Bodø/Glimt vs Man City Prediction: Can City Bounce Back from Derby Dismay? ...Middle East

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Bodø/Glimt vs Man City Prediction: Can City Bounce Back from Derby Dismay?

We look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League game at Aspmyra Stadion with our Bodø/Glimt vs Man City prediction and preview.

Bodø/Glimt vs Man City: The Key Stats

Manchester City put their derby-day defeat behind them with a win against Bodø/Glimt in 65.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of this match. Bodø/Glimt have the highest xG against (17.2) of any side in the UEFA Champions League this season. Erling Haaland has more goals in the UEFA Champions League (55 in 54 games) than all Norwegian teams combined since the 2000-01 season (48 in 42 games).

Still feeling from a derby-day defeat against Manchester United at the weekend, Manchester City immediately turn their attention to the UEFA Champions League for an important away match against Norwegian outfit Bodø/Glimt.

    Pep Guardiola’s side were beaten 2-0 at Old Trafford, and could have easily suffered a much heavier loss.

    The performance could have been Man City’s worst in this campaign, and though expectations will understandably be limited, Bodø/Glimt can take confidence from how easily Man Utd were able to deconstruct City’s weakened defence.

    A win away to Real Madrid in City’s last outing in this competition has put them in a strong position in the league phase, currently fourth of 36 teams.  The top eight qualify automatically for the round of 16. They are regarded by the Opta supercomputer as having a 98.1% chance of qualifying for the next round, but there remains a 9.8% chance of having to do so via the knockout play-offs, the stage at which City were eliminated last season, and Guardiola will be keen to avoid two extra games against potentially strong opposition.

    Bodø/Glimt are currently placed 32nd in the league phase, with just three points from six games. Along with Slavia Prague, Villareal and Kairat, they are one of four teams yet to win a game in the UCL this season.

    The Norwegian Eliteserien ended on 30 November, and Bodø/Glimt, who finished one point behind champions Viking FK, are therefore short of meaningful minutes.

    Their last competitive match was a 2-2 draw away to Dortmund in this competition on 10 December, while they have played friendlies against Groningen and Diósgyőr over the last two weeks.

    They have conceded 13 goals in the Champions League this season, but they have been fortunate not to have conceded more. They have the highest expected goals against (xGA) of any team in the competition this term (17.2), while they have conceded at least three xG in a match on the most occasions of any team, doing so in four of six games.

    Their biggest threat at the top of the pitch is no doubt Jens Petter Hauge, who is one of only two players with 15+ completed dribbles (23) and 15+ chances created (15) in the Champions League this season, along with Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise.

    This game will no doubt wet the appetite of Man City’s own Norwegian phenom, Erling Haaland, who, with just one goal in his last seven games, is in dire need of rediscovering his scoring touch.

    Should he find the net in this match, he will become the first Norwegian player to score against a Norwegian team in the Champions League.

    With 55 goals in 54 games, Haaland has scored more goals in this competition than all Norwegian teams combined since the 2000-01 season (48 in 42 games).

    While he has struggled for goals of late domestically, he rarely fails to impress on the European stage. Haaland has scored in each of his last six Champions League starts for Man City; only one player has ever had a longer run for an English club in the competition, with Ruud van Nistelrooy scoring in eight in a row for Man Utd between September 2002 and April 2003.

    A win would be momentous for Guardiola, who could achieve his 25th away victory with Man City in this competition. Alex Ferguson, with 39 at Man Utd, and Arsène Wenger, with 30 at Arsenal, are the only managers to have reached such a total with a single club in the Champions League.

    Man City will continue to be without long-term absentees Rúben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, John Stones, Mateo Kovačić and Savinho for this match, while Bernardo Silva will miss the game through suspension.

    Nico González has missed Man City’s last three games with a knock, while Oscar Bobb and Phil Foden remain doubts, with the latter having potentially suffered a fractured hand against Man Utd. Matheus Nunes also missed that game with the flu.

    Antoine Semenyo will be unavailable for selection during the league phase as he is not registered, having arrived from Bournemouth earlier this month.

    Bodø/Glimt vs Man City Head-to-Head

    Bodø/Glimt are winless in their six meetings with English sides in European competition, although they did manage to avoid defeat in the only one to take place in the Champions League (2-2 vs Tottenham on MD2 this season).

    This will be Man City’s first-ever game against a Norwegian opponent. None of the last nine English sides to face a Norwegian team away from home in major European competition have lost, with Chelsea in October 2002 the last to lose there (4-2 loss vs Viking FK in the UEFA Cup).

    Bodø/Glimt have conceded at least two goals in five of their six games against English sides in major European competition (14 in total), including in each of the last four.

    Bodø/Glimt vs Man City Prediction

    The Opta supercomputer regards Manchester City as strong favourites for this match, earning all three points in 65.9% of simulations.

    Bodø/Glimt are believed to have a 15.9% chance of pulling off a surprise victory, while a draw occurred in 18.2% of simulations.

    Bodø/Glimt vs Man City Predicted Lineups

    Bodø/Glimt: Nikita Haikin, Fredrik Sjøvold, Odin Bjørtuft, Haitam Aleesami, Isak Määttä, Patrick Berg, Ole Didrik Blomberg, Håkon Evjen, Sondre Fet, Jens Petter Hauge, Kasper Høgh.

    Head coach: Kjetil Knutsen

    Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Nathan Aké, Nico O’Reilly, Tijjani Reijnders, Rodri, Phil Foden, Rayan Cherki, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.

    Head coach: Pep Guardiola

    Opta Power Rankings

    The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

    Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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    Bodø/Glimt vs Man City Prediction: Can City Bounce Back from Derby Dismay? Opta Analyst.

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