As the Blue Jays continue to trend toward selling, there’ll be an increased focus on some of their short-term veterans — rentals in particular. Right-hander Kevin Gausman stands as one of the most prominent names who could be shipped out if Toronto does sell, recent struggles notwithstanding. Gausman’s five-year $110MM contract, which expires at season’s end, allows him to block trades to up to eight clubs. Those teams, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, include the White Sox, Pirates, Brewers, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, A’s and Reds.
Many of the clubs on that list aren’t going to be in the market for a veteran rental anyhow. The Mets, A’s and Reds are clear sellers. The Mariners’ rotation already runs quite deep. The Tigers are on the buy-versus-sell bubble, but even if they opt to add, Gausman’s salary would probably be cumbersome given their luxury tax status. The Pirates’ rotation already got a nice boost with Jared Jones‘ return. A rental starter probably isn’t high on their list of items to add right now, and he’d be a pricey addition for a typically low-payroll club with other needs to address.
[Related — Trade Deadline Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays]
The White Sox and Brewers stand as two notable teams to which Gausman could block a deal. Both might have some interest, though his $23MM salary could be a hindrance to interest from the Brewers’ end. As of this writing, Gausman is still owed just under $8.04MM. That number will be down to $6.92MM on deadline day. The Jays could always bridge that gap by including cash, but that’d mean a steeper asking price in terms of prospects for Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold. They’d also still have to convince Gausman to waive his no-trade protection, of course.
The ChiSox stand as the most obvious suitor for Gausman on this list, and their payroll is so low right now ($89.4MM as of yesterday, per MLBTR’s new payroll tracker) that money shouldn’t be a big issue on any acquisition. It’s possible that Gausman simply put the Sox on there since they weren’t a competitive team at the time he made the call in the offseason and that he’d now welcome the opportunity, but that’s speculation. There’s no real way of knowing his exact preferences, but he’s expressed conflicting emotions on the possibility of a trade.
Mitch Bannon of The Athletic writes that Gausman was choked up ahead of yesterday’s game when discussing the matter with reporters. Said Gausman: “I told my wife yesterday, ‘How lucky have we been to be here?’ To be in a place long enough that we’re sad to leave.”
Gausman called signing in Toronto the best decision of his career. He went on to explain that he hopes to show his young daughters all over Canada and bring them to Jays games fans following retirement. At the same time, he also acknowledged that he would “love to have another opportunity” at chasing a championship. (Readers are encouraged to check out Bannon’s article in full, as it’s rife with poignant comments from Gausman that serve as a reminder of the human component of the transactions we gobble up this time of year.)
Through his first dozen starts this season, the 35-year-old Gausman looked well on his way to another season meriting at least some down-ballot Cy Young votes. Gausman has thrice garnered Cy Young consideration in his career — twice during his current run with the Jays. He finished as high as third in AL Cy Young voting back in 2023. From Opening Day through May 27, Gausman logged a sharp 3.13 ERA with a slightly above-average 23.6% strikeout rate and an elite 4.3% walk rate. He allowed just 0.78 homers per nine frames. That didn’t make him a Cy Young front-runner, but he was certainly on the periphery.
Instead, the opposite has played out. Gausman has mixed a couple of one-run gems in over his past nine trips to the mound, but there’s been far more bad than good. Despite holding the Yankees and Mets to one run apiece over a combined 13 innings in a pair of June starts, Gausman is lugging around an ugly 6.56 ERA over his past nine trips to the hill. His strikeout rate is right in line with its prior levels (24.2%), but his walk rate has more than doubled (10.4%) and he’s surrendered an average of 1.74 homers per nine innings.
Clearly, Gausman’s command hasn’t been anywhere near as sharp as usual over the past seven weeks or so. There’s been no indication he’s dealing with anything physical. His velocity is unchanged, and the Jays haven’t said anything about a potential injury. Perhaps he’s been tipping pitches, struggling with some mechanical difficulties or both. Whatever the reason behind the slump, he’s inflated his ERA up to 4.51. Metrics like SIERA (3.88) and FIP (3.68) paint a more favorable picture, but any team acquiring him would be making a bet on rehabbing the right-hander’s typically excellent command.
Of course, the Jays have 21 other teams with which they can freely discuss Gausman. He’d have no say over a potential trade to clubs like the Phillies, Cubs, Braves, Rays, Padres and D-backs — all of whom are on the hunt for rotation arms. Gausman isn’t going to command an elite prospect package, given his contract status and recent downturn in results, but he has an outstanding track record and has been an obvious playoff-caliber starter for more than a half decade now … with the exception of the past few weeks.
The Blue Jays lost again last night, falling 4-2 to the division-rival Rays. They’re squarely in the AL East cellar and sit 6.5 games back of a Wild Card berth in an American League playoff chase that has been punctuated by mediocrity. The road ahead doesn’t get easier. Shane Bieber — another impending free agent who could be on the move — takes the ball against Tampa Bay for a series finale today. After that, the Jays head to Boston for three against baseball’s hottest team, followed by three games in D.C. against one of the sport’s most surprisingly competitive clubs. They’ll host another unexpected contender, the Cardinals, for three games leading into the Aug. 3 deadline.
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