After three second-place finishes, 2025-26 seemed set to be the season Mikel Arteta would finally bring home the Premier League title for Arsenal. After just two wins in their last seven games, and accusations of “bottling” it, can the Gunners hold their nerve?
Is this déjà vu?
After a significant summer spend and the assembly of what many regard as the best squad in the Premier League, not to mention Liverpool and Manchester City being in transition, Arsenal have looked the pick of the bunch for most of this season’s Premier League.
A mixture of effectiveness from set-pieces in attack and a miserly defence that rarely looked like allowing a shot on target, let alone conceding a goal, means that the Gunners have sat top of the Premier League since the start of October.
They won all eight of their Champions League matches to top the league phase table, have progressed to the Carabao Cup final and are also in the fifth round of the FA Cup. They are, despite stumbling to a 2-2 draw against bottom-placed Wolves on Wednesday, still top of the Premier League table, too. So why are media and fans questioning Arsenal’s title credentials?
Well, since the turn of the year, despite winning every single cup game, Arsenal’s form in the league has stuttered. They have won just two of their last seven league games, and those victories both came against promoted teams.
However, if you look at the form of all teams over their last eight matches, Arsenal have earned the same number of points as Manchester City and two more than third-placed Aston Villa. While Arsenal will be bitterly disappointed with their return over that period, neither of their challengers has significantly closed the gap.
Of course, Arsenal will be disappointed with the results, but they have been a little unfortunate. Wolves had two shots on target and only two shots in the final 45 minutes of Wednesday’s draw at Molineux, and scored with both attempts.
Man Utd scored with all three shots on target in the 3-2 win at the Emirates. Both opponents posted a combined expected goals tally of about one goal and yet scored five goals between them. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool failed to manage any shots on target at all in 0-0 draws.
Why Has the Slump in Form Happened?
A quick look at the data shows that Arsenal have underperformed in attack and probably been unlucky in defence. That combination has proved costly.
In their last seven games, Arsenal have recorded around 20% fewer shots and seen a similar reduction in their xG. It’s not a surprise to see they’ve averaged fewer goals as a result.
Lineup changes and injuries to their forward line in the last few months have certainly not helped, but Arsenal fans have particularly lamented what they perceive to be a lack of ambition in attack, especially after taking the lead. Instead of going on to make their dominance count, Arsenal have let opponents settle and come back.
In recent weeks, Man Utd, Brentford and Wolves all scored within a few minutes of Arsenal finding the net, as the Gunners took their foot off the accelerator. It also happened in cup games against Chelsea, Kairat and Inter in January.
Fatigue from trying to compete in multiple competitions, tied with injuries across their forward line and players returning to fitness and lacking sharpness are probably hampering the team physically and mentally.
That said, Arsenal’s defensive record across this period has improved in terms of their underlying numbers. Both their expected goals against and shots on target faced are lower than in the first 20 matches. The fact they’ve conceded more goals on average emphasises that there has been a little misfortune; for example, three of the six goals they’ve conceded have come from outside the box with excellent finishes.
Can Arsenal Exorcise the Demons?
Arsenal have a five-point lead, but Man City have a game in hand, meaning the gap could become just two points. But that is the exact same situation as it was on New Year’s Day. As the games have ticked down and both sides have dropped points, Arsenal’s odds of becoming champions has increased.
However, the thing every Arsenal fan is worried about is Pep Guardiola’s ability to find a peerless run of form in the final sprint. Over the last four seasons, City have averaged 30 points from their last 12 games of the season, while the Gunners have averaged around 23 points.
The title is now in each club’s own hands. If City win all their games they will be champions. Arsenal are in the same situation, but could even afford a draw at the Etihad in April if they win their other matches. But it’s more likely that there will be more points dropped and plenty more twists and turns.
If there is anxiety in north London, it is because supporters have seen this script before. Arsenal are no strangers to title collapses…
Title races can take many forms; the runaway champions; a two-horse race; a surprise package. But it isn’t always the winners who make the main headlines, sometimes it’s the team that blew their chance that lives in the memory.
