The virulent H3N2 flu strain has led to health leaders warning of a surge in hospital admissions, with doctors criticising the government’s lack of planning.
UK Government data showed the hospital admissions rate was 7.8 per 100,000 in the week to 30 November, a 63 per cent rise on the previous week.
On 27 October, the hospital admission rate stood at 4.04 per 100,000. In the same period last year it was 1.13 and 0.44 in 2023.
NHS England data for last week shows that hospital admissions for flu are 10 times higher than in 2023, and up 56 per cent compared to the same week the previous year, with an average of 1717 flu patients in hospital beds in England every day.
Here, we look at possible reasons why the flu outbreak is hitting the UK so hard.
Lack of preparedness
More than 8000 people died of a flu-related illness in the UK last winter.
Professor Julian Redhead, national director for urgent care for NHS England, said that predictions suggest the number of people hospitalised with flu this winter will reach between 5,000 and 8,000.
The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) has warned that the number of patients who are fit to leave hospital but unable to be discharged has increased year on year, from 11,969 in the same week in 2024 to 13,232.
Who can get a free NHS flu jab?
The free NHS flu jab is available to people who:
are aged 65 and over are pregnant live in a care home live with someone with a weakened immune system are the main carer for an older or disabled person receive a carer’s allowanceor those who have certain long-term health conditions, including:
breathing conditions like asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or cystic fibrosis heart conditions, such as coronary heart disease or heart failure chronic kidney disease liver disease, such as cirrhosis or hepatitis some conditions that affect brain or nerves, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis or cerebral palsy diabetes or Addison’s disease a weakened immune system due to a condition such as HIV or AIDS, or due to a treatment such as chemotherapy or steroid medicine problems with your spleen, such as sickle cell disease, or if you’ve had your spleen removed a learning disability being very overweight with a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or aboveIt also said that staff absences across A&E also remain “stubbornly high” at 51,924, an increase of 257 compared to the same week period in 2024.
RCEM President Dr Ian Higginson said that flu was a predictable factor every year and added: “There’s no point keeping on blaming external forces for deep-seated problems, when we conspicuously fail to plan for these events and run our hospitals in a state of permacrisis, so there is no reserve left.”
Olivier Picard, chair of the National Pharmacy Association (NPA), said starting the flu vaccine programme in September for everyone “would have protected more people before the early wave”.
The NPA also said this year’s change in eligibility for the Covid vaccine – pushing the age up from 65 to 75 and over – had left many older people unprotected.
More people need to get the flu vaccine
The NHS has recommended that everyone eligible should get their flu jab, with people who are pregnant, have chronic illnesses, or are over 65 being at particular risk.
Last year’s flu vaccine gave almost a 40 per cent reduction in hospitalisations among over-65s and 75 per cent among young people aged 2 to 17.
The cost of getting the jab privately can be between £12 and £30. Scottish Health Secretary Neil Gray urged anyone who was not eligible for the NHS jab to get it privately if they could afford to do so.
NHS England says it has given 16,905,349 flu vaccines so far this winter, but there does not appear to be a figure for how many people are eligible and therefore how many more need to have it.
Data for Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland is similarly absent.
Amid the current winter strain, the Government is being urged to offer free flu jabs to younger people following concern over the unprecedented wave of infections.
The new H3N2 strain has evolved more rapidly
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has warned that the H3N2 strain, which emerged over the summer, has evolved more rapidly than normal, which could mean less immunity in the population.
It has advised people to “wear a mask when you are unwell and need to go out”.
Several hospitals across Wiltshire and Surrey asked staff, patients and visitors to wear face coverings across units, including A&E.
Flu hospital admission rate in England (Source: PA)“It’s nasty,” Professor Antonia Ho, an infectious diseases expert at Glasgow University, said about the H3N2 strain. “People around me who have had it have been floored for weeks.”
Health Secretary Wes Streeting said: “We will do all we can to weather this storm.
“I am determined that with the proper planning, record investment and modernisation this government is bringing in, we’ll have a more resilient NHS for this winter and beyond.”
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