Here’s a Look at the 2026 Cubs Payroll After the Shota Imanaga Decision ...Middle East

I had started and stopped a 2026 Cubs payroll article about three times already this offseason, reminded each time of how far things could sway based on a few key decisions. But earlier today, we got some clarity on the biggest one — Shota Imanaga accepted the one-year, $22M qualifying offer — which puts the Cubs payroll into greater focus.

All contractual data here sourced via Roster Resource and Cots Contracts, with arbitration estimates via MLB Trade Rumors. Check out any of the above for more detailed information.

2026 Cubs Payroll

Let’s start by listing the actual guys under contract and eligible for arbitration. In the first column following their name, you can find the salary they’ll earn in 2026. In the second column following their name, you’ll find their salary for purposes of the CBT payroll (luxury tax hit). Those numbers differ because the latter figure is calculated on a basis of Average Annual Value (AAV), not what they’re making in any one given year.

Combining those two (though we can’t stop here, this is just partway through the math), you get the following two figures:

The Cubs are going to tender contracts to Justin Steele and Javier Assad, but it’s at least possible that both Reese McGuire and Eli Morgan are nontendered. And that could save the Cubs an additional $3M. For now, we’ll include them in the calculus, just to be on the conservative end.

The next big chunk of change comes to the Cubs group of pre-arb players (Miguel Amaya, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Daniel Palencia, Cade Horton, and Matt Shaw). Combined, they’re estimated to cost a hair over $16M ($16,380,000 to be exact, though you can’t be exact, because those salaries can vary depending in small part on the Cubs’ generosity). Close enough to say $16.4M though.

Throw in a $4.5M for the money the Cubs owe the Yankees for Cody Bellinger ($2.5M) and the buyout of Justin Turner ($2M), and you’re left with a real-money 2026 Cubs payroll of $178,855,000.

But that’s not really the number we’ll want to know. The CBT figure is the more important one, as it more closely informs the decisions and financial flexibility of the front office. And to continue calculating that number, there are a whole host of other payments (and credits) due to the Cubs, like player benefits, league payments, and more. You can check out the specific breakdown at FanGraphs if you want to get into the nitty-gritty.

But in short, I can tell you that as of today, after the Shota Imanaga decision, the 2026 Cubs payroll for purposes of the luxury tax sits at an estimated $191,490,177.

For reference, the 2025 Cubs payroll finished the year at $227.4M. And in 2024, they finished at $238.7M. At this point, it’s worth pointing out that the first tier of the luxury tax in 2024 ($237M) and 2025 ($241M) were lower than it is in 2026: $244M.

So in theory, the Cubs could add over $50M in AAV for 2026 alone, and still be under the first tier of the luxury tax. However, even if they were going to be that aggressive overall, they tend to WANT to preserve some financial flexibility for in-season additions ($8-10M historically). So you’re really looking like something closer to $42M in the most optimistically available funds.

Had Shota Imanaga not accepted the Qualifying Offer, then, they would’ve been sitting with something closer to $64M-$72M in available payroll space. They would’ve likely had to spend some of that on another starter anyway, though, so just put it out of your mind.

But here’s the even more important thing: Just because we all think the Cubs SHOULD be able to go up to that first tier of the luxury tax (… at least), that doesn’t mean they will.

In 2024, when they got up to $238M, that required special budget approval from Tom Ricketts. The same thing happened last season, when they wanted to add Alex Bregman. Obviously, Ricketts approved both “extra” expenditures, but it makes me believe their true budget for both seasons was closer to $220M on Opening Day.

Should that be higher after playing five playoff games at Wrigley Field? Yeah. I mean, it should be higher anyway, but I’m talking about the reality of what it will be. But I still don’t know if it’s fair to just assume they’ll be able to spend $240M or whatever.

There is a wrinkle, though, and it’s something we’ve discussed before: All the outgoing free agents.

Setting aside whatever free agents the Cubs sign this offseason, they have a metric TON of payroll coming off the books in 2027. Just look at these high-cost players leaving after 2026 (CBT payroll salary included):

That is an astounding $114.75M in luxury tax dollars (if that even exists a year from now) coming off the books. There will be some raises elsewhere (though not big ones in arbitration, at least), and new free agents to pay, but that’s an absurd amount of dollars to shed, which I believe should allow them to skew more aggressive in free agency this winter.

So to recap, as of today, after the Imanaga decision, the 2026 Cubs luxury tax payroll (CBT) sits at ~$191.49M, which gives them upwards of $50M to go before hitting the lowest tier of the luxury tax.

The Shota Imanaga decision probably lops off one significant free agent pitcher from the plan, but there is still plenty of room for any of those top-shelf free agent starters they’ve been connected to (Tatsuya Imai, Dylan Cease, etc.), plus more. Again, though, that’s assuming they’re reasonably optimistic on revenue after last season and appropriately aggressive given their limited long-term financial commitments.

Hence then, the article about here s a look at the 2026 cubs payroll after the shota imanaga decision was published today ( Wednesday 19/11/2025 - 01:16 AM ) and is available on Bleacher Nation ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.

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