The Tories are clearly in a bad position. Their polling is now at around 17 per cent, behind Reform UK and Labour.
There are many causes for this predicament, but too often the blame is laid at the “mini-Budget”, the plan I presented as chancellor in 2022.
I was at the heart of, and partially responsible for, that period of drama and chaos. I do not look back fondly on those days. I have done, on a personal level, my fair share of apologies.
But the current Tory front bench seems to be still apologising. In his speech at the Conservative Party conference, shadow Chancellor Mel Stride reiterated past comments about what a mistake he thought the mini-Budget was.
He said: “We will bring taxes down, we must, but we will only do so when that is affordable. Just as Nigel Lawson did. Because we know where the alternative path leads, we saw that with the mini-Budget in 2022. So let me be clear, the Conservative Party will never, ever make fiscal commitments without spelling out exactly how they will be paid for.”
Playing defence all the time is not the right way forward. It is not a recipe for success. The Tories will need a positive message to actually inspire people if they are to have a chance of actually winning an election. A vision or narrative about why they, rather than Labour or the Reform party, are best placed to deal with our national problems. Dragging up the past won’t do that.
Instead, the party should be building a narrative about wealth creation. That sounds abstract, but it is important to argue the case for normal people owning property and being able to start a business. They should be able to do this without overburdensome taxes.
Law and order, defence, patriotism. These are traditional Tory issues, but when was the last time we heard the Tories say anything meaningful, sensible, or coherent about any of these themes? Of course, in an ideal world, the Conservatives would knit these themes together to present to the electorate a vision of the Conservative Party for the mid-21st century, not merely a Thatcherite tribute act, reflecting the world of 1985.
Although Labour has weaponised the Liz Truss debacle, the Tories shouldn’t concern themselves too much. Labour has made big mistakes of their own and continuing to blame the Government before them won’t sit well with the public much longer.
Their position in the polls, hovering in the low 20s, is exactly the same as the Tories after 14 years in government. The difference, of course, is that they have reached these depths of unpopularity after barely a year in power.
square HUGO GYE The Tories hate themselves – no wonder voters can't bear them either
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On coming into government, Labour claimed the Tories left a black hole of £22bn. Of course, the Tories disputed this claim, but even if we accept Labour’s initial claim, most commentators believe the black hole is far worse now.
In August, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, an independent thinktank, estimated that the Chancellor would have to plug a £50bn hole in the public finances. That’s more than twice the fiscal deficit they themselves said they inherited.
As for their right-wing rivals, Reform UK, the Tories have nothing to fear from them as far as pure policy is concerned. Reform’s economic package is totally incoherent. They offer the usual populist brew of tough immigration talk and naked, fiscally irresponsible economic populism.
Between the hard rock of Labour’s tax and spend doom loop and the deep blue sea of Reform’s economic populism, there is certainly a path for the Conservatives.
They will not navigate this path if they adopt a perpetual pose of defensive cringing and apologies for events more than three years ago.
The Tories need to have a vision which they should clearly articulate. Obviously, this is easier said than done. Yet a positive vision, and a dose of economic reality are needed if they are to have any chance of recovery.
Kwasi Kwarteng is a former Conservative MP. He served as chancellor between September and October 2022 under Liz Truss
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