EURNOK — upside risk (base case dips toward ~11.75 first)
Trade idea from the bank: Go long EURNOK on a clean break and hold above 12.00, or buy dips into seasonal late-year NOK softness; avoid structural NOK longs for now.
Why:
Norges Bank set to cut in September and keep easing → weaker NOK carry support.
Potential ECB hawkish turn next year on fiscal-led inflation risks → wider EUR–NOK differentials.
Oil headwinds: OPEC supply increases and near-term surplus lean NOK-negative.
Seasonality: NOK typically weakens into autumn/December.
USDNOK — downside risk (medium-term)
Trade idea from the bank: Short USDNOK on rallies (recent supply 10.2–10.3), with a medium-term bias toward ~9.43 by end-2026.
Why:
US financing strain: Bigger deficits and heavier Treasury issuance as major holders step back → need for higher yields and/or weaker USD.
External balance mix: High share of US liabilities in government paper heightens USD depreciation risk.
Relative growth and flows: Higher US tariffs could cool US demand while euro-area fiscal push attracts capital away from the US, pressuring the USD.
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