A-level students who miss their grades face a battle for university places in clearing due to predictions of the “smartest” cohort in years.
Exam insiders have predicted this year’s students could be “slightly more academically able” than previous years, meaning more pupils are likely to get the grades they need for their university place.
This could mean fewer places at top universities available in clearing for pupils who missed their A-level grades or who exceeded expectations and want to “trade up”, according to higher education experts.
Students in England, Northern Ireland and Wales will get their A-level results on Thursday.
Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute think-tank, said that better grades would mean “a higher proportion of students will have got their offers, but it might mean there ends up being fewer places in clearing”.
And Lee Elliot Major, a professor of social mobility at Exeter University, said an uplift in A-level results means it will be “more competitive for getting into those highly selective institutions”.
There could be fewer places at top universities in clearance for pupils who missed their A-level grades (Photo: Chris Ison/PA Wire)It is understood that the proportion of top A-level grades this summer is likely to be higher than pre-Covid years – and potentially slightly higher than 2024, which saw the best grades in history in a non-pandemic year.
Last year, 27.8 per cent of entries achieved A or A* grades, surpassing the former record of 27 per cent in 2010 and 2011.
Leading Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research (CEER) at the University of Buckingham, has raised concerns that grade inflation “may be creeping back in again”.
In a report published ahead of results day, he said this year’s grades are “likely to be close to what they were in 2024”, adding that last year’s grade pattern “could be the start of a new normal”.
But insiders have insisted that higher results are likely to be because the 2025 cohort was the first to return to normal grading at GCSE, following years of grade inflation during the pandemic.
They have mused that despite this, many sixth forms held their entry requirements, potentially leading to a “slightly smaller, slightly smarter” cohort compared to the total number of 18-year-olds.
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Jo Saxton, CEO of Ucas and former chief regulator of Ofqual, said in a Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) webinar on Tuesday that there is likely to be “fractionally higher prior attainment across the cohort”.
She explained: “This cohort are the first to sit their level three qualifications, where they had the pre-pandemic standard reinstated on their GCSEs.
“The practical consequence of that is that fewer students than in recent years actually met the entry criteria that most schools and colleges would set for progression into A-level subjects.
“So you can see in the data, it’s a slightly smaller A-level cohort than we’ve seen for a while, particularly in contrast to the size of the 18-year-old population. It probably means that there’s fractionally higher prior attainment across the cohort. This is me speculating, as a former chief regulator.”
Hillman, from Hepi, said annual grade increases must be “monitored closely” to prevent grade inflation from blurring the value of qualifications, making it difficult for universities and employers to understand who got the top results.
“It really matters that this is a blip, not a trend,” he said. “If we get back on the grade inflation escalator, then you devalue the currency of the qualification.”
Professor Major, from the University of Exeter, said that higher grades overall will mean “for the highly selective courses, it’s going to be quite competitive at the upper end of the marketplace”.
“It will be really challenging for some if you’ve dropped a grade, or if you haven’t quite got the grade that you predicted,” he told The i Paper.
Hillman added that it will be “easy” for top universities to fill their places, but less prestigious institutions will still be fighting for enough students to fill their courses amid growing financial troubles.
He said: “If you’re a prestigious university, it’s dead easy to recruit and suck people up from elsewhere in the system. If you’re somewhat less prestigious, then you might get hit by all these things working their way through the system.
“So first of all, people are not applying in as big numbers as we were expecting. Then there’s a bit of grade inflation, so students might be able to find a place at a Russell Group university.”
The latest Ucas data shows a record 94.5 per cent of applicants who applied by the January deadline had already received at least one offer.
“When offer-making is high, this typically translates into more acceptances, meaning there may be slightly fewer courses in clearing come results day compared to last year,” a Ucas spokesperson said.
But the organisation added that it was still expecting that “record numbers of students will get a place at university or college this year”, urging young people to have “plenty of confidence as we head into results day”.
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