Sir Keir Starmer is facing a major backbench rebellion over his proposed welfare reforms, which some predict could threaten his future as Prime Minister.
More than 120 Labour MPs have backed an amendment that could derail Government plans to cut Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and alter elements of universal credit.
Starmer has insisted the reforms are “progressive” and essential to repairing a system “broken” by 14 years of Conservative rule. But the scale of internal resistance, including opposition from select committee chairs, the Mayor of London, and former ministers, has left his authority under pressure.
Former Work and Pensions Secretary Lord Blunkett has warned that if the bill fails, Starmer may be forced into a confidence vote. “If they lost it, they’d have to go for a vote of confidence,” he told LBC.
Here are the possible scenarios for what could happen when MPs vote on his welfare reforms:
If the welfare bill fails, Starmer could choose to treat the vote as a test of confidence in his leadership.
This would echo historic precedent, where governments have attached confidence to divisive legislation to enforce discipline.
A similar scenario led to the downfall of Liz Truss’s short-lived time as Prime Minister. She told MPs that a vote on fracking amounted to a confidence vote in the government in an effort to get them in line, but when it failed, her premiership unravelled within 24 hours.
Losing such a vote would leave Starmer with two options: resign, or request a dissolution of Parliament and trigger a general election.
Starmer has so far rejected this option, telling Sky News: “It’s not a confidence vote.”
Opposition tables a no-confidence motion
If Starmer is defeated, the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch could table a motion of no confidence in the Government. This would be extremely unlikely to succeed in ousting the PM because the Tories have nowhere near enough MPs to win a vote against him without the support of other parties.
It is very difficult to conceive Labour MPs joining the Conservatives to vote against their leader in a motion tabled by the Opposition.
Even though it would be near-impossible for the motion to achieve its aim, constitutional convention suggests that time would be found for such a debate if it is properly worded. If, under the incredibly implausible scenario that the motion passed, Starmer would be expected to resign or advise the King to dissolve Parliament.
The last time this happened was in 1979, when James Callaghan’s Labour Government fell. Although Labour holds a significant majority today, a coordinated rebellion could bring the Government down, especially if a handful of Labour MPs abstain or vote against.
However, considering that the election was less than a year ago, the chances of Labour MPs staging a Parliamentary coup against Starmer are slim to none.
In the unlikely event Starmer chose to resign, either of his own volition or if forced by a confidence motion, the Prime Minister would first travel to Buckingham Palace to tender his resignation in person.
The King, whose role is mainly ceremonial, must ensure the Government can command the confidence of the House of Commons. In the absence of any clear alternative, the likely outcome is a dissolution of Parliament and a general election.
Because Labour holds a large majority, the party would have the opportunity to form a government under a new leader without holding an election.
In practice, this would depend on whether the Parliamentary Labour Party could unite quickly behind a consensus figure. If a successor emerged — such as Deputy Leader Angela Rayner or another senior frontbencher — the King could ask them to form a government.
Under Labour rules, a full leadership election must be held if more than one candidate is nominated. The process involves weeks of nominations, shortlisting, and balloting by members and affiliates — unless the National Executive Committee agrees to abbreviate the timetable.
If Starmer resigned before a successor was chosen, the party would need to appoint a temporary caretaker Prime Minister. This would almost certainly be someone from the existing Cabinet who commands the confidence of the Commons in the short term.
What happens if the welfare bill isn’t defeated?
Of course, Starmer could make enough concessions to reduce the size of the rebellion so that the bill passes successfully by watering down any proposed changes to the welfare system to soften their impact.
If those concessions are not enough to placate the rebels, but the bill still passes, Starmer will be in a much weakened position.
If Starmer wins the welfare vote but only narrowly — particularly with support from Conservative MPs — his leadership could still be badly damaged.
Ministers have been seeking to avoid a rebellion, with Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall reportedly offering concessions. But if dozens of Labour MPs defy the whip, Starmer risks appearing dependent on Tory votes to govern, a perception that could erode his authority.
In what would be an extremely unlikely outcome of such a scenario, Labour backbenchers could trigger a Parliamentary Labour Party motion of no confidence. While symbolic rather than binding, this would mirror the 2016 vote against Jeremy Corbyn, which Corbyn survived, but which severely weakened his leadership.
It is unlikely this would happen at this stage because there is no clear sign of an organised rival against Starmer.
But, if discontent continues to mount, a challenger could seek a formal leadership contest. Labour rules allow any MP who gains the support of 20 per cent of Labour MPs and affiliated bodies to stand, prompting a vote among party members.
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