The new Champions League format has left all but six teams with something to play for heading into the final matchday. So, who is going to make the knockouts?
Any change, in more or less any walk of life, is met with at least some degree of apprehension.
It was no different when UEFA decided the Champions League group stage needed revamping, replacing the previous, well-known format of eight groups of four with one, massive, 36-team league.
The main aim of the new-look league phase was to guarantee more encounters between the best teams, which it has succeeded in doing. This season, we have already seen Arsenal play Bayern Munich; Manchester City and Liverpool play Real Madrid; Chelsea and PSG face Barcelona; and Inter face Atlético Madrid. And we’re only in mid-January.
The problem is that with every team playing eight matches, the importance of any individual match has dropped. Each game carries less weight as every team has seven more opportunities to recover any missed points. There is less jeopardy.
However, what the league phase has done is create a manic final matchday, where a tremendously clumped group of teams battle it out for the remaining spots in the top eight positions. Those who finish in the top eight go straight into the last 16 of the competition, while the 16 teams who finish between ninth and 24th go into a play-off round. It means there’s an awful lot to play for next week, when all 36 teams play simultaneously. The whole league phase has been building up to this climax.
Making sense of the league at this stage is quite a challenge. We’ll have a live, as-it-stands table on the Opta Analyst website next Wednesday night, but before we get to that, the Opta supercomputer can lend a helpful hand in trying to work out what’s going to happen.
The only certainties at this point are that Arsenal and Bayern will finish in the top eight, and the bottom four teams – Eintracht Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal and Kairat Almaty – will all be eliminated.
That leaves 30 of the 36 teams with their futures still to be determined. There’s plenty still on the line next week.
So, who is going to avoid the play-off round, and who will crash out? Let’s see what the Opta supercomputer predicts.
Champions League Matchday 8 Fixtures
Ajax vs Olympiakos Arsenal vs Kairat Almaty Athletic Club vs Sporting CP Atlético Madrid vs FK Bodø/Glimt Barcelona vs FC Copenhagen Bayer Leverkusen vs Villarreal Benfica vs Real Madrid Borussia Dortmund vs Inter Club Brugge vs Olympique Marseille Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Hotspur Liverpool vs FK Qarabag Manchester City vs Galatasaray Monaco vs Juventus Napoli vs Chelsea PSV Eindhoven vs Bayern Munich Pafos vs Slavia Prague Paris Saint-Germain vs Newcastle United Union Saint-Gilloise vs AtalantaWho Will Make the Top Eight?
As things stand, Real Madrid, Liverpool and Tottenham are the only teams who know a win will guarantee them a place in the last 16, because they are third, fourth and fifth, respectively, and are ahead of the chasing pack on points.
Incredibly, PSG, Newcastle, Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting CP, Man City, Atlético Madrid and Atalanta are all level on 13 points, one behind Spurs. For each of those teams, a win will give them a good chance of making the top eight, but goal difference could be the deciding factor between them. Any of those teams could drop down the rankings despite victory on MD8.
Further back, Inter, Juventus and Borussia Dortmund are all still in with a chance of making the top eight, while Galatasaray and Qarabag aren’t out of it mathematically, though their chances are so slim they round to 0.0%.
Liverpool host Qarabag and have the highest chance of going directly to the last 16 (94.5%) outside of the top two. Madrid, who travel to Benfica, aren’t too far behind (84.0%). Spurs face a trickier task in travelling to face Eintracht, and have just a 51.3% chance of finishing in the top eight.
Barcelona (79.8%) face Copenhagen, Man City (60.0%) play Galatasaray, and PSG (53.7%) host Newcastle, and are all deemed to have a better chance than Spurs despite currently trailing them in the table.
Reigning champions PSG have one of the most challenging assignments as Newcastle are a formidable outfit and are currently seventh in the table, so they have everything to play for, too. Eddie Howe’s side are given a 26.0% chance of overcoming PSG on their own turf or of other results going their way, and making the top eight.
Atlético (48.8%), Sporting (37.4%) and Chelsea (36.9%) all have more chance than Newcastle, while Atalanta (13.4%), Juve (6.8%), Inter (6.3%) and Dortmund (1.2%) are the outsiders with one game to play. As mentioned, Galatasaray and Qarabag can still make it, but the supercomputer gives them next to no chance.
Most of those teams will likely end up in the play-off round…
Who Will Go Into the Play-Off Round?
Quite remarkably, the 30 teams from Real Madrid in third to Ajax in 32nd all still have a chance of ending up in the play-off round. There are of course only 16 places up for grabs, though, so who’s most likely to finish between ninth and 24th and go into the two-legged play-off?
According to the Opta supercomputer, there are 16 teams with a chance of 50.9% or greater of heading into the play-off round. Those range from the near-certainties of Galatasaray (99.9%), Qarabag (99.8%) and Dortmund (98.8%) to flip-of-a-coin chances for Atléti (51.2%) and Napoli (50.9%). Athletic Club (50.7%) are just behind, given the 17th-highest chance of making the play-offs and are still very much in with a shout.
Liverpool (5.5%), Ajax (8.3%) and Union Saint-Gilloise (8.6%) are the least likely to be in the play-offs of the teams who could still make it, but their chances should not be written off just yet. Anything could happen on the final matchday.
How to Follow Champions League Matchday 8
Here on Opta Analyst, we will have a live Champions League table that will update with every goal scored to show how the standings shape up at any given time during a chaotic 90 minutes next Wednesday night. It will also show every team’s live chances of making the top eight or play-off round and the likelihood of elimination, as well as everyone’s possible opponents if the table stays as it is at that moment.
Come back to theanalyst.com next week to follow along. It’s going to be eventful.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
30 of 36 Teams Still Fighting: Making Sense of the Crazy Champions League Table With the Opta Supercomputer Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about 30 of 36 teams still fighting making sense of the crazy champions league table with the opta supercomputer was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( 30 of 36 Teams Still Fighting: Making Sense of the Crazy Champions League Table With the Opta Supercomputer )
Also on site :
- ‘Free Bert’ Review: Bert Kreischer Strips Away the Shirtless Party Boy Persona, but Also the Laughs, in New Netflix Comedy
- Karamo Brown Fell Out With 'Queer Eye' Co-Stars After Hot Mic Incident
- Lands' End and BaubleBar Just Dropped the Cutest Valentine's Day Tote and Charm Kit