Good morning.
Get a good sleep this weekend because next week is going to be a big one in politics, with consequences for us all.
Wednesday’s Budget will shape the futures of Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer.
It’s also going to have a major influence on the UK’s direction of travel, with profound questions about the shape of the British state – and who should pay what to support it.
Amid all of the turmoil and plotting, the Chancellor and PM do have great power at their fingertips – to silence rebels, seize initiative and solve fiendish problems. Will they take it? The evidence from the past 16 months is not wildly encouraging. But let’s see what Wednesday brings.
What’s certain is that Downing Street has little grip over Labour MPs. The parliamentary Labour Party is described as “a bit feral” by some former advisers to No 10.
Leadership is lacking both in No 10 and the whips’ office, where the Government’s enforcers are in disarray. Multiple sources suggest Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds doesn’t want the job, and has told MPs so. Hardly the culture of fear and patronage used historically by government whips.
As for Labour backbenchers, they are proving an unruly bunch, whose majorities (big nationally, slim locally) are contributing to their refusal to toe the line.
It is, of course, legitimate to debate policy and adherence to the manifesto. But because Labour said so little about their plans for government before being elected, there is still no central narrative to unite the party around during tough times.
Some MPs also show scant understanding of economics, a source of growing frustration in Downing Street.
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