Will MLB’s real World Series contenders please stand up? We turn to the numbers that might provide a more current snapshot of each club’s playoff potency.
It has been a dizzy year in MLB.
It has felt borderline impossible to keep the top contenders upright and in your line of sight. Just in July, usual suspects like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies all posted sub-.500 records while the Milwaukee Brewers rocketed out to best team in baseball status.
That’s not to say it has been chaotic, per se. The MLB postseason picture is only competitive on the fringes, so those frequent pennant hopefuls are approaching October with their chances very much intact, even if our understanding of their powers is shaky at best.
Every postseason-bound team, with the possible exception of Milwaukee, has looked capable of stumbling over the nearest curb. And quite a few of them have looked primed to make the charge for a title.
So which is which?
Seeing as the standings aren’t providing much help, let’s try to whittle down the field to the clubs that have what it takes to win it all.
Generally, there is a baseline level of offensive excellence required to be a true World Series threat. Since the second wild card was added in 2012, only six of the 26 World Series participants have finished outside MLB’s top 10 in park-adjusted OPS+.
Applied to this year’s contenders, that’s a strike against the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and San Diego Padres (plus the Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants, should they find a way into the field).
Every pennant winner in the past decade has featured at least one hitter with an OPS+ of 125 or better (in at least 300 plate appearances). At least right now, the Brewers’ fully stocked lineup of all-around contributors can’t claim one of those. Though in true Brewers form, they have several guys in range of the threshold who could top it by season’s end.
Pitching is less helpful as an eliminator. Both teams in last year’s Fall Classic had starting rotations that sagged into the bottom half of the league after the All-Star break. Seven pennant winners since 2015 have worked around worse-than-average bullpens. Almost no one makes a deep postseason push while giving up more runs per game than the MLB average … but no contenders are below that line this season.
So let’s turn to numbers that might provide a more current snapshot of a club’s potency. While it’s plenty possible to snap out of a second-half swoon just in time for a magical October, there are depths that make it unlikely.
Only four teams in the expanded wild-card era have reached the World Series after trudging through a month with a sub-.400 winning percentage. That’s a strike against the Mets (or the Diamondbacks, should Arizona catch New York), and a second strike against the Tigers, Red Sox, Guardians and San Francisco Giants.
Sticking with the recency bias, every pennant winner in the past decade except the 2023 Diamondbacks has boasted an above-average OPS in the second half before their run. That would put the slumping Chicago Cubs behind the eight ball here in 2025.
If you’re keeping track, that leaves five teams in postseason position unscathed, so it’s time to turn positive. These are the teams that must be “actually good.” (We think.)
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Philadelphia Phillies
Dave Dombrowski’s club has officially wrested control of the NL East away from the Atlanta Braves. The star-studded Phillies are one of only two teams that can boast a top-10 offense (by OPS+) and a top-10 pitching staff (by ERA+), the Brewers being the other.
Even with ace Zack Wheeler out for the season, the Phillies can confidently roll with NL Cy Young candidate Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo.
Kyle Schwarber, at 53 homers and counting, and Bryce Harper are steady forces, but it’s a rejuvenated supporting cast that has made the Phillies so scary since the All-Star break. Bryson Stott, Harrison Bader and Brandon Marsh have all posted OPS marks well above .800 in the second half.
If Trea Turner is able to return from his injury, this sure looks like the most complete lineup in the playoffs. And yet, one team has outperformed them in the second half.
Toronto Blue Jays
Another thunderous offense, another injury concern at shortstop. The Blue Jays will look a lot more dynamic with Bo Bichette in the lineup, but the surprise AL East leaders are going to terrify opposing pitchers regardless.
George Springer has discovered the fountain of youth – or perhaps a spring of hitting maturity – in his age-35 season. Lifting the ball with power, but maintaining a selective aggression, Springer is running a career best .391 on-base percentage to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contact-power combo.
That offense, clearly MLB’s best in the second half, will be backing a rotation that has gotten a lot more interesting in recent weeks. Kevin Gausman has found a second wind. Since Aug. 1, the veteran with the nasty splitter is 10th in baseball with a 2.51 ERA and first with 61 innings.
Behind him, they have the upside of a recently acquired and activated Shane Bieber, plus Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios and newly called up prospect Trey Yesavage.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have not been fun to watch lately. But within that frustration, there’s a massive silver lining. The beleaguered bullpen keeps having leads to throw away.
The Dodgers rotation leads the starting pitching pack in the second half by pretty much whatever metric you want to look at – ERA, park-adjusted ERA, K-BB%, home run rate, WHIP.
It’s all coming up blue.
The trio of Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell look like an absolute terror. Unfortunately, the back end of Dave Roberts’ bullpen looks like a terror of a different sort, with Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in the throes of meltdowns.
There was briefly buzz about Shohei Ohtani playing the outfield to make himself available as a bullpen option, and now Roki Sasaki is going to work in relief as he ramps up in the minors.
The defending champs won’t enter October with the upper hand, but a creative bullpen solution from their wealth of starters could once again render them the favorites.
New York Yankees
For all the trials and travails of the 2025 Yankees – from Aaron Judge’s elbow limitations to the frustration around Anthony Volpe – the Bronx Bombers still have MLB’s best offense by OPS+.
They are 33 homers clear of the second-place lineup, and Aaron Boone can pencil in at least six imminent threats to go yard in any given lineup.
In addition to Judge, the AL MVP co-favorite about whom there’s little left to say, they can trot out breakout bat Ben Rice (23 homers), Trent Grisham (33 homers, somehow), Cody Bellinger (29 homers), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (29 homers) and a vintage version of Giancarlo Stanton who looks to be in peak form.
The Yankees’ biggest question mark is the bullpen, but with the return of Luis Gil and the continued success of rookie starters Cam Schlittler and Will Warren, they will also have a chance to pad that group with a talent infusion come October.
Seattle Mariners
It’s not just the Big Dumper. Cal Raleigh’s rollicking, historic season is a sight to behold, but it’s just one piece of a lineup renaissance in Seattle. A one-trick offense that collectively batted just .224 last year has found a more well-rounded mix.
Julio Rodriguez has quietly been putting up superstar numbers again, batting .303 with 16 homers since the All-Star break. Josh Naylor and Dominic Canzone are also providing steady bats (and decent batting averages) down the stretch.
All of that together means these Mariners keep the line moving and dodge the glaring weaknesses that showed up as red flags for other clubs.
The starting pitching, a calling card in recent seasons, hasn’t quite lived up to its reputation, but George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are healthy and showing signs of rounding into form.
Seattle will be battling down to the last day to try to take the AL West from Houston, but they could well find themselves in a much better position thanks to a lineup finding reinforcements at the right time.
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Which of MLB’s Postseason Contenders Are Actually Good? Opta Analyst.
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