Alabama will take on Indiana in Pasadena on New Year’s Day for a spot in the CFP semifinals.
The Crimson Tide are significant underdogs in this game, per the latest college football odds. But Alabama was also an underdog last week against Oklahoma and still managed to come away with an outright road victory.
Alabama vs. Indiana odds
Here’s a look at the up-to-date betting odds for this game:
Here’s what you should know before betting on this CFP showdown:
Alabama football news
Alabama survived a 17-0 deficit in Norman during the first round of the College Football Playoff. Quick starts have not been Alabama’s strong suit. The Crimson Tide are only averaging 4.6 points per game in the first quarter this season against power-conference opponents. That’s the second-lowest total among the 12 teams who made the Playoff this season. Ty Simpson has had an up-and-down season. He had a strong start to the year, but posted a passer efficiency rating of just 120 in a 6-game sample from Oct. 25 through Dec. 6. Simpson then responded with a strong effort against Oklahoma last time out: 232 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on 29 passes. Alabama’s running game has been non-existent virtually all season. Per Game on Paper, Alabama is 131st nationally in rushing success rate. Alabama’s defense has been solid for much of this season. The Crimson Tide are in the top-40 in both pass defense and rush defense success rate. Adjusted for strength of schedule, Alabama had the No. 20 EPA-per-play defense this season.Indiana football news
The Hoosiers have been off since they upset Ohio State to win the Big Ten Championship Game on Dec. 6. Indiana was the only FBS teams to go 13-0 this season. The Hoosiers did so with a point differential of +404, which ranks sixth-best among all FBS teams in the CFP era (since 2014). IU’s offense ranks in the top-6 in passing success rate and rushing success rate. Fernando Mendoza gets plenty of credit as IU’s quarterback, but its star running back duo has gone under-the-radar. Roman Hemby and Kaleon Black have both accounted for more than 750 yards, better than 5 yards per carry and 6+ touchdowns. If Indiana has a weakness on offense, it’s creating explosive plays. The Hoosiers’ explosive play rate is in the 53rd percentile, per Game on Paper. That’s more mediocre than bad, but certainly worth noting. Indiana’s defense was elite this season, but star pass rusher Stephen Daley is out for the year with an injury. He amassed 19 tackles for loss this season. Indiana’s cornerbacks will be tested by the likes of Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton. IU’s secondary was strong this season, though, as the Hoosiers finished No. 19 in pass defense success rate. Indiana’s defense was in the top-25 nationally in EPA-per-rush and EPA-per-pass allowed, according to Game on Paper. If IU’s defense has a weakness, it’s giving up explosive passing plays. The Hoosiers are in the 43rd percentile in explosive pass play rate defense.Alabama vs. Indiana predictions
I like Mendoza’s passing yardage under. I broke this down in more detail in a different piece, but Mendoza’s efficiency numbers took a big hit when he faced elite defenses this season. He averaged about 1.5 yards per attempt less when facing a top-35 SP+ defense than he did when facing units ranked outside of that range. I think Mendoza’s yardage projection may be a bit inflated due to just how dominant he was against sub-standard defenses. Alabama’s defense is 9th in SP+ entering this week and has no obvious weakness. I think the Tide will be able to make Mendoza uncomfortable and prevent some explosive plays.
Pick: Fernando Mendoza under 220.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM)
If an Alabama running back has a big impact on this game, I think it will be Daniel Hill. Much has been made about the Tide’s struggles in the running game this season, particularly with how often Jam Miller has been injured. But what if I told you Miller isn’t Alabama’s most efficient running back? Per CFB-Graphs, Hill has been much more effective than Miller out of the backfield on an EPA-per-rush basis (Hill is slightly above-average while Miller is well below-average). Against Oklahoma, it was Hill who earned more carries than Miller (9 to 7). I like his chances to go well over this number.
Pick: Daniel Hill over 30.5 rushing yards (-117 on Caesars)
Spenser Davis
Saturday Down South • January 1, 2026 at 8:11am
Pick Odds Under +220.5 Player Prop CFB • Alabama Crimson Tide @ Indiana Hoosiers -115 on BetMGM SCHEDULED • 01/01/2026 See all 2 picks Tally (Win %) 0-0-0 (0%) Money Meter $0.00 ROI 0.0% Betslip #1767255113511-16bd-621Alabama vs Indiana: Odds, predictions for CFP showdown at the Rose Bowl Saturday Down South.
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