Unai Emery is back in his favourite competition, the UEFA Europa League. We look ahead to Thursday’s Matchday 1 clash with our Aston Villa vs Bologna prediction and preview.
Aston Villa vs Bologna: The Key Stats
Aston Villa claimed all three points against Bologna in a massive 60.8% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Villa manager Unai Emery holds the record for the most games managed (93), most wins (56) and most titles won (4) in Europa League history. Bologna are winless in their last five European games against English opponents (D1 L4).Unai Emery will hope the Europa League brings familiar comforts for his struggling Aston Villa when they host Bologna to open their campaign on Thursday.
Sunday’s 1-1 draw with 10-man Sunderland at least saw Villa score for their first time this Premier League season, but they remain without a win and with just three points to their name.
Matty Cash‘s long-range effort was cancelled out by Wilson Isidor’s instinctive finish at the Stadium of Light. This season is just the fourth instance in Villa’s entire history that they have opened a league campaign without winning any of their first five games.
Cash’s goal was just the second Villa have scored in all competitions this season – after Harvey Elliott’s strike in the EFL Cup versus Brentford – despite attempting 64 shots. That 3.1% shot conversion rate is the worst of all 20 Premier League clubs this season.
Emery will hope his favourite competition can bring some respite. His four Europa League titles are the most in history, winning it three times with Sevilla and once with Villarreal.
His 56 wins also puts him top of the pile in the competition’s all-time standings. Emery’s success in UEFA’s secondary club competition is no coincidence, having overseen the most Europa League games of any manager (93).
The Spaniard reached the final in his last five full campaigns in the competition, but Villa were nearly not in this competition at all.
A controversial final-day defeat at Manchester United last season saw Newcastle United pip them to the fifth and final Champions League spot on goal difference. Emiliano Martínez was sent off in the first half at Old Trafford that day, while Morgan Rogers saw what would have been an opener ruled out for a questionable foul on United goalkeeper Altay Bayindir.
Emery raged at the decision that saw Villa squander the chance for back-to-back Champions League campaigns. They reached the quarter-finals of the 2024-25 edition before losing 5-4 on aggregate in a thrilling two-legged encounter with eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain.
Indeed, Villa netted 23 goals in last season’s competition, their most ever in a major European campaign, and Emery will hope his side can rediscover that form at Villa Park for their opener.
Bologna also featured in last season’s Champions League, exiting in the league phase after managing just one win from eight games and finishing 28th in the 36-team standings.
A Coppa Italia triumph last term, their first major trophy since 1974, saw them qualify for this season’s Europa League. They are now set to feature in major European competition in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1998-99 and 1999-00 in the UEFA Cup.
Dan Ndoye scored the winner in the Coppa Italia final against Milan but has since left for Nottingham Forest. Jonathan Rowe was brought in from Marseille as a replacement, though goals have been somewhat lacking across Bologna’s squad.
They edged to a 2-1 victory over Genoa on Saturday, thanks to Riccardo Orsolini‘s 99th-minute penalty. Santiago Castro had earlier equalised for Vincenzo Italiano’s side in the Serie A clash.
Italiano will hope victory can breathe confidence into their European charge, having seen his side win back-to-back home games in Serie A for the first time since winning six in a row between January and March.
Nicolò Casale, Tommaso Pobega, Ibrahim Sulemana and Ciro Immobile all missed the win over Genoa and will likely remain out for Thursday. Villa, meanwhile, will be without Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana, though Victor Lindelöf could return.
Aston Villa vs Bologna Head-to-Head
This will be the second consecutive season that Villa have faced Bologna in European competition. Emery’s side won 2-0 in last season’s Champions League at Villa Park.
John McGinn and Jhon Durán scored in that victory last October, condemning Bologna to four consecutive away defeats in major European competition for the first time in history.
The Italian side are also winless in their last five European games against English opponents (D1 L4) since a 1-0 win over Leeds United in March 1967 in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup.
Aston Villa vs Bologna Prediction
Despite Villa’s recent struggles, the Opta supercomputer heavily favours a home win on Thursday.
Villa claimed victory in 60.8% of 10,000 pre-match simulations, while the draw was rated at 20.6%. Bologna’s 18.6% chance of winning accounted for the rest of the outcomes in the data-led sims.
Aston Villa vs Bologna Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Tyrone Mings, Lucas Digne, John McGinn, Boubacar Kamara, Evann Guessand, Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendía, Ollie Watkins.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Bologna: Lukasz Skorupski, Nadir Zortea, Torbjørn Heggem, Jhon Lucumí, Charalampos Lykogiannis, Nikola Moro, Remo Freuler, Riccardo Orsolini, Federico Bernardeschi, Benjamín Domínguez, Santiago Castro.
Head coach: Vincenzo Italiano
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off at Villa Park on Thursday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Aston Villa vs Bologna Prediction: Can Unai Emery Rediscover Winning Formula? Opta Analyst.
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