Our leaders have a duty to prepare us for nuclear war – now ...Middle East

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Our leaders have a duty to prepare us for nuclear war – now

Readers who grew up during the Cold War will remember sombre public information films which warned of the dangers and horrors of a nuclear conflict between East and West. In Britain, the Central Office of Information commissioned a series of 20 short films under the title Protect and Survive, to be broadcast in the event of war; featuring the stern, clipped narration of Patrick Allen, they dealt with subjects like “What to Do When the Warnings Sound”, “What to Put in Your Fall-out Room”, “Water and Food”, and “Casualties”.

The idea of public education and preparation for the devastation which would be caused by an exchange of nuclear weapons began 75 years ago, on 12 August 1950. The United States Atomic Energy Commission issued a thick volume entitled The Effects of Atomic Weapons, running to nearly 500 pages, which sought to explain what would happen in the event of a nuclear conflict, what the dangers would be, and what mitigation might be undertaken.

    It was prepared under the direction of Los Alamos National Laboratory, which had co-ordinated the Manhattan Project. The chairman of the editorial board, Professor Joseph O Hirschfelder, wrote in the introduction that “just as our ancestors learned to face the perils of cholera and smallpox epidemics, so must modern man learn to live with the man-made danger of atomic bomb attack”.

    The advice for a nuclear attack seems laughably inadequate now. Perhaps the most famous guidance became known as “duck and cover”, which gave instructions for when an air blast actually took place.

    “If a person is in the open when the sudden illumination is apparent, then the best plan is instantaneously to drop to the ground, while curling up to shade the bare arms and hands, neck, and face with the clothed body.”

    This position was to be maintained for 10 seconds, after which “it is permissible to stand up and look around to see what action appears advisable.”

    If we think now that lying down and covering the face and hands against the explosion of a nuclear bomb is absurd, The Effects of Atomic Weapons was nevertheless inspired by an important principle: to warn the public, as far as possible, what might happen in a nuclear war, and include them in an ongoing conversation about making the best preparations and mitigating the risks.

    Is this an idea we need to revisit, albeit in a way relevant to the early 21st century? As we commemorate 80 years since the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki – still the only uses of nuclear weapons in war – we are in what the Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, has called “a third nuclear age”. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly rattled his nuclear sabre over the war in Ukraine, and the UK is ordering new F-35A aircraft from Lockheed Martin to participate in Nato’s Dual Capable Aircraft mission which can deliver tactical nuclear bombs.

    The Strategic Defence Review published earlier this summer emphasised the seriousness of the global security situation, and across Europe there is an acceptance that we will need to spend more money on defence to counter new and more serious threats. The Prime Minister’s foreword to the review spoke of the need to “foster a collective national endeavour through which the state, business, and society unite in pursuit of the security of the nation and the prosperity of its people”, and the Defence Secretary, John Healey, has urged a “whole-of-society approach” to “widen participation in national resilience and renew the nation’s contract with those who serve”.

    A ceremony at Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park marks the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing in 1945 (Photo: Buddhika Weerasinghe/Getty)

    There is still a sense that people do not quite see the immediacy of the threats not simply to British interests around the world but to the UK itself. Below the nuclear threshold, we have seen the fatal poisoning of Russian defector Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006; the attempted murder of former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury in 2018; the arson attack on a warehouse in east London last year orchestrated by agents of the paramilitary Wagner Group; and repeated suspicious activity by Russian ships in the vicinity of undersea cables in the English Channel.

    square HAMISH DE BRETTON-GORDON

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    It is a great leap from all of these potentially lethal but limited activities to a nuclear war, but the danger clearly exists. We are nowhere near prepared for a “whole-of-society” response; even persuading the public of the need for higher defence spending is a challenge. Measures beyond that, in terms of the resilience of critical national infrastructure, preparation for potential shortages if supply chains are disrupted or defence against kinetic military attack, have barely registered.

    The Effects of Atomic Weapons of 1950 was a wordy, technical document. We can do better now, and we must. Its spirit, if not its form, should be a spur to begin that vital national debate over the threats facing us as a society, and how each of us can prepare, individually and collectively. We cannot wait for escalation: we have to start now.

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