Arsenal’s defence is rightly lauded as the bedrock of their title charge, but might it be their attack that wins them the title?
Arsenal are six points clear at the top of the Premier League table. But ask any of their supporters and they’ll tell you that margin feels wafer-thin. Particularly with a familiar and relentless foe in pursuit, who showed against Liverpool that they are not going to give up on the title without an almighty battle.
That’s why it’s so important, then, that not only have Arsenal won their last two games, but they have done so handsomely. In back-to-back wins over Leeds United (4-0) and Sunderland (3-0), Arsenal have scored seven goals and conceded none, lifting their goal difference to +32, five better than Manchester City’s +27 in second place.
Goal difference is often treated as a bit of an afterthought in long league campaigns, only really discussed as seasons come to an end. But in a title race that could go down to the wire, perhaps we should be discussing it now.
If the two sides finish level on points, it will be goal difference, of course, that separates them. With City threatening to do their usual impression of a video game boss that just won’t die, and a meeting between the two clubs at the Etihad Stadium in April, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which the two clubs might be tied on points. If that does become the case, then whoever has the superior goal difference will take the title.
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1 day ago Ali TweedaleOnly two matchdays ago, it was City (+26) who held the edge over Arsenal (+25) in the goal difference column, despite being four points behind. The swing since then shows just how quickly the picture can change, and how important Arsenal’s two big wins might end up being come May.
Much of the discussion around Arsenal’s position at the top of the table has focused, quite rightly, on their defensive strength. They have built their lead on remarkable robustness at the back, conceding just 16.6 expected goals (xG) thus far – over 10 xG less than the next best team in Man City (28.2 xGA). That’s often meant they’ve needed just a single goal to secure victory and they’ve frequently leant on set-pieces to make the difference.
Before facing Leeds, eight of Arsenal’s 15 wins (53.3%) had come by a one-goal margin. Three more (20%) were by two goals, and only four (26.6%) had come by margins of three or more. They were efficient but did not often blow teams away.
By comparison, City have been able to cut loose. Prior to the win against Liverpool, half of their victories (7/14) had come by three goals or more, and only four of them (28.5%) were by a one-goal margin.
The contrast between the teams supported the idea that City were this unstable but potentially devastating attacking force, while Arsenal were more measured and controlled, but unable to play without the handbrake on.
However, the last two matches have highlighted a different side to Arsenal. Their attack, rather than the defence, has taken the limelight. Sure, victories over Leeds and Sunderland would have been expected, but to do so by an aggregate score of 7-0, coupled with City dropping points against Tottenham, could be crucial.
The profile of how each side have picked up their wins still supports the theory that Arsenal lack the attacking firepower of City, but their two most recent wins have gone some way to balancing the numbers:
For all the discussion around their supposed lack of attacking thrust, Arsenal are the second-highest scorers in the league with 49 goals, just two behind City’s league-leading 51. Things are starting to click.
Viktor Gyökeres, after a difficult first half to his debut season in England, is beginning to find his rhythm. Since the turn of the year, the Swede has scored six goals in all competitions, more than any other Premier League player in that period. Over the same timeframe, only Manchester United (11) have scored more open-play goals than Arsenal’s eight, underlining a growing sharpness in forward areas.
It may feel premature to focus on goal difference with 13 matches still to play, but historically it’s actually a fairly reliable indicator of who might become champions. In 33 completed Premier League seasons, the team with the best goal difference after 25 matches has gone on to win the title 25 times (75.7%). It’s hardly ground-breaking to reveal that the most dominant teams tend to convert that advantage into silverware, but the consistency of how often they do is striking.
Just six sides with the best goal difference in the league after 25 matches have failed to win the trophy. Arsenal’s failed title charge in 2023-24 serves as a cautionary tale.
Goal difference is, obviously, calculated as the result of what happens at both ends of the pitch. Arsenal’s defensive strength remains the biggest reason for their six-point lead and why they’ve been able to build up a +32 goal difference. We’re not for a second suggesting anything otherwise. But there are recent signs that the balance of their play is beginning to tilt towards a side that can extend leads as well as protecting them.
Arsenal travel to Brentford and Wolves in the Premier League over the next 10 days, with a home game against Wigan in the FA Cup in between. Winning will first and foremost be the priority, especially against a Brentford side that continue to punch well above their weight. But if the opportunities do arise, particularly against bottom-of-the-table Wolves, there could be a lot of value in trying to win well.
It’s hard to say how decisive goal difference could be at the end of the season – it has only once before decided the title race (in 2011-12). But what is clear right now is that while Arsenal’s defence has put them in position, their attack may yet be what carries them across the line.
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