Progressives are on the march again in the Democratic Party — and the question is whether their momentum can be sustained.
The case that the progressive tide will keep rising is built around the tangible excitement sparked by some prominent left-wing candidates, the frustration among many Democratic voters with their party leadership, and the capacity of President Trump to mobilize his opponents as much as he does his supporters.
Voices that are more skeptical of the left caution against extrapolating national trends from a handful of elections and argue that most contests at the state level and beyond are still won in the center ground. They also look back to last fall, when then-Vice President Kamala Harris was cast by Republicans as left of the mainstream on issues such as trans rights.
The prime reason for excitement on the left right now is the New York City mayoral race, where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is a strong favorite to win.
Mamdani, who if elected would become the first Muslim mayor of the nation’s largest city, was seen as a marginal candidate when he entered the Democratic primary as a little-known state assembly member. But a wave of enthusiasm from younger voters, the appeal of his call to make New York City more affordable, and the salience of his opposition to Israel's actions in Gaza helped create an unlikely juggernaut. Mamdani defeated former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) by double digits in the primary.
Cuomo, a far more establishment-friendly figure, decided to continue his campaign as an independent. Some recent polls have shown the race tightening, but almost all of them show Mamdani retaining the lead. Cuomo supporters have urged Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa to quit the race, but he has shown no inclination to do so.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found Mamdani 10 points clear of Cuomo, with the backing of 43 percent of likely voters against Cuomo’s 33 percent. Sliwa was a distant third on 14 percent.
It isn’t just the New York mayoral race that is buoying progressive spirits, however.
In Maine, left-wing populist Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and military veteran, has caught the public imagination as he battles for the party’s 2026 Senate nomination against the establishment’s preferred candidate, Gov. Janet Mills.
Platner, who has the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), is 36 years younger than Mills. His fiery rhetoric and no-nonsense demeanor have drawn attention and support.
Platner has also shown resilience despite a raft of recent negative developments in the shape of stories focusing on a chest tattoo resembling a Nazi skull and bones and distasteful old social media posts.
“I am running as a Democrat, despite my party trying to destroy my life,” Platner said during a town hall event Monday.
Another broad sign of progressive momentum comes with growing speculation that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) could make a serious run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
The New York congresswoman wowed a huge crowd at a Mamdani rally Sunday, where Sanders also spoke. She would clearly be a top-tier candidate if she enters the presidential race.
A new poll of New Hampshire likely Democratic voters, released Monday, put Ocasio-Cortez third, behind former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).
Put it all together, and it’s easy to see why the left is confident.
“We have a movement of the masses,” Mamdani told his supporters at his Sunday rally.
But while most on the left have their spirits lifted by these recent events, they know hard battles beckon.
For a start, Mamdani hasn’t won yet. He has warned his supporters of the dangers of complacency in the campaign’s final days.
Even if he does so, some progressive veterans note that the New York race has unusual contours.
“In New York, it’s a particular kind of election that has much to do with a really good candidate [Mamdani] and, to put it mildly, a very flawed candidate [Cuomo] as well as a third whack-job candidate [Sliwa],” sad Jonathan Tasini, a progressive strategist and organizer.
There are, to be sure, many different vectors of opposition to Cuomo — voters repelled by the numerous allegations of sexual misconduct against him, which the former governor denies; progressives who dislike his centrism; other critics for whom his conduct as governor during the COVID-19 pandemic remains a contentious issue.
Sliwa, for his part, is best known for his role as the founder of the controversial Guardian Angels, a quasi-vigilante group.
On the national level, Tasini argued, it was important for the left to be clear-eyed about the fact that fury at Trump among liberal voters and public support for a genuinely left-wing policy platform are two different things.
But, he emphasized, there is at least fertile ground in which the left can plant its seeds — not least widespread economic anxiety and worries about the yawning inequalities in American life.
“Regular people are saying, ‘How the hell does Elon Musk have all this money, and Jeff Bezos have all this money, and I can’t pay my bills, and my student debt is now in arrears, and I just can’t get by?’” he said.
Voices on the center-left argue that the left is getting carried away. They note that, outside of New York, the two biggest races in the nation show centrist Democrats performing solidly.
Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) are the favorites to win gubernatorial races in their respective states.
Meanwhile, even if Mamdani wins in New York, much scrutiny will be on whether he can deliver on his campaign promise to make the city more affordable — and run the metropolis efficiently.
The left may be on the rise. But its continued ascent is far from assured.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
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