It is exactly 21 years since the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, when citizens rose up to challenge the result of an election scarred by corruption, fraud, vote-rigging and the mysterious poisoning of the main reformist candidate. This uprising is widely seen as a failure since it led to a dismal and divided government, followed by the election six years later of the chief villain Viktor Yanukovych. And it was this creep’s later attempt to return the country into Kremlin arms that sparked new protests, the annexation of Crimea and start of the grisly war that still torments our continent.
Yet the Orange Revolution was a pivotal moment in European history. It was the culmination of the revolt that started a quarter of a century earlier in the shipyards of Gdansk in Poland, when repressed people rose up to shake off the shackles of Moscow’s brutal imperialism, reassert national identities and embrace democracy. And it was a clear rebuff to Vladimir Putin, whose propaganda machinery pushed Yanukovych and had even visited Ukraine to tell voters to back his candidate.
Nine years later the Russian president’s stooge ditched the signing of an accession deal with the European Union – a move that provoked fresh protests, Yanukovych’s fall and the Kremlin’s subsequent theft of Crimea and parts of the Donbas.
Behind these turbulent events lies the desire of people to live in the freedom that we take for granted in the complacent west of Europe, rather than being ruled by a corrupt foreign dictatorship. These uprisings were driven by ideals of democracy, prosperity and the rule of law, similar to the vision that fuelled Spain’s rebirth after the death of a fascist dictator half a century ago.
Yet today we see our weak and divided continent standing on the brink of defeat as Putin carves up Ukraine with the complicity of a United States president betraying democracy before our eyes.
We are not simply witnessing a White House bid to strong-arm Ukraine into a “peace deal” that is probably another staging post in Russia’s dismemberment of their country. This dreadful document – parts of which appear to have been written originally in Russian – rewards Putin for his war crimes, even giving him chunks of Ukraine that his military failed to capture. It restricts Kyiv’s sovereignty to the shocking extent of dictating the terms of its constitution, timing of its next election, shape of its military alliances and size of its armed forces.
No such demands are made of Russia’s dictatorship – yet it would be welcomed back into the international fold, allowing the bloodstained butchers of Bucha to strut the diplomatic stage, rebuild their armed forces and strike sordid deals with Donald Trump’s pals.
Ukraine is expected to hand over land to the regime killing its soldiers, bombing its cities, raping its women and stealing its children in return for vague words about “reliable security guarantees”.
The plan’s points about rejection of “Nazi ideology and activity” are a disturbing echo of Russian rhetoric about “denazifying Ukraine”, although the real fascist inhabits the Kremlin.
Even innocuous-sounding elements such as holding elections within 100 days are vexatious when millions of Ukrainians live under occupation or have fled abroad, and Russia would unleash intense efforts to distort the result. There is, of course, no compulsion for Moscow’s monstrous despot to hold fair elections.Kyiv has fought valiantly to resist Russia at immense cost after finding itself on the frontline of a global struggle between democracy and dictatorship.
Now it has been trapped in a terrible vice by its supposed ally in Washington at the worst possible time. Trump’s latest push for a supposed peace deal comes as Ukraine’s weary troops struggle to hold positions across the 800-mile frontline that slices through their country, exhausted citizens endure worsening power cuts as winter starts to bite, and the government is badly wounded by a corrosive corruption scandal.
A weakened Volodymyr Zelensky is left confronting a terrible choice, with the US threatening to sever support if Ukraine does not submit to its repellent demands.
Perhaps this is simply another stepping stone in a process that leads to sustainable ceasefire, allowing Ukrainians living in the surviving rump of their country to realise dreams of democracy and prosperity in future decades like all the other Europeans once trapped under Moscow’s thumb. Yet this seems unlikely given the Kremlin’s continuing determination to crush Ukraine. “The conflict can be fully and definitely resolved only in the event of our clear victory on the battlefield and Ukraine’s capitulation,” said one Russian MP unequivocally after revelations of the deal emerged.
Behind the flurry of frantic efforts to strengthen Kyiv’s position in this deal, however, we are witnessing also a humiliating possible defeat for Europe.It is not simply that our continent’s leaders were cut out of the discussions so central to our security, thus advancing Putin’s desire to drive a wedge between our continent and the US. Nor that the sordid plan envisages that European taxpayers – who now provide almost all the military and humanitarian support for Ukraine – are expected to pay $100bn towards its reconstruction while the US rakes off half the profits from the investment of frozen Russian assets that are held largely in European banks.
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The terrible truth is that Russia – with its thieving elite, shrinking population and floundering armed forces – has exposed Europe’s weakness. Our leaders spew fine words of support for Ukraine. Yet our divided nations failed to deliver sufficient support for Ukraine, bickered over confiscating Moscow’s frozen assets to aid Kyiv and allowed the flow of Russian energy to fund atrocities.
Even as Putin launches disinformation and sabotage attacks across our continent, there remains reluctance to strengthen defences sufficiently. Perhaps for once we should listen to the Slovak Prime Minister and Kremlin patsy Robert Fico.”‘If this plan is signed, Russia will emerge from this war as a total winner,” he said. “Russia will come out of this war greatly strengthened.
I fear he is right – and we have betrayed that inspirational ideal of democracy.
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