Aces vs Mercury: Best Bets, Player Props & Computer Picks – Aug. 21 ...Middle East

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Aces vs Mercury: Best Bets, Player Props & Computer Picks – Aug. 21

Two of the WNBA’s best scorers — A’ja Wilson (second, 22.9 points per game) and Satou Sabally (10th, 17.1) — face off when the Las Vegas Aces (22-14) host the Phoenix Mercury (21-13) on Thursday, August 21, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET.

Our computer predictions for Thursday’s game may help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.

    Pick the Mercury (+1.5) to Cover

    The Aces have put together a record of 18-18-0 against the spread this season. The Mercury are 19-15-0 against the spread this year. The Aces have an ATS record of 12-11 when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites. In games they have played as 1.5-point underdogs or more, the Mercury have an ATS record of 7-5.

    Take the Under (170.5)

    In 14 games this season, the Aces and their opponents have gone over 170.5 total points. The Mercury have played nine games this season that have had more than 170.5 combined points scored. The teams average 166.2 points per game combined, 4.3 fewer than this matchup’s over/under. Opponents of these two teams combine to average 162.7 points per game, 7.8 fewer points than this matchup’s over/under. The Aces have had an average of 164.5 points in their games this season, 6.0 fewer than this matchup’s total. The average over/under for Mercury outings this season is 162.9, 7.6 fewer points than this game’s point total.

    Back the Aces on the Moneyline (-124)

    The Aces have put together a 19-6 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 76% of those games). The Mercury have entered the game as underdogs 12 times this season and won six, or 50%, of those games. In games they have played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -124 or shorter, the Aces have a 17-6 record (winning 73.9% of their games). The Mercury have entered 12 games this season as the underdog by +104 or more and are 6-6 in those contests. The implied moneyline probability in this matchup gives the Aces a 55.4% chance to win. The implied probability of a win by the Mercury based on the moneyline is 49.0%.

    Top Aces Props

    Name Points O/U Rebounds O/U Assists O/U A’ja Wilson 24.5 11.5 – Jackie Young 16.5 – –

    Top Mercury Props

    Name Points O/U Rebounds O/U Assists O/U Kahleah Copper 16.5 – – Satou Sabally 15.5 5.5 – Alyssa Thomas 14.5 9.5 8.5

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