Will Arsenal Win the Premier League? ...Middle East

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at Austria, the Opta supercomputer, and direct free-kicks.

It wouldn’t be an international break without a good old firing up of the Opta supercomputer.

In this week’s SVQ, we’ll take a look at its latest projections for the Premier League. Even with only seven matchdays in the books, there have been significant changes to some of the expectations. Arsenal fans, you may well want to read on.

In international football, Austria had quite the night last Thursday, beating San Marino by double figures in Vienna in World Cup qualifying. There was a specific stat that had our eyebrows raised from that game, though, which suggested manager Ralf Rangnick got his team selection spot on.

We keep it international for this week’s quiz, while our latest Ask Opta question is all about direct free-kicks.

Now, grab a slice of apple strudel and crank up the Mozart as we begin this week’s SVQ in the beautiful nation of Austria.

If you haven’t done so already, you can subscribe below for free to receive SVQ every Tuesday.

STAT – Austria’s Goal Involvement Glut

A 10-0 victory is always a notable achievement. Something about reaching double figures feels significant, even if you were already heavy favourites going into the game.

That was indeed the case for Austria, who dispatched San Marino in their World Cup qualifier last Thursday, running out 10-0 victors at Ernst-Happel-Stadion in Vienna.

Marko Arnautovic scored four times, taking him to 45 international goals and becoming his country’s all-time top goalscorer, overtaking Toni Polster (44). It was far from a one-man show, though.

The only member of Austria’s starting XI who didn’t record a goal involvement was goalkeeper Patrick Pentz. All 10 outfielders managed to get either a goal or an assist.

As well as Arnautovic’s four goals, Alexander Prass, David Alaba, Kevin Danso and Nicolas Seiwald recorded an assist each, Marcel Sabitzer claimed two assists, Konrad Laimer and Michael Gregoritsch both scored a goal, Romano Schmid got one of each, and Stefan Posch ended with two goals and an assist.

It must have been difficult for Ralf Rangnick to make subs given how well his initial selection was doing, but Nikolaus Wurmbrand came off the bench to also manage a goal and an assist, while fellow sub Florian Grillitsch also set up a goal.

While the opposition were not the strongest – San Marino are the lowest-ranked men’s international team according to FIFA (207th) – it was still quite an achievement for every single outfield starter to be directly involved in a goal.

However, Austria went on to lose 1-0 in Romania on Sunday, meaning none of their starters were involved in a goal. Quite the comedown.

Those were their first dropped points of this World Cup qualification campaign though, and Austria are still in a strong position. They are top of Group H in the UEFA qualifiers with two games remaining, two points ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina and still five ahead of Romania.

After visiting Cyprus on Matchday 7, their final qualifier is at home to Bosnia and Herzegovina, which could be quite the showdown in November.

VIZ – New Premier League Favourites

It is, of course, far too early in the season to make any sweeping statements or assumptions; in fact, the last few weeks have shown how quickly the pendulum can swing. But it never hurts to peek at what the latest projections are in the Premier League.

After MD5 of the 2025-26 season, defending champions Liverpool were favourites to retain their crown. They sat top of the Premier League by five points after a perfect start, and the supercomputer at that point gave the Reds a roughly 50% chance of finishing first again this season.

However, Liverpool have not only lost top spot in the Premier League after back-to-back defeats at Crystal Palace and Chelsea, but also the tag of favourites with the supercomputer.

Arsenal overtook them in the league and now lead the way by a point, while the Gunners are also the new title favourites with the Opta supercomputer. Mikel Arteta’s men go on to lift the Premier League title for the first time in 22 years in 44.0% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 season-long simulations.

Liverpool only retain their crown in 31.3% of sims, while Manchester City regain it in 14.3%.

No other team wins the Premier League in more than 3% of simulations, with Liverpool’s conquerors Chelsea (2.6%) and Palace (2.5%) the next likeliest.

