Although there are a handful of high-quality free agent starters available to the Cubs after they whiffed on Dylan Cease (Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez chief among them), the majority of their rumored focus seems to fall on two guys: Michael King and Tatsuya Imai.
The former is a little bit older and often injured, but has already had significant big league success. The latter has just as much (if not more) upside and is younger, but hasn’t proven himself in the big leagues yet. He’ll also cost almost twice as much, if the predictions are accurate.
Although I haven’t decided, personally, if adding Michael King + something significant (with the added cost difference between him and Imai) is preferable to signing Tatsuya Imai + something lesser, I think I’d generally be happy with either path if the Cubs could execute just right.
To that end, it’s good to see continued confirmation that the Cubs are in on both. Earlier today, Brett discussed a fresh Michael King report. And now, I’ll share additional confirmation of the Cubs interest in Tatsuya Imai.
Tatsuya Imai Rumors
In an article at The Athletic about Imai’s preferences and timeline, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney identify the potential suitors, with the Cubs getting their own little special shoutout.
Imai drew attention for his recent comments during a friendly TV interview with former Boston Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. With a laugh and a smile, Imai said that he would rather beat the Los Angeles Dodgers than join them….
Like any good competitor, Imai would enjoy facing Shohei Ohtani and attempting to win the World Series. While Imai acknowledged that having a Japanese teammate would be a valuable resource, he also expressed a desire to figure out the major-league experience on his own.
That potential preference, though, should not be a dealbreaker. It does not rule out an interested team like the Chicago Cubs, who made a concerted effort to become a destination for Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga when they left Nippon Professional Baseball.
The gist of this update is that a little too much was made of the suggestion that Tatsuya Imai would actually prefer not to have Japanese teammates, which obviously got our attention given the presence of Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga. But the more important takeaway is that the Cubs are “an interested team” for Imai’s services.
It was a brief and lightly detailed inclusion, but they were the only team called out quite like that. Indeed, there are other brief mentions of the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, and Phillies within that article, but they read much more speculatively than the seemingly reported nature of the Cubs note.
And when a report like that comes from both a National (Rosenthal) and local (Mooney) reporter, it carries some extra weight.
Tatsuya Imai’s Timeline
So what is Tatsuya Imai’s timeline? Well, there are a lot of ways to answer that.
Fortunately, we already KNOW that Imai can’t linger deep into the offseason, as his posting window ends on January 2. If he doesn’t sign by then, he cannot sign with an MLB team this offseason. Bottom line, he will pick a team by then.
Unfortunately, as Rosenthal and Mooney report, Imai intends to travel to certain cities to visit teams and check out their facilities … and that trip won’t begin until AFTER next week’s Winter Meetings in Orlando.
That, of course, could become an issue for the Cubs if Michael King is keen on signing at the Winter Meetings. Do they put the full court pressure on King and try to get what they can? Or do they let King sign elsewhere and hope they’re able to woo Imai?
The patient approach seems more likely to me, not only because it’s Jed Hoyer’s signature style, but also because of the other free agent and trade options out there. Even if the Cubs were to miss out on both, they’d likely have other, albeit potentially less attractive or more expensive, options available to them.
For what it’s worth, Jeff Passan previously indicated that Imai might choose his new team at the Winter Meetings, so there is at least some conflicting information out there. ‘Tis the season.
In any case, you can take with you some comfort in the fact that the Cubs were reportedly in on Dylan Cease (right up until the end) and are now seriously pursuing high-priced free agent starters like Michael King and Tatsuya Imai.
Tatsuya Imai Projections
If you missed some of our previous discussions on Imai and how good he projects to be in the big leagues, here’s a little taste from earlier this week:
Tatsuya Imai, 27, recently came in for an evaluation from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, as he surveyed this year’s transitions from Japan. Some reports have Imai as a possible ace in MLB, but McDaniel’s take is considerably more conservative. Among McDaniel’s comments, which follow him projecting Imai as a mid-3s ERA third starter in MLB:
“Imai is not that big, standing 5-foot-11, and though he has above-average control now, that hasn’t always been the case. His walk rate was 5.1 BB/9 in 2022, then 4.1 in 2023, 3.6 in 2024 and 2.5 in 2025. That makes him sound like a soft tosser who gets by on his newfound feel, but his four-seam fastball sits at 93-97 mph and hits 99. There’s some real stuff here, too, as his splitter is an above-average pitch by nearly any metric and his slider also performs as an above-average pitch.
I worded it that way because his slider is a unique pitch as it doesn’t ‘slide,’ or, in other words, it averages arm-side movement (like a splitter/changeup does) rather than glove side movement (like a slider/curveball does). That might sound bad, but pitching is all about deception, and hitters don’t expect a slider to move like that, which is part of the reason the pitch performed well last season, garnering a 45% miss rate and a .212 xwOBA allowed ….
Since he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer and is among the youngest free agents in the class, Imai is attractive to most of MLB, so his contract is expected to go well into nine figures. I projected an all-in cost (including posting fee to his NPB club) of $157 million over six years. If anything, that could be a bit low.” – Kiley McDaniel
If you believed Imai could be, at best, a mid-rotation starter with downside risks from there (all transitions to MLB come with significant risk), I don’t see how you could justify giving him a nine-figure deal, especially in a market with so many other options. Putting that another way, if the final deal falls into the $150 million to $200 million range, the winning bidder is necessarily going to believe that Imai could be something more than a mere touch-above-league-average starting pitcher (plus the value of having a Japanese star on your team).
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