Two Good Reasons for Jed Hoyer to Spend Big in Free Agency ...Middle East

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Two Good Reasons for Jed Hoyer to Spend Big in Free Agency

There is no shortage of good reasons for the Cubs President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer, to spend big in free agency this offseason. One obvious one, for example, is that he runs the Chicago Freakin’ Cubs in a division full of small and mid-market teams — a division the Cubs haven’t won in a full season since 2017. Honestly, that should be enough.

But we also know that’s just not the way he and his GM, Carter Hawkins, think about things. They’re more deliberate (some would say more cautious), than the more aggressive teams and front offices across the league. But here’s the good news: There actually are two good, convincing reasons to open up the checkbook this winter, and it feels worth putting them down in writing.

    Cubs Free Agency Spending

    Reason #1: Flexibility Under a New CBA

    One thing Jed Hoyer was (justifiably, but annoyingly) proud of at his season-ending press conference was the tidiness of his books moving forward. The reason being more than just financial prudence, given the coming Collective Bargaining negotiations that could blow up half a season and also potentially handicap teams with new rules that limit how much (or in what way) a team can spend their payroll.

    In other words, the Cubs set up so many of their contracts to end next season (and limited their long-term spending beyond that) not just to save money, but to provide maximum flexibility in whatever world is set up by the new CBA.

    But here’s the thing, he may have done a little too good of a job.

    We’ll get into our final accounting of the Cubs payroll immediately after some of the bigger option decisions are made (Shota Imanaga being the big one, but not only one). But no matter what happens, the 2026 Chicago Cubs payroll – as of today – is relatively tiny.

    Between some older contracts coming off the books and a lack of significant arbitration raises, there’s just not much there to worry about. Again, more accurate numbers will come later, but the early reporting, via Roster Resource, has the Cubs actual payroll sitting around $135M and their luxury tax payroll sitting around $145M.

    And after the 2026 season, you’ll be hard-pressed to find any mid-market or bigger team with fewer commitments on the books. As of now, it’s basically Dansby Swanson and not much else (Roster Resource has their CBT payroll for 2027 at just $48M).

    Needless to say, there is effectively NO set of reasonable expected payroll rules or restrictions that will force the Cubs to be more prudent this offseason than normal. And that’s coming from someone who believes there probably are some big market, big spending teams out there who have to seriously consider it.

    So, that is to say, nice job, Jed. You created all the flexibility you needed. Now, it’s time to use it.

    (Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)

    Reason #2: Another “Go-For-It” Year

    Although Jed Hoyer would tell you that the Cubs endeavor to make no distinction between a “go-for-it” season and a “step-back” season, the truth is next year does have the look of another particularly competitive campaign. Not only were the Cubs good this year, they’re returning most of their key contributors (outside of, it seems, Kyle Tucker).

    But more to the point, after next season, a lot of talent will be leaving/hitting free agency: Jameson Taillon, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Matthew Boyd, Carson Kelly, etc.

    So to maximize the one additional season of control over those players, it may behoove the front office to be a little more aggressive than usual. That does not necessarily mean multiple big and long-term contracts — it could just be more high-priced deals that maximize the potential return in 2026 — but it still signals a need for relatively more aggression in the market.

    That is not to say that I think there’ll be a fall off after 2026. After all, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya, Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, Justin Steele, Cade Horton, Dansby Swanson, and Javier Assad constitute a pretty solid group of players under team control through at least 2027 (most of the much longer than that).

    But I do think the exodus of talent next year has to be a factor.

    And to take it a step further, the fact that the Cubs do have so many affordable young players under long-term control should help alleviate any concerns about spending on those bigger, expensive deals. Big impact next season might be the focus, but it’s not like there’s a wasteland waiting for them on the other side, either.

    And when you combine these two reasons, it all seems even more logical: The Cubs have enough payroll space, even without any meaningful raises, to ignore any potentially negative CBA ramifications that may be coming down the line. And they have the talent necessary to win locked up for one more season, with some cheap, quality players under control thereafter.

    But I made the featured image to this post the Charlie Brown meme for a reason. We’ve played this game before. And both times, we were (or, well, I was) wrong.

    Two offseasons ago, we were convinced the Cubs would go big in free agency, because Why else would you swipe Craig Counsell from Milwaukee while making him the highest-paid manager in the game if you weren’t expecting to go big?

    And last offseason, we were convinced the Cubs would go big in free agency, because What else were you going to do after swinging a massive trade to bring in a star like Kyle Tucker?

    So I’m not going to let myself get too excited. But I do think there is some logic behind what I wrote above. And now, we just have to hope Jed Hoyer and Tom Ricketts see it the same way.

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