ROCHESTER, N.Y. – For many in Rochester, fall is a favorite time of year, and meteorological fall (which differs from astronomical fall) officially spans September, October, and November. So, what kind of weather should we expect as we transition into this next season?
Shortly after the Labor Day, it looks like we will enjoy a stretch of warmer weather, with temperatures potentially rising into the lower 80s across Western New York. However, this warmth will not last long. Forecast models suggest a shift in the long-wave pattern, bringing a trough of low pressure back to the Great Lakes region. This pattern change is expected to usher in a round of cooler air as we move further into the week.
Still, when we run the numbers for the highs and lows over the first week of September, the result is likely to be close to normal for this time of year. This is a concept known as “seasonal” temperatures. This type of analysis is part of how meteorologists determine probabilities in long-range forecasting.
Looking ahead to the second week of September, the latest data indicates an increased likelihood of below-normal temperatures. This time of year, also marks the potential beginning of frost season. On average, the first frost in Western New York occurs around mid-September for communities along the Southern Tier. Closer to Rochester, however, the first frost typically does not arrive until October 17th (nearly a month later).
So, what does a colder-than-normal start to fall mean? There are a few key implications. A shorter growing season could affect local agriculture and gardening, while increased heating demand may lead to higher energy use earlier in the season. Turning on the heat sooner than expected can have a noticeable impact on household budgets.
As always, the News10NBC First Alert meteorologists will continue to monitor and update the forecast as new data becomes available.
First Alert Weather In-Depth: Is fall coming early to Rochester? WHEC.com.
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