Newcastle United’s infamous collapse in 1995-96 is probably the most memorable after they threw away a 12-point lead that they held in January after 23 matches. Man Utd blew a 13-point lead over Arsenal in 1997-98 and an eight-point lead with just six games remaining in 2011-12 to give Manchester City their first Premier League crown (albeit City’s final-day comeback against QPR and Sergio Aguero’s last-gasp goal grabbed the headlines).
But when it comes to title challenges falling apart, no team seems to have blown up more often than Arsenal in the Premier League era, who have seemingly had more blips than a submarine radar.
The Gunners made sustained title challenges in 2022-23 and 2023-24, but missed out on winning the trophy on both occasions. A significant part of falling short was their propensity for stumbling at some point during the season, experiencing a blip that became a malaise, and even a trough that ultimately proved costly.
A warning sign of this was evident in Mikel Arteta’s tenure at the tail-end of the 2021-22 season when Arsenal fell short of Champions League qualification after being in the box seat for so long, and it has sunk their last two title challenges.
This isn’t the first time that Arsenal look to have been well set to make a title challenge, but eventually failed to go on to win the Premier League title. In several cases it has seen disastrous runs of form or moments of self-destruction that have derailed their aspirations.
Here are the previous times Arsenal have come so close, yet so far. Gunners’ fans with a nervous disposition may want to look away now…
2002-03
Arsenal were double winners in 2001-02 and won the league unbeaten in 2003-04, but 2002-03 probably should have seen Arsène Wenger’s side also take the big trophy home.
This was the famous season where Wenger inferred that his team could go through a whole campaign without losing, which was proven premature after Wayne Rooney scored a winning goal for Everton against the Gunners in mid-October. Despite that, Arsenal made it to early March eight points clear of Man Utd.
However, trying to juggle FA Cup, Champions League and Premier League commitments took its toll. Arsenal went on a run of seven league games with just two wins, three draws and two defeats.
They saw Sol Campbell sent off against rivals Man Utd and miss the rest of the season, while Patrick Vieira also got injured in that game. It all culminated in a self-destructive draw after being 2-0 up at Bolton, who would finish 17th, and then a 3-2 home defeat by Leeds who finished 15th. United ended up winning the title by five points.
2007-08
After Thierry Henry had departed for Barcelona in the summer of 2007, Wenger’s youthful team was now built around the talented Cesc Fabregas, and blitzed through the first half the season in impressive style.
After 26 games, they were five points clear of Man Utd and eight ahead of Chelsea. Trying to compete on all fronts seemed once again to be an issue, so Wenger rested his team for an FA Cup match at Old Trafford and they were routed 4-0. They then went to Birmingham City and Eduardo da Silva suffered an infamous leg injury. A late penalty equaliser took the wind completely out of the Gunners’ sails.
They won just two out of 13 games in that run, just one victory in eight in the league.
Injuries to Tomas Rosicky, Kolo Toure, Bacary Sagna and the trauma of the Eduardo injury severely impacted the team who finished third with 83 points, just four behind Man Utd and two off Chelsea, who would also contend the Champions League final as the two strongest teams in Europe that season.
2009-10
Arsenal were once again challenging in 2009-10. With just seven games left in late March and just two points behind Man Utd, the Gunners looked well placed to challenge. However, another traumatic injury, this time Aaron Ramsey’s broken leg against Stoke, impacted the team in the lead up. Injuries to William Gallas, Fabregas and Thomas Vermaelen at the business end of the season saw Wenger’s side run out of steam.
St Andrews and Birmingham once again was the start of a bad run that saw another title tilt peter out with four defeats and just one win in six league matches. They ultimately finished 11 points behind champions Chelsea.
2010-11
The following campaign also saw Arsenal in touch with the leaders in spring. On 5 March, they were four points behind Man Utd with a game in hand.
However, they won just two of their last 11 Premier League games, taking just 12 points out of a possible 33, though one of those two wins came against eventual champions Man Utd in between the two legs of the Red Devils’ Champions League semi-final.
Again, injury to talisman Fabregas and inconsistency of selection and loss of form at the wrong time saw the Gunners’ challenge falter. They eventually finished fourth, 12 points off the top.
2013-14
It took Arsenal some time to regroup after the departures of key players like Fabregas and Robin van Persie, but in 2013-14 they looked back to being a contender. In early February, Arsenal were two points clear at the top of the table.
