England and Wales lock horns once more when they face each other in their opening Six Nations fixtures at the Allianz Stadium in Twickenham on Saturday. Find out where the game will be one and lost with our England vs Wales prediction.
England and Wales could scarcely be approaching this year’s Six Nations in more different circumstances.
England have their eyes firmly set on a first Six Nations crown under Steve Borthwick, while for Wales, simply avoiding a third consecutive Wooden Spoon would signify a successful campaign.
Since losing their Championship opener in Dublin last year, England have strung together 11 straight Test wins, a run that includes a record Six Nations win against Wales and impressive victories over the likes of New Zealand and Australia.
Wales, on the other hand, have won just two Tests since the 2023 Rugby World Cup (L20), both against Eddie Jones’ Japan, and it will be a huge task for them to travel to Twickenham and get the better of England under Jones’ successor, Borthwick.
The outcome here may seem inevitable, but the Six Nations has a way of providing upsets, particularly in opening round fixtures. Just ask England themselves, who fell to three straight Round 1 defeats against Scotland between 2021 and 2023, or Wales, whose 2019 Grand Slam was kick-started by a famous win in France.
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Where the Game Will Be Won
England’s game has continued to evolve under Borthwick, with their per-game numbers in 2025 representing the most impressive output of his tenure to date. The question now is whether England have already reached their ceiling, or if there is another gear they’re yet to reach.
A huge element of their playing style since Borthwick’s arrival has been their willingness to put boot to ball. Last year, they averaged the most kicks in play (35.7) and the most kicking metres (959) per game of any Tier 1 nation.
That strategy didn’t always secure possession, with their kick retention rate standing at a mediocre 14%, but it consistently generated territorial gains. England ranked first among Tier 1 nations for attacking 22 entries per game last year (11.5).
Where there is room for improvement, though, is in what they did when reaching the 22. Only Argentina (2.68) scored fewer points per entry than England (2.72), a disparity that hints at untapped potential. Should England raise their redzone conversion rate and keep it tight at the other end – they were the only side to fewer less than two points per defensive entry last year (1.94) – then the sky really is the limit for this current crop.
For Wales, the picture is rather different. After years of torment, Steve Tandy will be hoping his side can show some form of improvement here.
The stats for Wales in 2025 weren’t pretty. Among Tier 1 sides they ranked last for tries scored (2.6), line breaks (4.6), attacking 22 entries (5.9) and turnovers won (4.1) per game. The only real areas in which they topped the rankings were the categories you don’t want to feature in, such as tries (5.3) conceded and penalties (11.2) conceded per outing.
While a dramatic turnaround is unlikely to happen overnight, Tandy’s track record offers cause for optimism. Until taking the Wales gig last year, he had previously been Scotland’s defensive coach since the beginning of 2020. Under his guidance, the Scots recorded the highest tackle success rate in five of the six Championships Tandy was involved in. With that in mind, we tipped Wales to record the best tackle success rate in this year’s Championship.
England vs Wales Fantasy Picks
Despite the doom and gloom, there is still quality in Wales’ backline, particularly in the form of Louis Rees-Zammit. He is set to make his return to the Six Nations after coming back to international rugby last November, scoring tries against Japan and New Zealand.
His last try in the Six Nations before his NFL sabbatical came against England in 2023, so it’s fitting that he makes his return against them, especially with this game coming the day before Super Bowl LX.
Wales are likely to be without the ball for large portions of this game, and while that may make uncomfortable viewing for those of a Cambrian persuasion, it does mean many of their forwards are likely to rack up colossal tackle counts.
Dafydd Jenkins was the second-most prolific tackler in last year’s Six Nations (78), only behind the injured Jac Morgan (88), while Harri Deaves is among the top tacklers in European domestic rugby this season.
For England, Tommy Freeman scored in each round of the 2025 Six Nations, one of just three players to achieve that feat since Italy joined the Championship in 2000, alongside Louis Bielle-Biarrey (2025) and Philippe Bernat-Salles (2001). He’s been named at No. 13 for this game, the same shirt he wore (and scored in) against Wales during Round 5 last year.
England’s bench is full of appealing ‘super-sub’ options, with Henry Pollock perhaps the most tempting of the lot. The back-rower’s debut came off the bench against Wales in last year’s Six Nations, and it’s fair to say he made an instant impression. His brace of tries in that fixture made him England’s youngest ever scorer in the Championship (20 years and 60 days), and the only forward to score a double from the bench this decade.
England vs Wales Prediction
The Opta supercomputer predicts this game to be as about one-sided as you’re likely to see in a Six Nations fixture.
England are heavy favourites to kick their campaign off with a win at a 92.5% probability, with Wales having just a 6.9% shot of returning to Cardiff with a first Championship win in three years. There’s less than a 1% chance of a first draw between these sides since 1983.
The score predictor envisages England running out 38-16 winners, a scoreline some Welsh fans might take if offered right now.
England vs Wales Lineups
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Henry Arundell, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Jamie George (c), 3 Joe Heyes, 4 Alex Coles, 5 Ollie Chessum, 6 Guy Pepper, 7 Sam Underhill, 8 Ben Earl.
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Maro Itoje, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Ben Spencer, 23 Marcus Smith.
Wales: 15 Louis Rees-Zammit, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Eddie James, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams; 1 Nicky Smith, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 3 Archie Griffin, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 5 Adam Beard, 6 Alex Mann, 7 Josh Macleod, 8 Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements: 16 Liam Belcher, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Tomas Francis, 19 Ben Carter, 20 Taine Plumtree, 21 Harri Deaves, 22 Kieran Hardy, 23 Mason Grady.
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