ROCHESTER, N.Y. – A Yellow Alert is posted for training thunderstorms that may produce localized flash flooding, as well as gusty winds as they move east through Sunday evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Western New York into the marginal risk area for strong to severe storms (1 out of 5 risk). This means that a few storms could produce localized gusty winds with heavy downpours. A tornado is not out of the question either, as the SPC has also included a 2% tornado risk for Western New York. Though a tornado is not likely, the small outside possibility still exists. Gusty winds and heavy downpours that may lead to flash flooding are the primary concerns.
Much of the thunderstorms so far on Sunday have been limited to Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, and Genesee counties. This will likely remain the case throughout the first half of the evening. However, as the surface front and area of low pressure slowly moves, these showers will start to migrate east. That being said, though the highest risk for localized flash flooding remains in Monroe, Orleans, and Genesee counties, a moisture-laden atmosphere and wet antecedent ground conditions may support a couple areas of flash flooding further east as this line progresses across Western New York. Since 5 a.m. on Sunday, portions of Orleans, Genesee, and Wyoming counties have picked up between 1.5 to 1.8 inches of rain. Rush has picked up around an inch of rain, while surrounding areas have seen around a half inch.
Besides the active weather Sunday evening, it will stay warm and muggy with overnight temperatures dropping into the mid-60s and dew point temperatures staying around that same mark. This will make the air feel very moist and saturated. Outside of any thunderstorm-related wind gusts, winds should stay between 10 to 15 mph out with varying direction. The storm and flood threat will drastically improve after midnight, as the surface front and area of low pressure finally moves off east. Some wrap-around moisture will stay through Monday morning, so showers are still possible through the overnight hours and into Monday. However, Monday afternoon, skies will start to clear and temperatures should reach around a high of 78 degrees. Much nicer weather is expected Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and temperatures near 82 degrees with no rain in the forecast. Wednesday, unsettled weather returns and, unfortunately, sticks around through the rest of the week.
First Alert Weather: Yellow Alert continues for Sunday as heavy rain and storms slowly move through the evening WHEC.com.
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