Avalanche Journal: Brock Nelson signing adds stability, but not without risk ...Middle East

Stability and risk are normally contradictory terms, but the Colorado Avalanche’s recent big decision ties them together.

The Avs made a significant commitment ahead of offseason shopping season, retaining center Brock Nelson on a three-year contract with an annual $7.5 million cap hit. The move gives the Avalanche the most stability it’s had at a key spot in the depth chart in years. But that doesn’t mean the deal doesn’t also come with some risk.

First, the stability. Colorado’s quest to find a consistent No. 2 center to deploy behind Nathan MacKinnon has been one of the defining roster storylines of the past three seasons. General manager Chris MacFarland and his staff have done some strong work to keep the Avalanche among the league’s Stanley Cup contenders despite losing Nazem Kadri to Calgary, captain Gabe Landeskog to a defective right knee and several depth players from the 2022 run to one of the NHL’s universal truths — secondary guys who win the Cup get paid, typically elsewhere.

That said, how the Avs have navigated replacing Kadri has had some hiccups along the way. Ryan Johansen was a miss and cost Colorado an upgraded draft pick to include him in the trade for Sean Walker at the 2024 trade deadline.

The Avs used another premium asset, defenseman Bo Byram, to replace him with Casey Mittelstadt. He looked like a solid long-term solution and earned a three-year contract after a nice end to the regular season and a solid playoff run.

Then Mittelstadt went into a huge funk this past season, and the Avs had to trade a second-round pick and a decent prospect to swap him for Charlie Coyle, who had far less production and slots in as the third center. And then there’s the price Colorado paid for Nelson, which was significant.

The end result is Nelson for the next three years on a market-rate contract. Eight centers will be 31 or older next season with a salary cap hit that starts at $6 million to $7 million. Nelson was more productive last season than five of the other seven (one of the two who had better numbers was Kadri).

The process from Kadri to Nelson might cost the asset-thin Avs in a future trade, but they have a productive veteran who can excel in this role. Assuming Landeskog can stay healthy and Valeri Nichushkin’s off-ice troubles are far in the rear-view mirror, the Avs could have the best top-six in the NHL next year.

Now, about the risk.

First, there is Nelson’s age. He turns 34 years old in October. There is plenty of age-curve-related data out there. We know that players at this stage of their career are in some level of decline. The best ones minimize it, but even guys like Sidney Crosby and Jaromir Jagr weren’t quite as good at 34, 35 and 36 as they were earlier in their careers.

The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn had a list of comparable players right after the signing that didn’t inspire confidence. There’s also another player who will be 34 next season who’s been in the news this past week. New York Rangers forward Chris Kreider also just had his best seasons at age 30, 31 and 32, but his age-33 year was a precipitous fall from grace and he now plays for Anaheim because of it.

There are a few reasons to believe Nelson is a guy who can mitigate some of the age-related decline. He just had the three best seasons of his career at ages 30, 31 and 32. Last year, his age-33 season, was his fourth-best in total production.

It also seems reasonable that more players are going to soften the landing at the end of their careers thanks to modern fitness and recovery regimens. Nelson has trained with some of MacKinnon’s people in recent offseasons, and now he’s going to have year-round, VIP access.

There’s also the surrounding context. No disrespect to the Islanders, but skating alongside two of Artturi Lehkonen, Martin Necas, Nichushkin or a healthy Landeskog could be one of the best lines he’s ever played on. And he’s never had a player like MacKinnon to absorb the attention of an opposing team’s top defensive players. Or a player like Cale Makar to get him the puck in open ice.

The Avs have to expect some attrition from Nelson’s overall game in the coming seasons, but he might be able to keep it to a minimum.

There’s also some risk in what the Avalanche gave up to get Nelson. The contract and the trade aren’t part of the same transaction, but had Nelson signed with another team next month, giving up Calum Ritchie and a future first-round pick for 26 games of the veteran center had the potential to be one of the worst trades in franchise history.

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Moving forward? It can be a win-win for both sides. Ritchie was the club’s top prospect, but players of his pedigree don’t often have a slight dip in production in their post-draft seasons or end up as the fourth-most productive forward on a CHL team during an extended playoff run.

Ritchie did. Whether or not he could become the Avs’ No. 2 center in the next season or three was not a certainty.

What happens next with Ritchie or the likely 2026 first-round pick isn’t of the Avs’ concern, but the club is likely to hear less external noise about it if Nelson has a healthy, productive few years in Denver. Nelson gives the Avs a better chance to win the Stanley Cup in 2026 than Ritchie would have. Likely in 2027 and maybe 2028, as well.

It’s not a slam-dunk, team-friendly deal, but bringing Nelson back on this contract offers stability the club craved at a key spot and there’s sound logic behind the decision.

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