Probably most important to say up front that (1) we don’t know Justin Steele’s exact return timeline yet, (2) we will know a ton more by the end of Spring Training, and (3) even if he’s “ahead of schedule” in his rehab right now, that may not actually impact the volume of regular season innings he puts up. It would simply be good and happy news for today.
Steele and the Cubs are going to be VERY careful to ensure that his return from elbow surgery is optimally timed for his long-term health, and for his ability to contribute much more in the second half than the first half of the 2026 season.
All that said, it’s mid-January, and Justin Steele, just nine months removed from surgery, has already been up and throwing off the mound multiple times:
2nd time off the bump today! Felt crispy. Any guesses on the velo from this flick? ? pic.twitter.com/i2qBgK8jnZ
— Justin Steele (@J_Steele21) January 20, 2026That’s not quite the same as a full bullpen session, which is itself a far cry from pitching with high intensity in a game setting, but for mid-January? Throwing off the mound? That’s actually just kind of … normal for guys? Which is kinda delightfully nuts.
“There hasn’t really been any hiccups at all through this process,” Justin Steele told the Tribune. “It’s felt good the entire time. If anything, we’re ahead of schedule. Kind of been pushing the envelope the entire time, wanting to get off the mound, push the footage back as far as the throwing progression goes. But, yeah, it’s full steam ahead.”
You can’t assume there will be no hiccups from here, but, even if there aren’t, I have to believe the Cubs and Steele will slow play his ramp-up a little bit. For one thing, you want to make very, very sure that he’s good to go for the rest of the season once you take off the leash. For another thing, you want Steele – especially Steele! – to be at his best in September and October, if at all possible. For still another thing, it’s not like he’s going to throw 180 innings this year no matter what, so if you have to artificially cut off some innings, it’s easiest to do at the start of the season.
There’s also the potentially thorny matter of the Cubs having more starting pitchers available on Day One than normal starting spots, before considering Justin Steele. So even if Steele were magically ready for Opening Day, the Cubs would have even less of an incentive to force the issue.
Ideally, the way this plays out is that Steele slowly ramps up with the team through February and March, stays in Arizona for another month or so after that, and then the Cubs sketch out a rehab assignment that will serve as his Cactus League slate of stretching out to five+ innings. If all goes to plan, we could see Justin Steele back with the big league team in late-May or early-June, available to go 100-ish innings in the regular season, with another tip-top-shape 30 postseason innings available in the bag.
In any case, I’ll be fascinated to see how Steele’s Spring Training plays out. Great management opportunity for the Cubs if they play their cards right, as they could line things up to get the absolute most possible out of him this season, and set him up for the most success.
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