenty of metres and carries in the process. He’s probably unlikely to be picked by many, so if he has a stormer it could help you do some catching up in your league.
Italy vs England Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing England to stop the rot and maintain their 100% record against Italy. It has them comfortable favourites for this one, giving them a 71.1% likelihood of coming out on top on Saturday afternoon.
Scoreline-wise, England are projected to run out 31-18 victors, potentially giving them some confidence to challenge Grand Slam favourites France on Super Saturday.
Italy vs England Lineups
Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12, Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Garbasi; 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 3 Simone Ferrari, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 6 Michele Lamaro (c), 7 Manuel Zuliani, 8 Lorenzo Cannone.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Riccardo Favretto, 21 Alessandro Fusco, 22 Leonardo Marin, 23 Tommaso Allan.
England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman,12 Seb Atkinson, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Ben Spencer; 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Jamie George, 3 Joe Heyes, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 5 Alex Coles, 6 Guy Pepper, 7 Tom Curry, 8 Ben Earl.
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Marcus Smith.
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Italy vs England Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview Opta Analyst.
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