Accumulating snow is likely over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, but there are still questions as to how much snow the Chicago area will see.
The approaching storm system remained about 1,000 miles off the coast of the Pacific Northwest as of Wednesday morning, so there will be adjustments to the forecast over the next few days. But surprisingly, there is a good consensus on the timing of this storm among the forecast models, even though we’re several days out.
NBC 5 Meteorologist Kevin Jeanes breaks down what we know so far and when it could happen:
Friday night
Friday is going to be cold and quiet. Snow isn’t expected to develop until after midnight Friday night and into Saturday. The snow will be light as it begins to move in, so accumulations will be minor, likely a dusting.
Saturday morning
Snow continues and some locations may see a couple of inches through Saturday morning.
Saturday afternoon and evening
Snow picks up and rates could exceed 1 inch per hour for several hours. Accumulations are expected to ramp up through Saturday evening.
Saturday night into Sunday Morning
There are three variables to watch for during the overnight hours:
Warmer air will be pushing northward from the south, which could create a wintry mix (best chance south of I-80) and cut down on snow totals. The wind is also going to shift off Lake Michigan, and water temperatures are in the upper 40s right now. So there may be a wintry mix setting up near the lake as well. Drier air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere may scale down the snow for the northwestern suburbs, or transition the snow to drizzle overnight.Sunday morning
The snow comes to an end. Lake effect snow may continue in northwest Indiana through the morning before shifting into western Michigan in the afternoon.
Snow Totals
An early look at snow amounts puts most of the Chicago area in the 3-6 inch range. The western and northern suburbs away from the lake will have the best chance to get more than 6 inches of snow through Sunday morning. There is a scenario with higher snow amounts, so we’ll continue to update as we begin to get a clearer picture from short-range forecast models.
Whatever snow we end up with will stick around for a while as even colder air moves in for the first week of December.
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