Amid the constant outrage and culture war fodder from the Trump White House and wider ultra-online Magaverse, it is easy to forget that there is a much wider pool of Donald Trump voters who simply aren’t like that.
Day-to-day, it feels like every Trump supporter is cheering on his dangerous authoritarianism and delighting in “owning the libs”. Plenty are doing exactly that, but Trump secured his second term in the White House by appealing to millions of Americans who simply didn’t care very much about these issues.
We shouldn’t accidentally lionise these voters or place them on a pedestal. They knew Trump was a convicted criminal, and they had seen the deadly insurrection on 6 January, 2021, and voted for Trump anyway – but they generally did so in spite of these things, not because of them.
Poll after poll shows that millions of people voted Trump because they believed he could grow the economy, bring down inflation – and so help address the cost of living crisis – and that his “America First” agenda meant an end to the deployment of US troops in “foreign wars”. As odd as it may seem, they were voting Trump for a quiet, and hopefully slightly more prosperous, life.
That is not what is being delivered. The people who voted for Trump were willing, perhaps even happy, to shrug off left-wing and liberal outrage at many of his early actions at first, but increasingly the Trump administration is committing outrages even his desensitised voter base is finding difficult to ignore.
Trump voters want the southern borders closed, and they definitely want criminal illegal immigrants to be deported. But the reality of mass raids by ICE throwing out friends and neighbours who have lived peacefully in their towns for decades, who go to their church, and who raised their children there, is different. Support for Trump’s deportation policies is falling across the board, especially among the independent voters who decide American presidential elections.
But the issue that might fracture the Maga coalition even further is Trump’s incremental war on Democratic cities. Several months ago, Trump sent in the national guard and even federal troops to Los Angeles on a dubious legal basis that was struck down several times by the courts.
In recent days, this is escalating into other cities. Trump has repeatedly appeared confused about supposed violence in Portland, Oregon – where there are small-scale protests against ICE, mostly confined to one city block.
Fox News ran archive footage of burning buildings and violent riots from several years ago. Trump has repeatedly referred to these scenes as if they are current, and his White House seems ready to send troops into Portland to contain an imaginary crisis.
In Chicago, ICE’s presence is becoming so violent that their personnel have clashed with Chicago’s own police department, even leading to ICE reportedly tear-gassing police officers. Videos of ICE officers blatantly assaulting citizens in the street are leading the news. Trump’s response has been to send in national guard troops from Texas – a state more than 1,000 miles away.
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The President who promised to stop sending American soldiers over to foreign wars is now sending troops into American cities. Trump has even started threatening to invoke the Insurrection Act – an emergency law that allows the president to deploy troops to keep order – against Democrat-controlled areas.
This is obviously dangerous, morally wrong, and incredibly risky. If this were happening in almost any other country, international commentators would seriously be warning of the risk of the situation escalating into civil war. But something being dangerous, unlawful, or wrong has never given this White House any reason to pause before.
What might stop them is a reminder that their actual voters – as opposed to their too-online cheerleaders – hate this. If pictures of American troops in war zones overseas upset them, pictures of them 50 miles down the road are not going to do any better. When the culture war escalates into real-world street fighting, people rapidly lose their patience with it.
Trump likes to boast that he’s “ended seven wars” since returning to the presidency. He promised to end the wars in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza on “day one” of his term. He has aggressively lobbied for the Nobel Peace Prize. And yet he seems determined to wage a war at home.
Trump’s voters put him into office to make their lives better, not to sink them into chaos. They might have made a terrible choice there, but that was their expectation. If Trump doesn’t find a way back from this precipice, even if the situation doesn’t descend into violence, he might find himself isolated and unpopular.
That could shatter his hold over the Republican Party, but even if it didn’t – Trump has never been able to cope with not being loved. He might be about to make himself even unhappier than he already is.
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