Home prices dip in 88% of California ...Middle East

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Home prices dip in 88% of California

Here’s some modest relief for California house hunters: values were falling in 88% of the state as 2025 ended.

To get a local sense of where prices are going, my trusty spreadsheet reviewed home value data from Zillow for 125 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, including 16 from California.

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    In the 12 months ended in December, values were down in 14 of the 16 California metros. But savings were meek, with the largest dip found in Stockton, off only 4% last year vs up 2% in 2024 and 36% over the previous four years.

    But seeing declines is noteworthy because, as recently as March 2025, no California metro had falling prices. That was the end of a 14-month streak without any year-over-year decreases.

    The late 2025 slips are a reminder that home prices don’t always rise. Zillow values in the 16 California metros combined have dropped year over year in 26% of months since 2000, mostly surrounding the Great Recession.

    Compare that to the nation. In the 109 larger metros outside of California, just 39 had price declines – that’s just 36%.

    But that, too, is above the national norm. Since 2000, those non-California metros have had declines 22% of the time.

    Pricing also looked weak using Zillow’s statewide index, which fell 2% last year, vs. rising 3% in 2024 and 38% during the previous four years.

    Nationally, prices were essentially flat last year vs. gains of 3% in 2024 and 43% in 2020-2023.

    California’s declines can be more properties for sale, nudging sellers to compete on price, and a wobbly economy scaring off some potential buyers.

    The year-end soft pricing — on top of mortgage rates at roughly three-year lows — offers a dash of hope for budget-strapped house hunters as 2026 begins.

    Who’s up?

    California’s two price gainers as of December 2025 were:

    Visalia: Off 1% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 42% previous four years.

    Fresno: Off 0.2% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 41% previous four years.

    Who’s down?

    The other metros, ranked by their 2025 dip …

    Vallejo: Off 3% last year vs. up 1% in 2024 and 28% previous four years.

    Santa Rosa: Off 3% last year vs. up 1% in 2024 and 21% previous four years.

    San Francisco: Off 3% last year vs. up 2% in 2024 and 21% previous four years.

    Inland Empire: Off 2% last year vs up 3% in 2024 and 49% previous four years.

    San Diego: Off 2% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 51% previous four years.

    Sacramento: Off 2% last year vs up 2% in 2024 and 32% previous four years.

    Salinas: Off 2% last year vs up 3% in 2024 and 41% previous four years.

    San Jose: Off 2% last year vs up 8% in 2024 and 36% previous four years.

    Los Angeles-Orange County: Off 1% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 39% previous four years.

    Ventura County:  Off 1% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 37% previous four years.

    Modesto: Off 1% last year vs up 3% in 2024 and 38% previous four years.

    Bakersfield: Off 0.2% last year vs up 5% in 2024 and 47% previous four years.

    Santa Maria/Santa Barbara: Off 0.1% last year vs up 3% in 2024 and 56% previous four years.

    Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]

     

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