Enab Baladi – Mohammad Kakhi
Since the events of 7 October, Israel has been dealing with regional security through a logic of “preventive control,” prompting it to take the initiative and shape the security environment in southern Syria on its own terms.
This approach is built on repeated violations Israel seeks to impose as a new standard of dominance, ranging from pressure on residents, repeated search and arrest campaigns, and daily restrictions, to airstrikes and ground incursions. The latest of these took place in the town of Beit Jinn (southwestern countryside of Damascus, near the occupied Syrian Golan Heights), where armed local resistance confronted Israeli troops, leading to 13 deaths in Israeli shelling.
Despite Israeli media leaks suggesting that Russia is preparing to propose redeploying its military forces in southern Syria, experts say Israel does not seem interested in any force capable of limiting its freedom of action. Instead, it seeks to preserve a wide margin that enables it to move whenever it wishes without political or negotiating constraints.
The realism of reintroducing patrols
Israel has not previously objected to Moscow’s influence in Syria. Russian forces were deployed across eight positions within the “disengagement zone” along the line separating the occupied Golan Heights from Quneitra governorate in October 2024.
In recent months, Russia has reintroduced the idea of deploying Russian patrols as a buffer force between Syrian and Israeli troops. However, the Syrian government has not yet approved the Russian proposal, according to Israel’s Kan broadcaster on 18 November.
According to political researcher Ayman Eldessouki, statements and movements related to redeploying Russian patrols in southern Syria appear to be a test balloon to gauge negotiating positions. Israel’s repeated violations indicate its desire to maintain full initiative and rely solely on its own military and security apparatus to shape a security environment that guarantees long-term superiority and freedom of action.
Israel, he argues, will not be enthusiastic about any Russian deployment that conflicts with its security approach or restricts its operational mobility.
Russian political analyst Dmitry Bridzhe believes these patrols will remain limited in value unless they form part of a new Syrian framework that respects people’s sacrifices and restores the concept of a national state rather than temporary security arrangements. Russian vehicles near the border are not enough, he said, unless the ultimate objective is restoring a situation in which a national Syrian army protects the borders under a legitimate authority chosen by Syrians.
Bridzhe told Enab Baladi that reviving Russian patrols reflects a struggle over who holds the keys to southern Syria. Israel seeks to impose new realities under the banner of security and prevention, looking to establish a safe belt inside Syrian territory, while Moscow wants to demonstrate that it remains present, capable of acting as guarantor and stabilizer, and that any arrangement in the south must pass through it.
Researcher Navvar Saban, from the Arab Center for Contemporary Syrian Studies, argues that the only constant in dealing with the Israeli military is that its behavior follows no logic or predictable pattern.
“The Israeli occupation always seeks to preserve a special margin for carrying out its security operations, regardless of any international or local agreement.”Navvar Saban Conflict Analyst and Resarcher at Al Araby Center in Syria
Limiting violations
Israeli officials consistently affirm Israel’s intention to remain in areas it occupied after the fall of the Assad government. On 16 November, Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Israeli army would remain on Mount Hermon and in the security zone.
Since the collapse of the previous Syrian government in December 2024, Israel has established nine military points in the demilitarized zone. Israeli armored vehicles carry out near-daily incursions into rural Quneitra and border areas, bulldozing vegetation, raising earth barriers, restricting residents, and preventing them from working their agricultural lands.
Saban told Enab Baladi that during the previous government, Russian forces were stationed behind the “1974 Separation Line” and worked to stabilize the situation through their patrols. But if those positions are restored today, they would lie inside an area that has effectively become an Israeli military operations field, raising the question of what real role they could play.
Given Israel’s skill in what he described as “political fortune telling,” he said a Russian presence might reduce Israeli patrols and incursions or stop the establishment of new barriers between villages. But Israel will not relinquish the gains it made on the ground this year, because Israeli statements clearly confirm it does not intend to withdraw.
Shaban does not believe Russian redeployment would lead to an Israeli pullback, though it could help reduce the scale of Israeli violations. However, he said it remains impossible to predict Israeli actions, particularly after the events of 7 October.
Researcher Ayman Eldessouki believes that agreeing to dispatch such patrols could deprive the Israeli army of pretexts to operate and help neutralize its impact in the south, especially with Russia resuming a role as mediator and guarantor.
American pragmatism
According to Israeli media, the United States is unofficially restricting Israel from launching large-scale attacks inside Syrian territory. On 20 July, following the Israeli strike on the Syrian General Staff building, Axios quoted six US officials who expressed increasing concern inside the White House about Netanyahu’s regional policies. A White House official told the site that Netanyahu “is acting like a madman, bombing everything all the time,” adding that this “could undermine what President Trump is trying to do.”
Russian analyst Dmitry Bridzhe argues that Washington is acting with pure pragmatism. The US pressures Israel not to let its operations inside Syria escalate to a point that threatens broader American interests, while simultaneously opening security discussions on military positions and arrangements in Syria. This means Washington does not oppose Russia remaining a player if it helps manage escalation with Iran and other forces, but it will not allow the south to become a bargaining chip for Moscow in matters related to Ukraine, sanctions, or energy.
Researcher Ayman Eldessouki notes that the Trump administration prioritizes stability and regional prosperity in the Middle East. He points to the 2018 southern Syria agreement as precedent: Russia and the former Syrian government regained border areas adjacent to Israel after the evacuation of opposition fighters, in line with an American vision that ensured Israeli security.
What would Russia gain?
According to Eldessouki, Russia views southern Syria as a gateway to restore its strategic position in Syrian territory after the fall of the Assad government, reinforcing its negotiating leverage regarding military bases and economic interests.
Researcher Navvar Saban says Russia may try to use its role as a security mediator between Syria and Israel to advance other files, including improving relations with the United States and indirectly influencing the Ukraine issue.
Bridzhe sees the South as a card Russia uses on three levels:
Regional: presenting itself to Israel and some Arab states as a force capable of stabilizing borders and preventing major conflicts, thus justifying its continued military and political presence.
International: signaling to the United States and Europe that Moscow remains an indispensable partner in Eastern Mediterranean security.
Domestic Syrian: maintaining the image of guarantor and stabilizer as the old system collapses.
Are Russian patrols redrawing Israel’s borders? Enab Baladi.
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