Both teams will want a response at Villa Park. We look ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League clash with our Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
Aston Villa claimed all three points in 44.4% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Villa are looking to complete a league double over Chelsea for the first time since the 1989-90 campaign. Chelsea have lost eight of their last 10 midweek away games in the Premier League.Aston Villa and Chelsea will both hope to bounce back from disappointing results when the two Champions League hopefuls meet on Wednesday at Villa Park.
Liam Rosenior suffered his first Premier League defeat on Sunday as Jurriën Timber’s second-half header powered Arsenal to a 2-1 win. Pedro Neto was also sent off for two yellow cards in quick succession after Timber’s goal from another set-piece.
Rosenior acknowledged in his post-match debrief that Chelsea have a “deep-lying” disciplinary issue to correct. They have received seven red cards in the Premier League this season, with only six sides receiving more in a single campaign in the competition’s history.
That defeat at the Emirates Stadium left sixth-placed Chelsea six points adrift of the top four. Villa sit fourth and behind a resurgent Manchester United on goal difference, though Manchester City and Arsenal have sailed out of their reach in the title race.
But Unai Emery will be wanting a response from his side as well. Villa offered little in a 2-0 defeat to Wolves at Molineux on Friday, extending what has been a fairly concerning run for them.
Villa have won just two of their last eight Premier League games (D3 L3), finding the net only five times in this run (0.6 per game). Emery’s side had won 13 of their previous 15 before this (L2), averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Their record at Villa Park has been just as underwhelming, winning only one of their past four Premier League home games (D1 L2), after managing eight straight wins beforehand.
Villa have scored just two goals from 76 shots (2.6% conversion rate) and 6.0 expected goals in their last four at Villa Park, leaving Emery to consider his attacking options as both Ollie Watkins and Tammy Abraham battle to lead the line.
Watkins has been the usual first-choice option and has scored four goals in his last six league meetings with Chelsea, though all of those have come at Stamford Bridge. He has also failed to score in his last four Premier League outings overall.
However, Watkins scored twice in the reverse fixture this season, and could become the first Villa player since Anwar El-Ghazi in 2020-21 to score home and away against the Blues in a league season.
But Abraham also opened his Premier League account for Villa last time out at Villa Park to salvage a 1-1 draw with Leeds United, and could score in back-to-back Premier League home games for the first time since December 2019.
Coincidentally, the last time he managed this was playing for Chelsea – whom he scored 21 times for in the competition – and he found the net against Villa in the second game of that run.
There may also be a tactical change to consider for Emery. Villa average 16.5 shots per 90 minutes when losing in the Premier League this season, almost double the amount they average in a winning game state this term (8.8).
At the other end, Villa must be wary of João Pedro, who has been directly involved in five goals in five Premier League appearances against them (2 goals, 3 assists). That’s the Brazilian’s most goal involvements against one side in the competition.
João Pedro failed to score at Arsenal but did find the net in his two previous league appearances, against Burnley and Leeds. Chelsea did not win either of those games, leaving Rosenior without a win in three matches and desperate for a result here.
As for Chelsea’s team news, Rosenior will welcome back Wesley Fofana from his one-match suspension. Wednesday will likely come too soon for Marc Cucurella, Estêvão and Jamie Gittens, while Levi Colwill is out for the longer term. Rosenior stated on Monday that Cole Palmer will be fit despite appearing to suffer a knock against Arsenal.
John McGinn could return for Villa after his knee issue, though Harvey Elliott, Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara will all remain unavailable for Emery’s selection.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
After Watkins’ brace secured a 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge in December, Villa are looking to complete a league double over Chelsea for the first time since the 1989-90 campaign.
Adding in a 2-1 victory over Chelsea last season at Villa Park, Villa will also be aiming for three league wins in a row against the Blues for the first time since a run of four between 1978 and 1984.
Chelsea are winless in their last two league visits to Villa (D1 L1), having won five of their previous six games there.
But Rosenior may be optimistic as Chelsea have not lost consecutive away league games at Villa since losing in 2002-03 and 2003-04 under Claudio Ranieri.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer swayed towards a home win as Aston Villa triumphed in 44.4% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Chelsea claimed all three points in 28.7% of data-led scenarios, while the draw accounted for the remainder in 26.9%.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres, Lucas Digne, Douglas Luiz, Amadou Onana, Jadon Sancho, Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendía, Ollie Watkins.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Reece James, Josh Acheampong, Trevoh Chalobah, Malo Gusto, Moisés Caicedo, Andrey Santos, Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernández, Alejandro Garnacho, João Pedro.
Head coach: Liam Rosenior
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction: Emery and Rosenior Seek Much-Needed Boost in Battle for Champions League Qualification Opta Analyst.
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