Newcastle United (1.3%), Tottenham Hotspur (1.1%) and Bournemouth (1.1%) are the only other clubs to win it in more than 1% of sims.

As for relegation, Burnley are the current favourites to go down according to the supercomputer, finishing in the bottom three 63.0% of the time, while Wolves (59.3%) and West Ham (42.7%) are supposedly the likeliest to join them.

Leeds United and Sunderland have adapted pretty well to the top flight since promotion, but are still seen as fourth and fifth favourites for the drop at 35.3% and 32.7% respectively, while Nottingham Forest’s wobbles under Ange Postecoglou mean the supercomputer has them being relegated in 30.3% of sims just a season after qualifying for Europe.

With 31 matches to go for each team, all of this can change significantly. Just ask the Liverpool from two matchdays ago.

It is advantage Arsenal for now, though, and we’ll have an in-depth piece on the Gunners going live on Opta Analyst on Wednesday.

QUIZ – International Break Brainteasers

As promised, this week’s quiz is all about the international break, specifically the home nations and the Republic of Ireland. Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. England scored three goals inside the opening 20 minutes in their friendly win against Wales on Thursday, the first time they had done so in a game since November 1987 when the Three Lions beat which team?

2. Northern Ireland still have a chance of qualifying for the World Cup, despite a 1-0 loss to Germany on Monday. When was the last time they qualified for the tournament?

3. Aged 20 years and 357 days when he played against Portugal on Saturday, Evan Ferguson became the second-youngest player to reach 25 caps for Republic of Ireland, behind which other striker?

4. After victories against Greece and Belarus, Scotland are now unbeaten in 13 consecutive home World Cup qualifying group matches (excl. play-offs – W10 D3), with their last defeat in a qualifying group match on home soil coming over 12 years ago. Who was it against?

5. After 14 games as Wales manager, how many has Craig Bellamy won?

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Ask Opta

This week’s question comes from Daryl J, who asks: “It hasn’t felt like many direct free-kicks have been scored in the Premier League. How does this season compare to others?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

There have been three goals from direct free-kicks in the Premier League this season: Dominik Szoboszlai for Liverpool vs Arsenal, Anton Stach for Leeds vs Wolves, and Antoine Semenyo for Bournemouth vs Leeds. That works out at 0.04 direct free-kick goals per game.

That isn’t a lot, but it is a slightly higher ratio than recent seasons. Both the 2023-24 (11) and 2024-25 (13) Premier League campaigns averaged around 0.03 direct free-kick goals per game.

There has been a bit of a downward trend in recent seasons of direct free-kicks leading to goals in England’s top flight. Of the 33 completed Premier League seasons, the five most recent campaigns are all in the bottom 12 for goals per game from direct free-kicks.

The most direct free-kicks scored in a Premier League season was 2007-08, when 41 found the net (0.11 per game).

Quiz Answers

1. England scored three goals inside the opening 20 minutes in their friendly win against Wales on Thursday, the first time they had done so in a game since November 1987 when the Three Lions beat which team?

Yugoslavia, with goals from Peter Beardsley, John Barnes and Bryan Robson

2. Northern Ireland still have a chance of qualifying for the World Cup, despite a 1-0 loss to Germany on Monday. When was the last time they qualified for the tournament?

1986

3. Aged 20 years and 357 days when he played against Portugal on Saturday, Evan Ferguson became the second-youngest player to reach 25 caps for Republic of Ireland, behind which other striker?

Robbie Keane (20y 329d), whose 25th cap also came against Portugal in a World Cup qualifier back in June 2001

4. After victories against Greece and Belarus, Scotland are now unbeaten in 13 consecutive home World Cup qualifying group matches (excl. play-offs – W10 D3), with their last defeat in a qualifying group match on home soil coming over 12 years ago. Who was it against?

Belgium, a 2-0 loss in September 2013

5. After 14 games as Wales manager, how many has Craig Bellamy won?

Six (D4 L4)

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Will Arsenal Win the Premier League? Opta Analyst.

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