Enab Baladi – Rakan Khader
Syrian Foreign Minister Asad al-Shibani paid a visit to China on 17 November, during which he met his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. According to the Syrian Foreign Ministry, the two discussed bilateral relations and ways to strengthen them.
The visit came after China abstained on 6 November from voting on a draft UN Security Council resolution to remove the name of Syria’s transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, from sanctions lists.
In this report, Enab Baladi seeks to read the reasons for the delayed opening in Syrian Chinese relations compared with other permanent members of the UN Security Council, foremost among them the United States of America and Russia, to explore whether al-Shibani’s visit succeeded in breaking the diplomatic deadlock, to highlight its main outcomes, and to examine the motives behind China’s Security Council stance.
A balancing act
China justified its position on the draft resolution to lift sanctions on the Syrian president by saying it did not meet the principles and considerations Beijing sees as necessary for achieving stability in Syria and combating terrorism.
China’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Fu Cong, said in his speech to the Security Council on 6 November that China’s position on sanctions had been “clear from the outset,” and that any adjustment to the sanctions regime must take into account “the security situation in Syria, counterterrorism, and the complex ramifications that could result from any change, as well as the long term interests and actual needs of the Syrian people.”
The Chinese envoy added that Syria must fulfill its obligations in the framework of counterterrorism and take decisive measures to confront terrorist acts and the threat posed by foreign fighters, including members of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) present on Syrian territory, who are predominantly Chinese Uyghurs.
Ammar Jalo, a researcher at the Center for Dialogue Research and Studies in Washington, believes that China’s abstention on the vote to lift sanctions on Syria’s transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, was a Chinese message leaving the door open to understandings with the new Syrian administration.
He did not rule out that some understandings already exist between the two sides regarding the Turkistan Islamic Party, which he says is China’s most important concern in Syria.
Political analyst Hossam Taleb, for his part, believes China has internal differences that prevent it from clearly giving the Syrian government everything it wants, because of the issue of Uyghur fighters in Syria. This file has domestic repercussions inside China, which is why Beijing is always trying to strike a balance so as not to appear to have a clear deal on this issue, something that would suggest it has allowed a red line to be crossed.
A relationship on new foundations
The Syrian Chinese meeting did not carry the same weight as Syrian American and Syrian Russian contacts. Unlike those earlier examples, which saw al-Sharaa visit Moscow and Washington for direct talks with his US and Russian counterparts, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the Beijing visit was limited to the foreign minister, Asad al-Shibani, who met only his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, without an audience with President Xi Jinping.
Analyst Hossam Taleb believes that Syrian Chinese relations are being rebuilt from scratch, especially since China was considered one of the allies of the former regime and used its veto several times in the Security Council in that regime’s favor. For that reason, he says, the relationship between the two countries needs some time.
Taleb attributes the lack of momentum in Syrian Chinese ties to the limited Chinese role on the ground in Syria, which is not comparable to the American and Russian roles.
However, the Syrian analyst does not rule out an expanded Chinese role in Syria in the future, particularly in infrastructure and reconstruction projects.
In his view, this is a gradual process that needs time before improvements in the relationship become evident, noting that it could ultimately develop in a more positive way than Syria’s relations with the United States and Russia.
For his part, researcher Ammar Jalo believes the reason for the Chinese government’s delayed engagement with the new Syrian state is that China does not have its own Middle East project comparable to the American “New Middle East” vision. He explains that Chinese foreign policy rests on a core principle of non interference in the internal affairs of other countries.
In addition, Jalo argues, China’s relationship with the Assad regime in the past created fears in Beijing that its interests in Syria could be severely shaken, as happened in Libya.
He believes these factors prompted China to adopt a cautious rapprochement with Syria, reflected in repeated references to Syria’s territorial unity in official Chinese statements, without venturing into large scale economic investments.
“Constructive” talks
The Syrian and Chinese foreign ministries issued a joint statement on 17 November following the talks between the two foreign ministers.
According to the statement, the talks were described as “constructive,” and the two sides exchanged views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern.
Both parties stressed the importance of friendship between the two countries and their peoples and affirmed their commitment to preserving and developing it in a way that serves their interests, while respecting sovereignty and non interference in each other’s internal affairs and continuing consultations in international organizations and forums.
The statement noted the two sides’ readiness to strengthen cooperation in economic and development fields and in rebuilding Syria, in addition to capacity building and improving living standards for Syrian citizens. It also highlighted their commitment to combating terrorism in all its forms and to enhancing security coordination between the two countries, as well as the importance of the China Arab Cooperation Forum in supporting collective cooperation between China and Arab states.
Analyst Hossam Taleb believes the Syrian foreign minister’s visit to China succeeded in breaking the ice in the relationship, pointing out that the joint statement focused on several important points, including China’s emphasis on Syria’s territorial unity and on non interference in Syrian internal affairs.
Despite the overall general nature of the statement, in Taleb’s view, it reaffirmed Syrian “constants,” something the Syrian government needs to bolster its standing at home and abroad.
Researcher Ammar Jalo also believes the visit succeeded in breaking the diplomatic deadlock in a tangible way. He notes that a key element in the joint statement was the emphasis on combating terrorism, which he sees as providing reassurance from the Syrian side over some Chinese concerns about possible activities by “the Chinese Turkistan Party” against Chinese interests in Syria and the region.
Jalo believes Syrian assurances on this front have been acceptable to all concerned states, including China, that Syria will not be a transit corridor or launching pad for terrorist operations against any neighboring country or against the home countries of foreign fighters present in Syria.
A successful diplomatic choice
According to the statement, the Syrian side reaffirmed its support for the “One China” principle and its recognition of Chinese government sovereignty, including its rejection of any interference in China’s internal affairs and its support for Chinese government efforts to achieve national reunification.
Regarding the possible impact of this Syrian position on relations with Western governments, especially the United States, researcher Ammar Jalo does not see any effect from Syria’s recognition of the One China principle on its relations with Western countries, including the US, since most countries in the world already recognize this principle. The number of states recognizing Taiwan, he notes, does not exceed nine and has recently decreased to six or seven globally.
Jalo believes Syrian diplomacy has made a sound choice by taking this path, especially given the opportunities for large Chinese investments to enter the Syrian market, as well as the potential for Syria to gain political and diplomatic support from Beijing in international forums.
Analyst Hossam Taleb agrees with Jalo that recognizing the One China principle will not affect Syrian American relations.
He attributes this to the fact that all governments are aware of Syria’s realities and internal differences, adding that he does not rule out a Syrian American understanding on this issue as a way to break the stalemate between Syria and China and to avoid any hostile dynamic that might arise between the two countries if Damascus had taken a different stance.
Conditional partnership, China opens the door late to Damascus Enab Baladi.
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