The abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by the United States, followed swiftly by the US turning its attention to Greenland with overt threats, have thrown the deck of cards of international relations in the air and created a situation that is fluid and unpredictable even for those accustomed to whiplash from trying to follow the policy decisions of Donald Trump and his court.
For Europe, the repeated American demand for Danish territory has confirmed beyond doubt that the continent faces challenges from expansionist powers in both east and west.
The days after the Maduro operation saw heated debate over whether this constituted a defeat or opportunity for the eastern challenger, Russia. But whether Moscow has been deterred or encouraged is not just an abstract question – it has direct, possibly existential implications for Europe.
Adding in the seizure of a shadow fleet tanker hastily reflagged as Russian, by US forces with British support, has spurred even more speculation on whether and how Vladimir Putin might grasp the moment to step up his campaign against Europe.
Russia has already learned through experience that it can escalate its disruptive waves of arson and sabotage across Europe, without fear of any meaningful costs or consequences in return.
Meanwhile, Russia gains useful information even from the most seemingly pointless of criminal actions in Europe. It learns not only about the capacity of the victim country to detect, investigate and attribute the act, but also about its willingness to respond – or lack of it.
In that respect, it is likely that little will change as Russia continues its probing and attacks.
The greater fear arises from the dismay and disarray triggered by the United States issuing overt threats to a fellow member of the Nato alliance.
It’s suggested that the undermining of what remains of Nato unity and shared purpose could bring Russia closer to feeling that it could succeed in a far more dramatic escalation, in the form of a direct challenge to a Nato member state.
That’s not only because a confrontation between the United States and Denmark would fatally compromise the purpose of Nato. In addition, Washington’s intervention in Venezuela, and its claim to mastery over the Americas, is in keeping with Russia’s view of larger powers being entitled to a free hand in what they consider their backyards. With or without an explicit agreement with the United States, Putin might well see accepting a Russian setback in Venezuela as part of a grand bargain in which the US, in turn, does not oppose Russian aims for Ukraine and Europe.
There’s no longer much public doubt over Russia’s long-term intention to change the borders of eastern Europe by force. On Russia’s maps, the process has already started. If Nato is rendered powerless or pointless, that removes the primary obstacle to Moscow’s ambitions for restoration of its empire.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean an overt escalation is imminent. Moscow has good reason to wait and see how the tussle over Greenland plays out. If Putin and those advising him follow the principle of not interrupting their enemy while he is making a mistake, they may not wish to do anything that would disrupt or destabilise relations with the US while the US is so busy destabilising its own relations with Nato allies.
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It’s always been the case that Russia would only launch an overt, undeniable attack on a Nato member state if it had convinced itself that the benefits outweighed the risk – in other words, that it could succeed in isolating the victim, and the victim was not in a position to deliver meaningful consequences in retaliation.
That task has become vastly easier as a result of the United States’s clear disinterest in the security of Europe; but still, Russia will not make a move until it is absolutely convinced that the US is out of the picture. The timing, therefore, depends not so much on Russia’s still-evolving military capability, but on the geopolitical situation, and in particular the state of European alliances. The more fragile those alliances, and the greater the antipathy of the United States towards Europe – with or without a direct confrontation with Denmark over Greenland – the greater the danger from Russia.
Russia’s ultimate aim is to destroy the Nato alliance, in order that it can have greater confidence that it can tackle its victims one by one without risk of major allies coming to their aid. In that respect, the willingness of the US to pick fights within the alliance, risking its rupture without any direct challenge from Russia, could be the greatest gift to Moscow that the Trump administration has yet offered.
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