US tariffs on China are down to 30% while China tariffs on the US are set at 10%.
Even beyond the massive cut in tariffs, 20 percentage points of the US tariffs on China are due to fentanyl and I think there is a path to lowering or eliminating that.
The deal is for 90 days but Treasury Secretary Bessent said that could be extended so long as negotiations are headed in the right direction. I think that leaves importers in a tough spot as they will have to decide on whether to stockpile with 30% tariffs or risk a better/worse outcome.
For now though, there is a huge sigh of relief in markets with S&P 500 futures up 3.2%, oil up 4%, USD/JPY up 280 pips and 2-year yields up 11 bps.
The message there is that US, Chinese and global growth prospects just got much better.
Today is a test: Can these moves be sustained or is there still some skepticism? That will tell us about the underlying strength of the economy.
I think you have to be optimistic here as it looks like Trump doesn't have the appetite for a trade war after all and he's pivoting toward opening up China for US companies. Was the Trump Put in all along?
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