There are nine Premier League clubs competing in European competition this season. Here, we look at their respective chances of success.
European football is back.
Tuesday marks the return of the UEFA Champions League and the beginning of UEFA’s club season for 2025-26, with the Europa League and Conference League set to start next week.
English football holds a particular interest in the UEFA competitions this term simply because there are so many Premier League clubs involved.
Nine Premier League teams are due to feature across the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League in 2025-26 – it’s the joint-second most clubs any nation has ever fielded in a single season of UEFA competitions (France – 10 in 1997-98).
Graham Bell / Senior Multimedia ProducerThere’s also the additional factor of an extra Champions League qualification spot for next season. Part of the reason there are so many English clubs competing in Europe this season is that they generally did well in 2024-25, winning enough coefficient points to ensure fifth place in the Premier League qualified for the UCL – Newcastle were ultimately the beneficiaries. Given there are so many English teams featuring, there seems a reasonable chance of a repeat this term.
But before a ball is kicked in any of the competitions, what are the respective outlooks of the nine Premier League teams involved in UEFA tournaments this season? Here, the Opta supercomputer considers their respective chances of success…
Champions League
The Premier League has six clubs competing in the Champions League for the first time ever, and the Opta supercomputer suggests there’s a pretty strong chance one of them goes all the way, lifting the trophy at the Puskás Aréna, Budapest on 30 May.
It obviously helps that the projection model rates Liverpool as favourites, with Arne Slot’s men going all the way in 20.6% of the latest 10,000 simulations.
And then the second favourites are also from the Premier League; Arsenal are deemed to be the next likeliest to succeed, winning their maiden UCL title 15.3% of the time.
Such is the strength of the Premier League that four of the six favourites are English teams, with Manchester City triumphant in 8.7% of the sims and Chelsea clinching European success for the second season in a row in 7.2% after their Conference League win in 2024-25.
Newcastle (3.1%) and Tottenham (1.5%) are considered rather less of a threat, though both are still in the top 13.
In all, an English team were crowned European champions in 56.4% of the latest 10,000 simulations – so, more than half.
It clearly helps that they are so many of them, of course, but this also reminds you just how strong England’s top flight is.
Europa League
Last season, two English clubs made it all the way to the final of the Europa League in Bilbao.
Manchester United and Tottenham had been deemed among the frontrunners from the start, and although both clubs had miserable campaigns domestically, it was a different story in Europe.
As it happened, Tottenham were victorious, winning their first trophy of any kind since 2008, and their first in Europe for 41 years.
By a curious quirk of fate, their manager – Ange Postecoglou – is now in charge of another of the English sides competing in the Europa League this season after Spurs dismissed him in the summer.
Any Nottingham Forest fan will readily remind you of their history in European competition as one of just four English clubs to win the European Cup/Champions League more than once – even if you haven’t asked.
But they have little in the way of recent history in European competition to draw upon, with this set to be their first continental campaign since featuring in the 1995-96 UEFA Cup (the Europa League’s predecessor).
Nevertheless, the Opta supercomputer considers them to have the requisite quality to go far, winning the competition in 11.1% of the 10,000 sims. That makes them joint-second favourites with Roma as Postecoglou looks to win the Europa League two seasons in a row.
They aren’t the supercomputer’s darlings, however. Aston Villa are big favourites for the Europa League according to the projection model.
Their 23.4% likelihood of going all the way makes them more than twice as likely as any other team, despite a difficult start to the 2025-26 Premier League season that’s seen them fail to win (or even score in) any of their first four matches.
Villa did impress in the Champions League last term, putting up a real fight against eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain as they were eliminated in the quarter-finals 5-4 on aggregate.
They last won a major European trophy in 1982. That drought could well come to an end in 2025-26.
Conference League
You have to feel a little sorry for Crystal Palace. They technically qualified for the Europa League thanks to their stunning FA Cup success last season.
However, they were replaced by Nottingham Forest and demoted to the Conference League due to UEFA determining that as of 1 March 2025, John Textor had control or influence of both Palace and Lyon – who had also qualified for the Europa League – which therefore constituted “a breach of UEFA multi-club ownership regulations.”
Palace took the case all the way to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) but their appeal was unsuccessful in spite of Textor selling his stake in the club in July.
They would have been rated as among the favourites for the Europa League, but they’ll have to make do with being even more fancied in the Conference League.
Remarkably, Palace lifted the trophy in 49.2% of the latest 10,000 simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer; that’s more than four times as often as any other team.
Fiorentina are the one other club to even win the competition in more than 10% of simulations, with the supercomputer making them second favourites at 11.5%.
English clubs have done well in this competition, winning two of the four editions since its inception. West Ham won it in 2023, before Chelsea took the title last term. Judging by the supercomputer’s calculations, it’ll be a shock if Palace don’t add to that.
*All data correct as of Tuesday 16 September
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