The Pac-12 doesn’t have a vote in the College Football Playoff’s revamped governing structure — neither does the ACC or Big 12, for that matter — but the conference has a strong preference for one of the two formats currently under consideration for 2026 and beyond.
“The at-large model is the right one,” commissioner Teresa Gould said this week. “You compete on the field for access.”
In an expanded playoff, the at-large model would guarantee five spots for conference champions and leave 11 for at-large teams.
The other option for the SEC and Big Ten, which control the CFP format for the 2026-31 contract term, is what Gould calls the “allocation model.”
It would assign four automatic bids to the SEC and Big Ten, two to the ACC and Big 12 and one to the highest-ranked team from all other conferences. (Because of the numeric breakdown, it’s often referred to as the 4-4-2-2-1 model. The final three spots in the 16-team field would be assigned to at-large teams.)
While the SEC and Big Ten have the last word, they are required to take input from the other eight conference commissioners (and Notre Dame’s athletic director) on the CFP’s management committee.
Not surprisingly, turf protection is atop everyone’s agenda. The Big 12 and ACC support the 5+11 format, as does the SEC. The Big Ten favors the radical model with 13 automatic qualifiers. A decision is required by December.
“Now that I’ve been involved in the CFP for 15 months,” Gould told the Hotline, referring to her time leading the Pac-12, “I can say that every commissioner comes into the room with stakeholders they are paid to serve.”
Whichever model emerges from the negotiations between the Big Ten and SEC will guarantee a spot for the highest-ranked team from the collection of conferences that includes the Pac-12, American, Sun Belt, MAC, Mountain West and Conference USA.
The timing works perfectly for the Pac-12, which will add Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Utah State, Colorado State and at least one more football-playing member on July 1, 2026 — the same competition year that marks the start of the revamped CFP. (Washington State and Oregon State are competing as a two-team conference until next summer.)
While her league will be classified on the same tier as the so-called Group of Five, not the Power Four, Gould doesn’t see the rebuilt Pac-12 fitting into either of the established tiers.
“We are in a lane of our own, and the metrics support that,” she said. “We’re closer to the ACC and Big 12 than to the other folks.”
That assessment is likely to elicit wide eyes and snarky responses across college football, but her case comes with an important caveat. It’s based on data exclusively from a narrow timeframe: the past four years, which coincide with the implementation of NIL and the transfer portal.
Gould views performance data from the 2010s as completely outdated, akin to counting with an abacus.
“The marketplace has changed drastically,” she said. “The longer historical metrics don’t make sense to me.”
The metrics that matter to Gould were published by the Pac-12 recently and cover the 2021-24 seasons:
— Six of the seven teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 (86 percent) have been ranked in the AP poll, compared to 36 percent of the schools in the American and 33 percent in the restructured Mountain West.
— Five of the seven teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 (71 percent) have been ranked by the CFP selection committee, compared to 29 percent of the American schools and 22 percent of those in the Mountain West.
But the two CFP formats under consideration don’t reach that level of granularity. They place the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC on one tier and the other six conferences on another. There’s no distinction between the rebuilt Pac-12 and the Sun Belt or MAC.
Based on recent history, the American, with Memphis, Tulane, Army and Navy, seemingly stands as the Pac-12’s primary competition for the CFP berth guaranteed to the highest-ranked conference champion from outside the Power Four.
Although similar in their classifications, the two leagues are starkly different in membership structure.
The American has 14 football schools. The next version of the Pac-12 likely will have either eight or nine, depending on the outcome of the expansion process this spring.
For Gould, remaining lean is essential to the conference’s longer-term strategy. Whether the CFP adopts the model loaded with automatic qualifiers or the format heavy on at-large teams, schedule strength is expected to play an important role in the selection process. It could make all the difference, for example, if the Pac-12 and American champions are both 10-3.
“I don’t think the model changes our mindset in terms of what we’re looking for in future members,” Gould said. “We’re looking for schools that are aligned, on a positive trajectory and willing to invest.”
The conference is considering a plan that would create minimum investment standards in order to create a competitive advantage in the push for CFP bids.
Also critical: playing the strongest non-conference schedules possible.
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Oregon State’s future schedules include Power Four opponents Houston, Texas Tech, Mississippi and Brigham Young, according to the website FBschedules.com.
Washington State is scheduled to play Arizona, Kansas, Kansas State and Washington.
Colorado State has Arizona, Brigham Young, Indiana and Wisconsin.
Fresno State plays USC and Washington.
San Diego State and Utah State play Oklahoma.
And there are other A-level matchups scheduled.
Everything fits together on the competitive terrain for the rebuilt Pac-12 — from the non-conference lineup and the CFP model to the strength-of-schedule metric, Gould’s expansion calculation and how many conference games the Pac-12 should play.
“Anytime you’re talking about the CFP and the at-large bids, you want to understand the selection criteria, and strength of schedule is part of that,” she said. “Our members moving forward are not afraid to play top teams.
“We’re focused on what we can control, and that’s competing at the highest level.”
It seems the Pac-12 isn’t merely attempting to build its plane while flying it.
It’s attempting to build while flying but, because of the unresolved CFP situation, it doesn’t know all the landing coordinates.
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