Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, wants Republican state leaders to stay away from any regulations of prediction markets.
The New York Times reports that Trump told a gathering of GOP state attorneys general in New Orleans this spring that gambling businesses were attacking prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi to protect their own “monopolies.” Prediction markets already have oversight from the federal government, Trump said, according to four anonymous sources cited by the Times.
The message appeared clear: Back off the idea of regulating any prediction markets.
Trump was hired by Kalshi in January last year as an adviser and is on the board of Polymarket, which he has a stake in through his investment firm 1789 Capital.
Both Republican and Democratic state governments are pursuing legal action against prediction markets, with 20 states in litigation over whether prediction markets fall under sports gambling laws. In July, 44 states signed a letter calling prediction markets a “new form of casino” endangering young people. In March, Arizona became the first state to criminally charge Kalshi for allowing people to bet on elections and “operating an illegal gambling business.”
States are trying to recoup state tax revenue, estimated to be at least $2 billion a year according to the research group the Tax Foundation. The president, meanwhile, is encouraging prediction markets, touting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a small agency that oversees derivatives, as being enough to regulate them.
Since its founding in 1974, the CFTC had never sued a state government over regulations until this year, when it sued nine of them, all with Democratic governors. In two instances, the CFTC has told prediction markets to go around court orders by invoking emergency powers.
The issue of prediction markets will likely reach the Supreme Court, with the White House highly likely to back the businesses from facing any legal restrictions. The fact that they involve betting on political and international events has already proven to be a major problem, but that doesn’t seem to deter the Trump administration.
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