Former Fox News host Steve Hilton and U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell are leading a crowded California gubernatorial field to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to a new poll from Emerson College.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters, which occurred on Feb. 13 and Feb. 14, marks the first independent poll since San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan entered the fray late last month. Mahan, a moderate Democrat who raked in more than $7 million in his first week — largely from tech titans and the ultra-rich — was at the back of the pack with 3.4% support.
Hilton, one of two Republicans in the race, saw his support increase by five points since Emerson College’s last poll in December. The United Kingdom-born businessman currently leads the field at 17.1%, followed by Swalwell at 14.1%, who saw a two-point bump since the last poll. The other Republican in the race, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, was third with 13.5%, followed by former Rep. Katie Porter at 9.8% and billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer with 8.8%. Porter’s support decreased by one point since December, while Steyer saw a five-point increase. 21% of voters are still undecided, according to the poll.
Hilton said in a news release that the poll “confirms what we’re seeing on the ground at our Town Halls up and down the state.”
“When people see the clear contrast between 16 years of Democrat one party rule that have given us the highest poverty, highest unemployment and highest cost of living in America — and Steve Hilton’s positive, practical ‘Califordable’ plan: $3.00 gas, cutting electric bills in half, your first $100 grand tax free, a home you can afford to buy, Steve’s message wins hands down,” Hilton said.
But the former Fox News host also warned that Bianco could “act as a spoiler” by splitting the Republican vote, leading to two Democrats into the November runoff. California operates under a “jungle primary” system where the top-two candidates, regardless of political party, advance to the general election.
At a debate earlier this month, Hilton criticized his GOP rival, calling him a “RINO,” which stands for “Republican In Name Only.” Bianco was not present at the debate due to a scheduling conflict.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release about the poll that the “Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton (38%) and Chad Bianco (37%), while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voter support at 22%. Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candi 23% of Democrats support Eric Swalwell, 14% support Porter, 12% Steyer and 22% are undecided.”
Other Democratic candidates that fell toward the bottom of the poll include former health secretary and Attorney General Xavier Becerra at 3.5%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 2.8%, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond at 2.1% and former state Controller Betty Yee at 1.8%.
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