Early this season, it was a fun half-joke to explore how Carson Kelly’s absurd production had parallels to that of Barry Bonds (made all the more fun by the fact that Kelly had actually taken some cues from the legendary slugger (don’t worry, not those cues)).
As expected, the production fell off a bit, returning for a long stretch to something closer to what Kelly had been for most of his career. But! Then Kelly took off again! But! Then he slumped again, this time with a massive power outage, with no homers from July 22 through the end of August.
With the start of September, Kelly has now homered three times in four games, and here’s hoping he’s lining himself up for a hot finish to the year, when the Cubs need his offense the most.
Bit of a funny thing happened along the way of all those extreme ups and downs: Kelly has simply settled into having an outstanding overall offensive season. Peaks and valleys are inevitable in a season – maybe not QUITE as extreme as Kelly’s have been, but it happens – and that’s why we like to consider the largest possible sample(s) when evaluating a player’s performance. For Kelly, who is now up to 366 plate appearances on the season, it’s been the best offensive season of his career, hitting .256/.347/.453/125 wRC+.
That’s a slash line you’d take from a first baseman, much less from your catcher – who, by the way, has rated out excellently behind the plate, and has pretty clearly been an important part of the pitching infrastructure’s success.
I mention the 366 plate appearances, by the way, not only because it’s approaching a full season’s worth for a 1-A/1-B type catcher situation. It also happens to be one more plate appearance than his previous career high. So Carson Kelly is putting up the best offensive season of his career (by far), and he’s now done it over the most plate appearances of any season in his career.
But wait, there’s more!
One of the coolest things about Kelly’s performance this year is that he has earned every bit of his results. It’d be one thing if those results up there were simply the product of a whole lot of luck. But no: Kelly’s .347 wOBA is just one point higher than his .346 expected wOBA. He is a dude walking 11.7% of the time, striking out just 17.5% of the time, barreling the ball 9.4% of the time, hitting it hard 39.5% of the time, and putting it on the ground just 39.5% of the time. Generally speaking, that’s a dude you would EXPECT to have pretty good results by this point in the season.
Kelly, who turned 31 in July, may or may not be able to replicate his offensive success again in 2026, but it’s certainly encouraging that he’s earned his results after making some changes to his offensive approach last year. And it’s very good to know that the Cubs have Carson Kelly under contract for another season, too.
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