Things Sure Have Seemed Quiet on Kazuma Okamoto, Eh? ...Middle East

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Things Sure Have Seemed Quiet on Kazuma Okamoto, Eh?

Recently, Ken Rosenthal noted how little chatter there was – at least publicly – about Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami, despite the fact that Murakami’s posting window closes on December 22. If a deal is going to happen, it has to happen SOON. Yet even Rosenthal conceded that he simply had no clue what was going to happen, or what team might ultimately sign Murakami. Some of that is a product of these posting processes being especially secretive, and I think some of it is probably tied to the extreme boom-or-bust nature of Murakami’s possible MLB future.

That got me thinking about how there is even LESS discussion of Murakami’s fellow Japanese slugger, Kazuma Okamoto, who has also been posted for MLB teams. To be fair, Okamoto’s posting window extends out to January 2, so the deadline isn’t looming quite as near, and he was posted concurrent with Tatsuya Imai, who gets more attention.

    But still, you’re talking about a 29-year-old star-level performer in Japan, coming over in a market that is relatively starved for offense. Maybe the glove won’t ultimately play at third base (though most seem to think it will), but most projections do have the bat translating at least at some level in MLB.

    Surely there are teams in on Kazuma Okamoto and trying to woo him to their city, right?

    Yet there are no recent rumors that rise to the admittedly-arbitrary level of “chatter.” It’s a little odd. I find Okamoto plausibly interesting for the Cubs, depending on how some other moves shake out, so I suppose I wanted to raise the issue here just in case I wasn’t alone. If you’re like me and wondering if we’re missing something, we’re not. It’s simply been very quiet on Okamoto in the reporting world, which could be the product of interest on the media side, or movement on the team and agent side.

    Then again, for all we know, things are actually quite hot on his market, and it’s just not getting out.

    If I had to take a guess at what’s going on, I would say it’s probably a combination of two primary things.

    First, there are still so many notable players and trades left on the market that suck up a lot of the attention (teams, media, fans). We’re not hearing a whole lot on, for example, Eugenio Suarez right now, either, and it’s not like he’s going to struggle to find a team in the end. Communication is probably happening behind the scenes at some level. It’s just limited, and/or not reported.

    Second, there’s that posting window. The thing about having a firm deadline is that, the closer that deadline comes, the more likely things are to get a little quiet. Ironic, maybe, but it’s because everyone involved knows there’s a pressure point on January 2. And if there’s one thing MLB teams freaking lovvvvve, it’s a time-based pressure point. So it’s possible a lot of interested teams are holding Kazuma Okamoto and his reps at arms length for a bit while they work on other things, knowing/hoping that he will feel more pressure come December 30, 31, January 1, and January 2.

    I think some of this, by the way, is related to the fact that the third base market as a whole has been at a standstill for a while. The specific reason there is debatable, but I suspect the interrelated Alex-Bregman-Ketel-Marte issues have something to do with it. There’s also probably a little chicken-egg situation involved: Okamoto’s posting deadline is coming, so teams want to wait on him, which means they wait on the other third basemen, which means more waiting on Okamoto, and so on and so forth. Someone has to blink first to trigger other moves, as we have seen lately in the relief market.

    From our previous discussion of Kazuma Okamoto, if you wanted more background:

    Okamoto, 29, has been one of the best hitters in Japan for several years now, and plays third base. Throw in the Cubs’ efforts to build a pipeline out of Japan, and the dots aren’t too hard to connect to the possibility of a Cubs pursuit (with Matt Shaw developing in a utility role for a year, and then possibly taking over at second base if Nico Hoerner leaves in free agency after 2026 – all TBD). Add in the bonus of Okamoto being a righty bat that can play first base, and could periodically spell Michael Busch there against tough lefties, if that was still something the Cubs were looking to do in 2026.

    Not only that, but even if the Cubs aren’t in on Okamoto, specifically, it’s just good to have another high-quality bat on the market, theoretically playing a position where the Cubs could be looking at guys like Alex Bregman or Eugenio Suarez.

    Kazuma Okamoto is a career .277/.361/.521 hitter in the NPB, which is about 50% better than league average by wRC+ at FanGraphs. He has been a monster in particular the last three seasons, and although he’s not young, you could still be looking at several years of top-tier production if he transitions well to the States. It’s not MLB pitching he’s been facing, but you love all the indicators: Okamoto doesn’t strike out, he takes a lot of walks, he keeps the ball off the ground, and he hits for power.

    For what it’s worth, Okamoto’s numbers in the last few years are just about comparable to Seiya Suzuki’s numbers when he departed the NPB, though Suzuki’s were a click better overall, and came with better peripherals. He was also three years younger at the time, so you would be projecting more peak physical years.

    Kazuma Okamoto against 93+ mph fastballs in his career .298 AVG (90 for 302)20 HR9.6 SwStr%80.2 Contact% t.co/O9463fDXTx

    — Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) October 22, 2025

    Kazuma Okamoto's 2025 NPB percentiles (min. 200 PA) pic.twitter.com/tXV9fMhmIe

    — Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) October 22, 2025

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