Once again, they were still in the FA Cup and Champions League and struggled to juggle the demands of all three competitions. The big shock to the system was a 5-1 hammering by Liverpool at Anfield, a game in which they were 4-0 down after just 20 minutes. This led to a run of just two wins in nine Premier League matches, taking nine points from just 27 available.
One of the two victories in that run was at White Hart Lane of all places, yet in the very next game they lost 6-0 at Stamford Bridge in Wenger’s 1,000th Arsenal match in charge. Injuries to midfield were again a key factor with Mesut Özil, Jack Wilshere, Ramsey and Mathieu Flamini all missing plenty of time.
The Gunners went on to win the FA Cup to provide some consolation, but finished just seven points off top in fourth with this poor run costing them the chance to make a better challenge.
2015-16
On 14 February 2016, Arsenal beat Leicester City 2-1 with a last-minute Danny Welbeck winner and momentum seemed to shift in the Gunners’ favour. They moved just two points behind the leaders, and everyone expected the Foxes’ title challenge to falter.
However, Claudio Ranieri’s team were out of both cups and were able to focus completely on the league, while once again Arsenal were distracted by FA Cup and Champions League commitments.
Another European exit to Barcelona came and went, but home defeat against Watford in the FA Cup was a significant blow on top of a run of league form that saw the Gunners take just 16 points from a possible 30 in 10 games, while Leicester took 27 from a possible 33 in the same period.
Injuries to Flamini and Per Mertesacker were a factor, but the most significant impact came from a drop in the creative form of Mesut Özil and the Gunners’ title ambitions faltered with him.
The German playmaker racked up 16 assists in his first 18 Premier League games of the campaign and seemed odds-on to smash Thierry Henry’s Premier League record of 20. But Özil set up just three more goals in his final 17 league games and fell one short of the Frenchman’s tally as the Foxes lifted the trophy.
2022-23
After spending 248 days at the top of the Premier League table, Arsenal ultimately fell away again, despite what had been another season of significant progress under Mikel Arteta.
Again, Arsenal led the league for much of the season, going into the mid-campaign break for the World Cup five points clear at the top.
Sporting CP ended their European hopes in a penalty shootout in March, but the second leg was perhaps most impactful due to the injury suffered by William Saliba, who would miss the rest of the season. That was pivotal in Arsenal’s title challenge, and cracks started to appear in their tilt.
Consecutive 2-2 draws with Liverpool and West Ham saw the Gunners inexplicably throw away 2-0 leads in back-to-back games. A mad 3-3 draw at home to Southampton was yet more dropped points, while City then beat them 4-1 at the Etihad to wrestle control and take the title out of Arsenal’s hands.
2023-24
Arsenal started the 2023-24 season well and were top of the table after a late goal secured a 4-3 away win over Luton in early December. Man City’s defeat the following evening to Aston Villa left them six points adrift of Arsenal in fourth place. But the Gunners were the next visitors to Villa Park, and they lost 1-0.
Arteta’s side managed to beat Brighton the following week, before drawing with Liverpool at Anfield just before Christmas. An extended blip didn’t seem likely as Arsenal took on West Ham at the Emirates, but despite having over 30 shots, they lost 2-0. They then followed that up a few days later with a lacklustre 2-1 defeat to Fulham.
A mid-winter break to Dubai energised Arteta’s men, who then won 16, drew one and lost just one of their next 18 Premier League matches – an incredible run of form for any team. But the damage had been done. A six-point lead over City had evaporated and they went into that run in fourth place.
As Villa were beating Arsenal in December, Man City started a 23-match unbeaten run with 19 wins and four draws that saw them take the title by two points.
The Race for the 2025-26 Premier League Title
As it stands, the Opta supercomputer predictions give Mikel Arteta’s side a 79.7% chance of winning the 2025-26 Premier League title, with City closing in (17.3%).
Only two weeks ago, the projections were falling in Arsenal’s favour at 93.6% as they opened up a nine point gap. A single result at this stage of the campaign can make or break a season – Arsenal will be hoping it falls in their favour.
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Second Again Ole Ole: Is History Repeating Itself for Arsenal? Opta Analyst.
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