If Robert Jenrick had defected to Reform just a few months ago, the aftermath would have been dominated by a debate over whether the Conservative Party was finished. He was the most effective member of the Shadow Cabinet and the heir presumptive for the party leadership. A vacancy for that post was expected by the following summer. Kemi Badenoch looked unlikely to survive a mauling in the May elections. For someone who had the position of leader of the opposition within his grasp to walk away from the Tories would have been, at best, a humiliation. At worst, it would have been a fatal blow.
We are not in that situation today. Badenoch’s performances and poll ratings have noticeably improved. The May election results will still be dreadful for the Tories, but it will not precipitate a leadership crisis. Up until the autumn, Jenrick had been hyperactive; since the party conference in October he has been subdued. The public’s interest shifted away from immigration towards the economy which coincided with a similar change of emphasis by the Tories. The Newark MP was in a less central position in the national debate.
We now know that throughout this time, he was in discussion with Reform about defecting. Nor did he go to great lengths to conceal the courtship. If one wanted a clandestine meeting with Nigel Farage, the private members’ club 5 Hertford Street would not be the venue of choice. But the pair met there on at least two occasions. Evidently, Jenrick did little to hide his intentions from his staff.
This resulted in a further reason why the defection was not quite the moment it might have been. Badenoch learned of the plan and executed an impeccable spoiling operation, putting both Jenrick and Reform on the back foot. What might have been the worst day of her leadership ended with her reputation enhanced. In contrast, Jenrick looked duplicitous and incompetent.
One should not, however, get carried away. Losing a prominent member of one’s frontbench team, let alone the leader of a substantial faction of the wider party, is rarely good news. There were Conservatives who were staying in the party in the hope that Jenrick, who was shadow justice secretary, would at some point assume the leadership. They may now follow his lead and move to Reform. Further defections are inevitable.
For those voters who prioritise opposing immigration and cultural change, the choice as to how to vote has become clearer. These are the issues that motivate Reform UK and, since his time as immigration minister, Jenrick. At times, Jenrick has been prepared to say things that even Farage might consider to go too far. But if a strident position on these matters is for you, it is no longer necessary to choose between Reform and Jenrick. With his addition, Reform has consolidated its position as the pre-eminent party of the populist right.
This has significant implications for the Conservative Party. There are broadly three choices for a right-of-centre political party – it can be populist, centre right, or broad-based. In asking itself which approach it should take, the Tories have to be hard-headed and realistic about where they are given the latest defection.
It is worth defining our terms and distinguishing between the populist right and the centre right.
The populist right will argue the problems we face in society are a consequence of an out-of-touch liberal elite, hostile to the interests and values of “real people”. If only the will of the people – as divined by self-appointed tribunes – was listened to, society’s problem would be easily addressed. This is rarely a world of complexity or trade-offs, but of simple solutions. Independent institutions, international co-operation, changing social mores and racial diversity are all viewed with suspicion. Instead, what is needed is a strongman, willing and capable of taking decisive action.
At a time of stagnant economic growth and of cultural overreach by the liberal left, it is no surprise that the populist right has grown in power since the global financial crisis. It is now a force in every major Western country and has twice delivered Donald Trump to the White House.
In contrast, the centre right – generally the dominant political force in the UK and most of the West – is in a weakened position. It is traditionally cautious about social change and large-scale immigration (and should not ignore these issues), but it is usually driven by economic and national security considerations, rather than cultural ones. It stands for fiscal responsibility and economic aspiration, rewarding hard work and enterprise. In contrast to the populists, it values institutions and the rule of law. It has mindset of problem-solving, and has the pragmatism to recognise that this very often requires the need for international institutions.
In a two-party system, the Conservatives were generally able to contain both traditions within them, but with the centre right very much in charge. The strains began to show at the time of the Brexit referendum and its aftermath. Boris Johnson recognised that there was a substantial part of the electorate that was not of the traditional centre right but could be persuaded to vote Tory if the party shifted in a populist direction. In the peculiar circumstances of 2019, with Brexit a prominent issue and Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party, the Tories were able to hold on to most of their traditional voters while widening their support to attract populists.
It was not a sustainable coalition. It was based on incompatible promises (higher spending and lower taxes) to be delivered by, in too many cases, incompetent ministers. Add a major and very challenging crisis (Covid), and you end up with a disastrous performance in government.
Rishi Sunak sought to pick-up the pieces, but too much damage was done and he was in too weak a political position to provide clarity as to the strategic direction of his party. He sought to hold together the 2019 Tory coalition of support but, at a time when few were prepared to give the Conservatives the benefit of the doubt, populist voters thought he was part of the elite and centrist voters thought he was pandering to the populists.
The populist territory is now firmly occupied by Reform, and has been reinforced by Jenrick. It is not going to be recovered. The 2024 result demonstrates the risks trying to do so. Insufficient effort was put in to win back centre-right voters. For fear of offending Johnson supporters, Sunak never fully distanced himself from failures in integrity that characterised Johnson and his administration. Sunak had honourably resigned from office in protest, but never made use of this act of courage. Likewise, he warned presciently of the consequences of Liz Truss’s fiscal recklessness, but in office avoided reopening a debate that reflected well on him, if not the many Tories who put her in office.
This caution over offending the right over the mistakes of the past continues to this day. It is perhaps not surprising that a party does not want to revisit difficult moments of the past, but to win back many of its lost supporters, a repudiation of the 2019-22 period in particular, is necessary (although, as more and more of the characters of that era are welcomed into Reform, this might become less of an issue). Perhaps more controversially, the Conservative Party would be mistaken in positioning itself as a party only for those who believe that leaving the EU was a wise decision, a view that puts it at odds with roughly two thirds of the public and the overwhelming majority of business opinion.
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The Tories have lost the battle to be the party of the populist right, and its efforts to reassemble the 2019 coalition – trying to maintain a broad base – fail to satisfy anyone. But the option to reassert itself as a party of centre right remains available. Indeed, the opportunity has only grown as Labour struggles in office and is set to move leftwards. The Liberal Democrats hold many centre-right constituencies, but have not moved to occupy the ideological ground vacated by the Tories. Their hearts beat on the left. Reform’s economic platform, to the extent that there is one, lacks coherence and offers as much to the left as it does to the centre right.
Badenoch responded to the news of Jenrick’s defection with tactical aplomb. If she can also meet these circumstances with strategic skill, she has the opportunity to reposition her party as an unashamedly centre-right force, focused upon economic growth and fiscal responsibility and determined to solve problems, not exploit them.
At the next election, the country deserves better than a choice between a failing Labour Government and the populist right. As the populist right self-purges itself from the Tories, a confident, centre-right Conservative Party can provide that option. The question is whether the Tories are capable of seizing this moment to offer the type of party that the country needs.
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