Drivers on the M25 faces up a decade of disruption due to Heathrow’s plan to rip up part of the motorway for a third runaway, experts and campaigners have warned.
Airport chiefs have set out a £49bn expansion plan which would see the new runaway built within the next 10 years, promising they will not ask for any taxpayers’ money for the mammoth project.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said she wants to see “spades in the ground” at the west London airport before 2029, and for planes to take off from the new runway by 2035. She has put it at the centre of her plans for economic growth in the UK.
Heathrow bosses are promising to spend £1.5bn to move the very busiest stretch of the M25 – between junctions 14 and 15 – into a tunnel running underneath the third runway.
They plan to build a new, wider section of motorway “offline”, away from the west London site, and believe it can be installed in a way that involves minimal disruption on the roads and eases congestion in the long term.
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However, experts, campaigners and MPs have warned of years of disruption on the M25 – nicknamed the “road to hell” due to its frequent gridlock – and on other streets around Heathrow.
They also fear extra, ongoing traffic congestion and air pollution once the runway is in place.
Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to “override the whims of Nimbys” and is bringing forward new legislation to curb the ability of campaigners to block such projects.
Dr Alex Chapman, senior economist at the New Economics Foundation, said there was the “potential for loss of economic activity from road disruption” from the third runaway.
He said “optimism bias” meant big infrastructure projects often took longer and cost more than initially estimated.
“You can see how a six-year construction time is being overly optimistic for this kind of complicated scheme,” said Dr Chapman on the Government’s desire to see construction take place between 2029 and 2035.
The economist is also cynical about the airport’s claim that the project will not involve taxpayers’ money. “It’s highly unlikely that Heathrow and the private sector will be paying for everything,” said Dr Chapman.
Traffic gridlock on the M25 (Photo: Ben Whitley/PA)Heathrow chiefs say a third runway would boost much-needed capacity, moving the busiest airport from 80 million to 150 million passengers a year. The number of flights – capped at 420,000 a year – could increase to 756,000.
Airport bosses claim that the expansion – which will also include a new terminal ‘T5X’, expanded Terminal 2 and three new satellite terminals – will add 0.43 per cent to UK GDP.
Dr Guy Gratton, an expert in aviation and the environment, said there was a strong economic case and the six-year construction time frame was “reasonable”. But he warned of extra traffic congestion and air pollution during and after the project.
“For the communities surrounding the airport, a huge amount of pollution they will suffer will come from the extra passengers coming to and from the airport,” said Dr Gratton, an associate professor at Cranfield University.
He warned that the lack of any commitment to new public transport links was “deeply unsatisfactory”, adding: “There is a need for coherent public transport, otherwise the worst fears of environmental campaigners will come true.”
He said: “I can’t see how this will happen without significant Government intervention. It’s going to be expensive.”
Paul McGuinness, chair of the No Third Runway Coalition, said he thought Heathrow’s expansion could lead to up to 10 years of upheaval to the M25 and surrounding roads. He also warned that thousands of people living nearby might have to be rehomed.
“Heathrow is hemmed in by suburbia, so it becomes frighteningly expensive and disruptive to expand,” said the campaigner. “We’re looking at a decade of disruption.
“Not only will you have extra disruption and congestion from the tunnelling [of the M25], but the enormous amount of construction work at the airport itself will add to heavy road traffic.”
Rachel Reeves wants ‘spades in the ground’ on the third runway before 2029 (Photo: Peter Cziborra/PA)McGuiness said he was sceptical about the Government’s timetable: “The lesson from HS2 is that estimates tend to be too optimistic, and that it will go on longer and cost will be far greater than the government assumes.”
Justine Bayley, chair of the Stop Heathrow Expansion campaign, lives in Harmondsworth, just north of the planned third runway. She said she feared she could be “living on a building site for many years”.
Bayley also believes road disruption could go on for “at least 10 years” if there is a major expansion of the airport’s terminals.
“There will be more vehicles bringing passengers, so heavier traffic in the long term. It will make noise pollution and air pollution worse, she said. “You have villages and communities, people who have lived there for decades, being uprooted if a third runway is built.”
Rival expansion plan ‘also disruptive’
The Arora Group, founded by billionaire Surinder Arora, has submitted a rival £25bn expansion plan ahead of the Government’s 31 July deadline for proposals.
The hotel tycoon’s company has proposed a shorter third runway which could avoid the need to divert and build over the M25.
The No Third Runway campaign remains cynical. “There will still be road disruption, the demolition of homes. So both plans will still be enormously disruptive – it’s just a question of scale,” said McGuiness.
Heathrow’s chief executive Thomas Woldbye said the airport, owned by international investors, was “uniquely placed to do this for the country”.
Woldbye said it had “never been more important or urgent” to expand, arguing Heathorw was “effectively operating at capacity to the detriment of trade and connectivity”.
The Confederation of British Industry, British Chambers of Commerce, MakeUK, Federation of Small Businesses and Institute of Directors have all backed the third runaway – arguing it will unlock further investment.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to look at the submissions before launching a consultation. Planning applications are not expected until 2028.
While Reeves and Keir Starmer are keen to get the project moving, they face significant anger from Labour MPs over a third runaway. When the Commons voted in 2018 to approve the expansion, 94 Labour MPs opposed it.
Labour MP Clive Lewis told The i Paper it would be an “unmitigated environmental disaster”, adding: “People in the area will have to deal with more pollution, more noise and more road congestion.”
Labour MP Ruth Cadbury, chair of the Transport Committee, said she was yet to see “robust evidence” that a third runway could meet Labour’s own tests – including that expansion could be compatible with targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Olney said a third runway would “inevitably bring disruption to our roads and public transport” as well as “social and environmental costs”.
Howver, although still divisive, a third runway is likely to get the backing of a majority of MPs if there was evet to be another vote.
Reeves said the Government was “one step closer to expanding our biggest airport” and it would help “kickstart economic growth and put more pounds in people’s pockets”.
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